Emerging Markets in Transition: Growth Prospects and Challenges

By Luis M. Cubeddu, Alexander Culiuc, Ghada Fayad, Yuan Gao, Kalpana Kochhar, Annette J Kyobe, Ceyda Oner, Roberto Perrelli, Sarah Sanya, Evridiki Tsounta, Zhongxia Zhang

June 12, 2014

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Luis M. Cubeddu, Alexander Culiuc, Ghada Fayad, Yuan Gao, Kalpana Kochhar, Annette J Kyobe, Ceyda Oner, Roberto Perrelli, Sarah Sanya, Evridiki Tsounta, and Zhongxia Zhang. Emerging Markets in Transition: Growth Prospects and Challenges, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2014) accessed December 21, 2024

Disclaimer: This Staff Discussion Note represents the views of the authors and does not necessarily represent IMF views or IMF policy. The views expressed herein should be attributed to the authors and not to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management. Staff Discussion Notes are published to elicit comments and to further debate.

Summary

After a short-lived slowdown in the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis and a swift rebound, emerging markets (EM) are now entering a period of slower growth. In fact, growth is now lower than the post-crisis peak of 2010-11, as well as the rates seen in the decade before the crisis. This raises the question of whether EMs can bounce back to the growth rates seen in the last decade or whether their prospects are dimmer than thought a few years ago. This SDN we will explore the drivers of the slowdown, how changes in external conditions that supported high growth in EMs will affect them over the medium term, and the policy priorities needed to sustain the growth rates seen in the past decades. In doing so, the paper differentiates EMs along various dimensions (e.g. degree of commodity dependence, trade and financial openness) to highlight the need to tailor policy priorities.

Subject: Commodities, Commodity prices, Financial crises, Global financial crisis of 2008-2009, Prices, Production, Productivity, Total factor productivity

Keywords: Africa, Commodity, Commodity dependence, Commodity prices, Commodity-exporting EMs, Convergence, EM growth, Emerging markets, EMs Decelerating Simultaneously, Excess demand, Export-oriented EMs, Global, Global financial crisis of 2008-2009, Growth, Heterogeneity, Interest rate, Physical capital, Potential growth, Productivity, Productivity gain, SDN, Structural reform, Total factor productivity, Trading partner growth, Value chain

Publication Details

Pages:

37
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Staff Discussion Notes No. 2014/006
Stock No:

SDNEA2014006
ISBN:

9781498327664
ISSN:

2617-6750

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