Policy Papers

May 11, 2018

FY2019-FY2021 Medium-Term Budget

Description: The FY 19 budget proposal is formulated against the backdrop of a strengthening global recovery and broadly balanced near term risks. The budget reflects a solid income position and a multi-year strategic agenda—operationalized in the Global Policy Agenda (GPA) and Board Work Program—to help members take advantage of the current cyclical upswing to bolster growth, harness the benefits of technology for all, while promoting resilience and responding swiftly to requests for program support.

The net administrative budget for FY 19 remains unchanged in real terms, save for the extra customary travel allocation for Annual Meetings held abroad. This represents the seventh year in a row of flat real budget envelopes (excluding the ½ percentage point security related increase in FY 17). The proposal reflects reallocations of some 2½ percent of the net budget. As the expected FY 18 outturn is just below the approved budget, carry-forward resources equivalent to 4 percent of the net budget from earlier years would still be available. Of these, roughly one half ($19 million) has been allocated upfront in the FY 19 budget process.

The impact of savings and demands on the Fund’s overall output structure is modest. Fund-financed structural resources are projected to shift slightly from global oversight towards multilateral surveillance as a net result of reallocations from completed to new policy work and reviews, in line with the Board Work Program. Fund-financed country work—bilateral surveillance, lending and capacity development—falls somewhat. Externally financed capacity development (CD) is expected to grow further. Support and governance areas continue to experience structural pressures.

The same level of real resources is assumed over the medium-term. However, with medium-term risks to the economic outlook still on the downside, were upside spending pressures to emerge, the flat real budget stance would require a continued ability to find offsetting savings to meet emerging and unforeseen priorities.
The capital budget envelope for FY 19 is broadly unchanged from the assumptions in the FY 18–20 Medium-Term Budget. The amounts for the outer years are indicative.

May 10, 2018

Public Investment Management Assessment - Review and Update

Description:

Public Investment Management Assessments (PIMAs) are the IMF‘s key tool for assessing infrastructure governance over the full investment cycle and supporting economic institution building in this area. The PIMA framework was first introduced in the 2015 Board Paper on “Making Public Investment More Efficient,” as part of the IMF’s Infrastructure Policy Support Initiative (IPSI). A key motivation for its development has been that strong infrastructure governance is critical for public investment to spur economic growth. PIMAs offer rigorous assessment of infrastructure governance, that is, the key public investment management (PIM) institutions and processes of a country.

On the basis of the PIMAs conducted to date, this paper summarizes the lessons learned and updates the assessment framework itself. PIMAs summarize the strengths and weaknesses of country public investment processes, and set out a prioritized and sequenced reform action plan. The PIMA framework has been well-received by member countries, with over 30 PIMAs conducted to date (mainly in emerging markets (EMs) and low income developing countries (LIDCs), and a pipeline of new requests in place; eight PIMAs have been or are about to be published. The PIMAs conducted show that there is much room for strengthening PIM, with weaknesses spread across the investment cycle. The results and recommendations of several PIMAs have been used in IMF lending, surveillance, and capacity development (CD) work, and have improved support and coordination among CD providers.

While leaving the structure of the 2015 framework unchanged, the revised PIMA framework highlights some critical governance aspects more prominently. In particular, it brings out more fully some key aspects of maintenance, procurement, independent review of projects, and the enabling environment (e.g., adequacy of the legal framework, information systems, and staff capacity). Yet, the revised PIMA retains the key features of the 2015 framework, including the three-phase structure (planning, allocation, and implementation) with five institutions assigned to each phase, three dimensions under each institution, and three possible scores under each dimension (i.e., not/partially/fully met). The revision has benefitted from extensive stakeholder feedback, including from IMF teams, World Bank staff, and country authorities. 

April 30, 2018

The IMF’s Annual Macroprudential Policy Survey— Objectives, Design, and Country Responses

Description: As use of macroprudential policy tools is growing, the IMF has initiated an annual survey on macroprudential policy with its membership. The resulting new database provides information on policy measures taken by IMF member countries as well as on the institutional arrangements in place to support macroprudential policy. This paper provides detail on the design of the survey and a description of the results from the first edition of the survey, based on responses received from 141 jurisdictions. It reviews institutional arrangements in place across the membership, provides an initial description of the types of measures reported across regions, and describes recent changes in macroprudential policy settings reported by member countries.

