World Economic Outlook

Trade and Finance

September 2002

A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund

©2002 International Monetary Fund
Ordering Information


The World Economic Outlook presents the IMF staff's analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries. It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects. It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF's global surveillance activities.

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Contents

290k pdf file Assumptions and Conventions
  Preface
  Foreword
See Also:
Video Webcast: Kenneth Rogoff, the IMF’s Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, introduces the WEO’s analytical chapters on trade and finance.
Transcript
Chapter I.
735k pdf file		 Economic Prospects and Policy Issues
North America: How Well Will the Recovery be Sustained?
Japan: Are Growth Prospects Picking Up at Last?
Western Europe: A Tepid Recovery So Far
Latin America: Heightened Economic and Financial Uncertainties
Emerging Markets in Asia: Consolidating the Recovery
European Union Candidates: Surprisingly Resilient, but Some Policy Pressures
  Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS): Persistent Dichotomy Between Advanced and Less Advanced Reformers
Africa: Establishing the Conditions to Grow out of Poverty
Middle East: Growing Divergences This Year; Better Prospects for 2003
Appendix 1.1. Commodity Markets
References
  Box
1.1  How Will Recent Falls in Equity Markets Affect Activity?
1.2  Market Expectations of Exchange Rate Movements
1.3  Reversal of Fortune: Productivity Growth in Europe and the United States
1.4  Brazil: The Quest to Restore Market Confidence
1.5  Where Is India in Terms of Trade Liberalization?
1.6  Foreign Direct Investment in Africa
  Tables
1.1  Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
1.2  Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment
1.3  Emerging Market Economies: Net Capital Flows
1.4  Selected Economies: Current Account Positions
1.5  Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt
1.6  Selected Western Hemisphere Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
1.7  Selected Asian Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
1.8  European Union Candidates: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
1.9  Commonwealth of Independent States: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
1.10  Selected African Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
1.11  Selected Middle Eastern Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
1.12  The Impact of a $5 a Barrel, Permanent Increase in Oil Prices After a Year
  Figures
1.1  Global Indicators
1.2  Current and Forward-Looking Indicators
1.3  Developments in Mature Financial Markets
1.4  Emerging Market Financial Conditions
1.5  Global Outlook
1.6  United States: Productivity, Profitability, and Investment
1.7  Japan: Costs of Muddling Through
1.8  United States, Euro Area, and United Kingdom: Contribution to Change in GDP Growth
1.9  Selected Western Hemisphere Countries: Exchange Rates and EMBI Yield Spreads
1.10  Selected Western Hemisphere Countries: Public Debt and Foreign Exchange Deposits
1.11  Asia: Deteriorating Fiscal Positions
1.12  Has Asia Become A Commodity Producer?
1.13  Foreign Direct Investment and Enterprise Restructuring in Transition Economies
1.14  European Union Accession Countries: Exports and Market Share Growth
1.15  Developments in Exports, FDI, and Demand for Money in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)
1.16  Impact of Institutional Quality in Africa
1.17  Middle East: Trade Restrictions
1.18  Oil and Non-oil Price Indices
1.19  OPEC Target and Actual Production of Oil
1.20  NYMEX Oil: Implied Volatilities from Options Prices
1.21  Comparison of the Semiconductor Indices, CPU, and DRAM Indices
1.22  Recent and Projected ENSO Effects
1.23  Impulse Response Functions for an ENSO Shock
Chapter II.
593k pdf file		 Essays on Trade and Finance
How Worrisome Are External Imbalances?
How Do Industrial Country Agricultural Policies Affect Developing Countries?
Capital Structure and Corporate Performance Across Emerging Markets
References
  Boxes
2.1  The Global Current Account Discrepancy and Other Statistical Problems
2.2  How Have External Deficits Adjusted in the Past?
2.3  Cross-Country Determinants of Capital Structure
  Tables
2.1  Growth of Output, Domestic and External Demand, 1982–2001
2.2  Average Trend Balance on Goods and Nonfactor Services
2.3  Scenario of Higher Expected Productivity and Alternative Scenario Where Expectations Are Overoptimistic
2.4  Welfare Effects of Industrial, Developing, and Global Agricultural Liberalization
2.5  Welfare Effects of Agricultural Liberalizations by Industrial Countries
2.6  Institutional Factors and Corporate Vulnerabilities
2.7  Macroeconomic Factors and Corporate Vulnerabilities
2.8  Sector- and Firm-Specific Factors and Corporate Vulnerabilities
2.9  Sectoral Composition by Countries
2.10  Measures of Sample Size, 1999
  Figures
2.1  Selected External Sector Variables
2.2  Private Sector Saving and Investment, and Public Sector Balance
2.3  Net Foreign Positions and External Financing Flows
2.4  Assets and Liabilities Positions
2.5  Adjustment of External Imbalances in Industrial Countries, 1973–2001
2.6  Composition of Producer Support Estimates (PSE)
2.7  Changes in Overall Producer Support Estimates (PSE) and Price-based Support, 1986–2001
2.8  Welfare Effects of Agricultural Liberalization: Industrial Versus Developing Countries
2.9  Welfare Effects of Removing Industrial Country Tariffs and Subsidies
2.10  Welfare Effects of Global Agricultural Liberalization
2.11  Welfare Effects of Agricultural Liberalization by Industrial Countries and Per Capita Income
2.12  Total Debt to Total Assets
2.13  Regional Indicators of Corporate Fragility
2.14  Institutional Factors
2.15  Macroeconomic Factors
See Also:
Video Webcast: Tamim Bayoumi, Chief of the World Economic Studies Division, talks about the sustainability of current levels of external imbalances (first essay in Chapter II)
Transcript

