IMF Policy Discussion Papers
1997
November 1, 1997
Making a Currency Board Operational
Description: Making a Currency Board Operational
November 1, 1997
The Macroeconomic Impact of Privatization
Description: The Macroeconomic Impact of Privatization
June 1, 1997
Dedicated Road Funds: A Preliminary View on a World Bank Initiative
Description: In the past, Road Funds have been criticized as inconsistent with effective expenditure control, as distorting the allocation of public sector resources, and as incompatible with efficient management of government resources. This paper considers whether there is a case for a more benevolent view of the new “second generation” dedicated Road Funds, which have emerged in recent years. The paper concludes that, where a Road Fund pursues a genuine purchasing agency approach, then in principle it can be an efficient means of delivering road maintenance and, perhaps road capital expenditures. But a formidable list of institutional and financial requirements would have to be satisfied for a dedicated Road Fund to be appropriate. These conditions are more likely to be satisfied in developed economies, with efficient budgetary systems already in place. In many developing countries, the better solution may be to reform overall budget institutions, procedures and practices. But if the institutional and financial requirements for an efficient fund can be met, a Road Fund may be appropriate. The question is just how often the right conditions will arise.
June 1, 1997
Monetary Frameworks: Is There a Preferred Option for the European Central Bank?
Description: This paper discusses how the size of the monetary union in Europe can influence the choice of the monetary framework. The main conjecture is that the European Central Bank ought to target inflation if monetary union is confined to a “core” group of countries. However, the decision on whether to target inflation or monetary aggregates is not an unambiguous one if monetary union is EU-wide; the choice of the framework will depend on the type of shocks that are likely to prevail. The arguments motivating these conjectures essentially concern the trade-offs between the viability and credibility of different monetary frameworks.
May 1, 1997
Exchange Rate Policy and Monetary Strategy Options in the Philippines: The Search for Stability and Sustainability
Description: This paper evaluates the Philippines’ experience with different exchange regimes since 1970. It argues that the shift to a flexible regime was crucial to restoring external viability and generating an export-led economic take-off, but that mixed performance in meeting money targets and asymmetric policy reactions to exchange rate pressures have resulted in an uneven inflation performance. Since adoption of a firm nominal anchor for monetary policy would contribute to a more effective control of inflation and thereby to better prospects for sustained growth, the merits of three monetary strategy options are reviewed: stricter adherence to a money supply rule, adoption of an exchange rate peg, and a switch to direct inflation targeting.
May 1, 1997
Fiscal Accounting of Bank Restructuring
Description: Current guidelines and practice for classifying government bank assistance operations inadequately capture in the fiscal balance some of the most common, and important, operations. The shortcomings result from the focus on the general government, the exclusion of non-cash operations, and divergences between the timing of cash outlays and the economic impact of assistance operations. Complementing the standard measures of the fiscal balance with an “augmented” balance would provide a definition that is transparent, comprehensive, and reasonably comparable across countries. The augmented balance would explicitly incorporate the major quantifiable fiscal costs of bank assistance operations that are not already included in current definitions of the overall balance.
March 1, 1997
Are Europe's Social Security Finances Compatible with EMU?
Description: Pursuant to the Treaty of Maastricht, members of the European Union (EU) intend to participate in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), in part through convergence toward specified limits on the overall deficit and gross debt of general government. The paper argues that in several EU members, the financial imbalance of social security institutions may constitute an impediment to meeting these requirements. Given a constraint on further payroll tax increases, most countries will need to undertake major reform of public pension and health-care systems, to ensure adherence to the EMU fiscal criteria in the medium to long run.
February 1, 1997
Conditionality as an Instrument of Borrower Credibility
Description: Fund member countries that adopt market-friendly policies often encounter a credibility problem—market-friendly policies are not effective in stimulating private investment as long as there remains a significant risk of policy reversal. The root of this risk lies in the discretionary policy-making authority of governments. Committing to a program with the Fund, and endorsing its conditionality, is one instrument available to governments to overcome this difficulty. The paper develops this interpretation of conditionality and indicates some of its operational implications for Fund programs.
February 1, 1997
Designing Disinflation Programs in Transition Economies: The Implications of Relative Price Adjustment
Description: Designing Disinflation Programs in Transition Economies: The Implications of Relative Price Adjustment
1996
November 1, 1996
The Definition of Reserve Money - Does It Matter for Financial Programs?
Description: The Definition of Reserve Money - Does It Matter for Financial Programs?