April 24, 2018

Update on the Financing of the Fund's Concessional Assistance and Debt Relief to Low-Income Countries

Description: The Fund is adapting its framework for providing support to low-income countries (LICs) amid rising vulnerabilities. Despite a global economic upswing, many LICs continue to face difficult fiscal and external positions, aggravated by increasing debt levels and natural disasters in many countries. In this context, the Executive Board approved in May 2017 higher annual access limits under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) for balance of payment needs arising from large natural disasters and in May 2017 decided to keep the list of Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT)-eligible countries unchanged notwithstanding rising per capita income levels. A comprehensive review of PRGT facilities is underway to consider potential adaptations of program modalities and access policies.

PRGT demand in 2017 was above the historical average for the third year in a row. New commitments totaled SDR 1.7 billion, the highest level since the global financial crisis. Demand is expected to moderate somewhat in 2018. Longer-term demand estimates are broadly unchanged from last year’s update, and remain generally consistent with the self-sustaining PRGT financing framework adopted in 2012.

Loan resources have been successfully replenished, while subsidy contributions remain somewhat below pledged amounts. The 2015 fundraising round mobilized slightly more than the initial target of SDR 11 billion in new loan resources from 15 PRGT lenders, which should provide adequate loan resources into the next decade. By contrast, progress has been limited in collecting the remaining pledged resources for subsidizing the interest on PRGT credit.

The PRGT self-sustained capacity remains intact. The PRGT’s self-sustained long term average annual lending capacity is estimated at SDR 1.31 billion, broadly unchanged from last year’ estimate. While capacity estimates are sensitive to a variety of factors, they remain relatively close to the target of SDR 1¼ billion under a number of shocks.

The Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCR Trust) remains underfunded. Funding is below the original targeted amount of new bilateral contributions totaling US$150 million, and the gap is more sizeable when considering the increase of members’ quotas under the 14th General Review of Quotas. To meet funding needs for future qualifying catastrophe relief, it is important that countries with outstanding pledges fulfill their commitments and for additional countries to come forward.

Additional financing would be required to provide debt relief to members with protracted arrears. Debt relief under the Heavily Indebted Poor Counties (HIPC) Initiative is winding up, with only two potentially eligible countries left with outstanding Fund credit. These are the protracted arrears cases of Somalia and Sudan. Additional resources would be required to finance the Fund’s participation in debt relief when these countries are ready to undertake the HIPC Initiative process.

April 22, 2018

Review of 1997 Guidance Note on Governance - A Proposed Framework for Enhanced Fund Engagement

Description: This paper proposes the adoption of a framework that would supplement the 1997 Fund’s Guidance Note on the Role of the Fund in Governance Issues, adopted by the Executive Board (the “1997 Governance Policy”). While the 1997 Governance Policy remains an appropriate basis for the Fund’s work in this area, further guidance from the Executive Board is needed to ensure that the objectives of that policy are achieved. Experience over the past 20 years has underscored the critical impact that governance issues can have on the Fund’s work. In particular, there is evidence that corruption can have a pernicious effect on a country’s ability to achieve sustainable, inclusive economic growth. As requested by the Executive Board, the proposed Framework for Enhanced Engagement by the Fund (“Framework for Enhanced Fund Engagement”) is designed to promote more systematic, effective, and candid engagement with member countries regarding those governance vulnerabilities, including corruption, that are judged to be macroeconomically critical. Perhaps most importantly, the application of the Framework for Enhanced Fund Engagement to all members on a systematic basis will enhance evenhandedness. Finally, the Framework is designed to strengthen the global fight against corruption by promoting governmental measures that prevent private actors from offering bribes or providing services that enable the proceeds of corrupt acts to be concealed, particularly in the transnational context.

April 19, 2018

Progress Report to the IMFC on the Activities of the Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF

Description: Since the October 2017 report to the IMFC, the IEO has completed an evaluation of the IMF’s work in fragile states and an update of its 2007 evaluation of IMF exchange rate policy advice. The office continued work on two evaluations, on IMF financial surveillance and on IMF advice on unconventional monetary policies, as well as an update of the 2008 evaluation of structural conditionality. It also launched an update of IEO’s 2008 Evaluation of IMF Governance. The IEO welcomes recent steps taken by the IMF to follow through on Board-endorsed recommendations of its 2016–17 evaluations.