Video Webcast: Stephen Tokarick, Senior Economist in the World Economic Studies Division, talks about the benefits to developing countries from liberalizing trade in agriculture, especially in industrial countries (second essay in Chapter II)
Transcript
Video Webcast: Luis Catão, Senior Economist in the World Economic Studies Division, talks about what drives corporate financial vulnerabilities in emerging markets (third essay in Chapter II).
Transcript
Chapter III.
316k pdf file		 Trade and Financial Integration
Increasing Integration in Recent Decades
Comparison with Earlier Historical Periods
Why Does Trade Integration Differ Across Regions?
Consequences of Trade and Financial Integration for Macroeconomic Volatility
Appendix 3.1. Definitions, Data Sources, and Country Coverage
References
  Boxes
3.1  Using Prices to Measure Goods Market Integration
3.2  Transport Costs
3.3  Gravity Model of International Trade
3.4  Vertical Specialization in the Global Economy
3.5  Trade and Growth
  Tables
3.1  Rising Global Integration
3.2  Trade Openness and Saving-Investment Correlations
3.3  Undertrading in Developing Countries, 1995–99
3.4  Changes in Undertrading Over Time
3.5  Bilateral Policy Restrictiveness in Developing Countries, 1997–99
3.6  Gravity Model Estimates
  Figures
3.1  Complementarity of Trade and Financial Integration
3.2  Complementarity of Trade and Financial Integration Across Countries
3.3  Global Integration, 1870–1995
3.4  Why Do Developing Countries Trade Less Than Industrial Countries?
3.5  Why Does East Asia Trade More Than Other Developing Country Regions?
3.6  Factor Content of Net Exports, 1991–2000
3.7  Trade and Financial Openness Across Developing Countries, 1995–99
3.8  Trade and Financial Integration Across Developing Regions 1975–99
3.9  Frequency of External Financial Crises in Developing Countries
3.10  Output Volatility, 1975–99
See Also:
Video Webcast: Thomas Helbling, Senior Economist in the World Economic Studies Division, summarizes Chapter III on trade and financial integration, which addresses—among other things—the frequently neglected complementarity between trade and finance.
Transcript
Annex.
87k pdf file		 Summing Up by the Chair
Major Currency Areas
Emerging Markets
Agricultural Policies
Capital Structure and Corporate Performance
Trade and Financial Intergration
350k pdf file Statistical Appendix
Assumptions
Data and Conventions
Classification of Countries
General Features and Compositions of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification
List of Tables
     Output (Tables 1–7)
     Inflation (Tables 8–13)
     Financial Policies (Tables 14–21)
     Foreign Trade (Tables 22–26)
     Current Account Transactions (Tables 27–32)
     Balance of Payments and External Financing
      (Tables 33–37)
     External Debt and Debt Service (Tables 38–43)
     Flow of Funds (Table 44)
     Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Tables 45–46)
  Box
A.1  Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Advanced Economies
123k pdf file World Economic Outlook and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics