World Economic Outlook Update

World Economic Outlook Update, January 2025: Global Growth: Divergent and Uncertain

Global Growth: Divergent and Uncertain

January 2025

Growth on divergent paths amid elevated policy uncertainty

World Economic Outlook Update, January 2025: Global Growth: Divergent and Uncertain

Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent both in 2025 and 2026, below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.7 percent. The forecast for 2025 is broadly unchanged from that in the October 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO), primarily on account of an upward revision in the United States offsetting downward revisions in other major economies. Global headline inflation is expected to decline to 4.2 percent in 2025 and to 3.5 percent in 2026, converging back to target earlier in advanced economies than in emerging market and developing economies.

Medium-term risks to the baseline are tilted to the downside, while the near-term outlook is characterized by divergent risks. Upside risks could lift already-robust growth in the United States in the short run, whereas risks in other countries are on the downside amid elevated policy uncertainty. Policy-generated disruptions to the ongoing disinflation process could interrupt the pivot to easing monetary policy, with implications for fiscal sustainability and financial stability. Managing these risks requires a keen policy focus on balancing trade-offs between inflation and real activity, rebuilding buffers, and lifting medium-term growth prospects through stepped-up structural reforms as well as stronger multilateral rules and cooperation.

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World Economic Outlook Update, January 2025: Growth Projections (Charts)

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    World Economic Outlook Update, January 2025: Three Essential Questions
    We project global economic growth at 3.3% this year and next. Learn how policymakers can address challenges and boost growth in the latest World Economic Outlook Update.
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      World Economic Outlook Update, January 2025: Three Essential Questions
      • January 17, 2025

      • 00:02:30

      Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook Update, January 2025
      Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent both in 2025 and 2026, below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.7 percent. The forecast for 2025 is broadly unchanged from that in the October 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO).
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          Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook Update, January 2025
          • January 17, 2024

          • 00:47:24

          World Economic Outlook Update, January 2025: Key Facts
          Global growth set to remain steady at 3.3% in 2025-26, below the historical medium-term average of 3.7%. An upward revision for US growth offsets downward revisions in other major economies.
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            World Economic Outlook Update, January 2025: Key Facts
            • January 17, 2025

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