April 19, 2018

Provisional Agenda for the Thirty-Seventh Meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee

April 19, 2018

A Window of Opportunity Remains Open: The Managing Director’s Global Policy Agenda Update

Description: The momentum behind the cyclical global expansion remains strong. But escalating trade conflicts and financial market volatility highlight downside risks beyond the next several quarters.

To sustain the upswing, policy makers need to enhance financial sector resilience, start rebuilding policy space, and implement structural reforms–including on corruption and governance.

Countries should work to promote an open and rulesbasedmultilateral trade system that works for all, and to durably reduce excess global imbalances. A cooperative approach to regulation will reap the benefits of financial technology, while addressing risks to stability and integrity.

The Fund is embarking on major policy reviews, including on surveillance, the Financial Sector Assessment Program, program conditionality, concessional lending tools, debt
sustainability analysis, and capacity development. We have also launched a comprehensive work program on the opportunities and challenges from digitalization.

April 17, 2018

2018 Interim Surveillance Review

Description:

Fund surveillance has become better adapted to the global conjuncture, and more integrated and risk-based. The recommendations of the 2014 Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR) focused on helping members navigate the post crisis challenges. Bilateral and multilateral surveillance discussions are underpinned by a shared and deeper understanding of global interconnectedness and linkages across sectors. There has also been progress in core areas such as risk work, fiscal and external sector analysis, and in integration of macrofinancial analysis and of macrostructural policy work that aims to reinvigorate productivity and growth, and promote inclusiveness. The ongoing efforts to align surveillance inputs with risks is also enhancing the Fund’s ability to support members more effectively.

Continuing efforts along several dimensions will be needed to further advance surveillance ahead of the 2019 Comprehensive Surveillance Review (CSR). These include planned refinements to external sector assessments, sustaining progress on macrofinancial surveillance, addressing data gaps, and incorporating lessons from pilot efforts including on macrofinancial, macrostructural and emerging issues. Efforts to meet surveillance challenges in low income countries also will continue. Outward spillover work, particularly from the largest economies, should receive greater prominence in Article IV reports. Further work is also needed to make policy advice more persuasive by better leveraging cross-country policy experiences and integrating technical assistance.

Lessons from implementing the TSR recommendations should help ensure further progress. A major investment has been made to deepen the analysis that supports surveillance. With a dramatic increase in the range of analytical approaches and tools available, selectivity and tailoring are ever more crucial. The Fund’s internal processes have proven flexible enough to deliver on key areas, but will require continual adaptation to keep pace with evolving challenges. Strategies for human resources, capacity development, knowledge management, and data and statistics should further reinforce surveillance priorities.

Looking ahead, the 2019 CSR will further anchor the Fund’s surveillance in a world of rapid technological change. The increased pace of technological progress could have far-reaching implications for the global economy, finance, and policy making, possibly fundamentally altering the surveillance landscape. Coupled with rising inequality and possible adoption of inward-looking policies, the impact on the membership could be profound. Engagement with members, stakeholders, and experts will be central in determining how the 2019 CSR will address these challenges.

April 11, 2018

Considerations on the Role of the SDR

Description: This paper explores whether a broader role for the SDR could contribute to the smooth functioning and stability of the international monetary system (IMS). Recent staff assessments highlighted that the IMS has displayed considerable resilience. But episodes of stress point also to some weaknesses, including in external adjustment mechanisms; limitations of official liquidity provisions through the Global Financial Safety Net (GFSN); and large-scale reserve accumulation—with systemic side effects. Those weaknesses, together with the expansion of the SDR basket, have renewed interest in the SDR and motivated a discussion of whether there is an economic rationale for a broader SDR role. The paper looks into how those weaknesses can be mitigated by three concepts of the SDR: the official SDR, the reserve asset administered by the IMF (O-SDR); SDR-denominated financial instruments, or “market SDRs” (M-SDR); and the SDR as a unit of account (U-SDR). However, the paper does not propose specific reform options.