Country Reports
2020
May 22, 2020
Georgia: Technical Assistance Report-Producer Price Indexes Mission
Description: This Technical Assistance Report paper on Georgia highlights various aspects of producer price indexes (PPI) mission. The purpose of the mission was to assist the National Statistics Office of Georgia (Geostat) with expanding the coverage of the PPI to additional services activities. Expanded PPI coverage will facilitate more accurate measurement of real output generated from services activities in Georgia. Since services activities comprised 58.4 percent of 2018 gross domestic product on a value-added basis, improved measurement in this area will significantly enhance the accuracy of total measures of the size, growth, and productivity of the Georgian economy. Improved PPIs will also provide policymakers with a clearer view of price development at the producer level, which may signal future changes in the cost of living for Georgian consumers. Geostat analysis indicated that prices for all carriers have historically changed at similar rates. This makes the consumer price index for air transportation an adequate estimator for producer prices, which should include domestic airlines only. However, PPI prices should ideally include sales to all buyer types, not just resident consumers. This makes unit value prices an attractive option. These can be calculated as total fare revenue generated from all passengers that flew in a specified class of service on all flights for a specified route, divided by this same number of passengers.
May 22, 2020
Republic of Armenia: Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, Requests for Augmentation of Access, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Monetary Policy Consultation Clause-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Statement by the Alternate Executive Director
Description: This paper discusses Republic of Armenia’s Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, Requests for Augmentation of Access, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Monetary Policy Consultation Clause. Following a strong performance in 2019, the Armenian economy was hit hard by the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. The government has proactively responded to the crisis, adopting widespread containment measures while supporting vulnerable individuals and firms in the most affected sectors. The fiscal deficit is projected to widen considerably in 2020, reflecting the impact of the cycle on revenues and higher current spending for healthcare and economic support to vulnerable households and firms. The authorities are committed to pursuing their medium-term goal of debt sustainability once the crisis abates, and public debt is expected to decline over the medium-term in line with Armenia’s fiscal rule, while maintaining space for investment and social spending. The augmentation of access under the Stand-by Arrangement will provide much needed support, allowing the authorities to mitigate the pandemic and support affected households and businesses.
May 20, 2020
Benin: Sixth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, and Request for Augmentation of Access-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Benin
Description: This paper presents Benin’s Sixth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, and Request for Augmentation of Access. Program implementation continues to be strong, with all end-December 2019 quantitative performance criteria and the structural benchmarks under review being met. Economic activity is expected to decelerate sharply in 2020 due to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. The authorities have prepared a response plan of 1.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) to contain health risks and support the economy. As a result of the projected revenue shortfall and the new measures, the 2020 fiscal deficit is revised upward to 3.5 percent of GDP. The authorities’ policies under the ECF-supported program are substantially adapted to cope with the health and economic emergency. The IMF staff supports the completion of the sixth review under the ECF-supported arrangement. Staff also supports the request for an augmentation of access equivalent to 61.4 percent of quota to address larger financing needs.
May 19, 2020
Republic of Uzbekistan: Requests for Disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility and Purchase under the Rapid Financing Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Uzbekistan
Description: This paper examines Republic of Uzbekistan’s Requests for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic is significantly impacting Uzbekistan’s economy, reducing growth, and creating additional external and fiscal financing needs. IMF financial assistance under the RCF and the RFI, along with support from other multilateral institutions, will help cover Uzbekistan’s fiscal and balance of payments needs and mitigate the impact on its foreign exchange reserves. It will also provide resources to support increased crisis spending for healthcare, social protection, and public support for affected firms and households. Uzbekistan aims to continue implementing its structural reform agenda, to complete the transformation to a modern, open market economy, and to improve governance and public management. It has committed to safeguard the use and improve the efficiency of its public resources by increasing transparency and accountability.
May 19, 2020
Seychelles: Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Seychelles
Description: This paper refers to Seychelles’ Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). The near-term economic fallout of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic is expected to be severe. Restriction in travel will hinder tourism and weaken fiscal and external positions, creating large additional financing needs. The authorities reacted swiftly by taking immediate measures of containment, including border closures, strengthening health policy responses and supporting households and firms. The emergency IMF support under the RFI provides timely resources to the authorities to address the urgent balance of payments and budgetary needs. The assistance of other international financial institutions and development partners is crucial to close the remaining financing gaps, ease the adjustment burden, and preserve economic growth. The authorities are committed to transparency and good governance in the use of emergency financing by providing monthly reports of pandemic-related expenditure to the National Assembly and undertaking an independent audit of such spending and procurement and publishing the results.
May 18, 2020
St. Lucia Technical Assistance Report—Rebasing GDP Mission
Description: A technical assistance mission was undertaken by the Real Sector Statistics Advisor in the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre to Saint Lucia to provide advice to the Central Statistics Office (CSO) on compiling rebased gross domestic product estimates. The CSO is responding to the needs of the Ministry of Finance for more robust and timely national accounts statistics. All the Gross domestic product by economic activity (GDP-P) compilation workbooks have now been redeveloped and revised current and constant 2018 price quarterly and annual estimates have been compiled up to Q3 2019. The incorporation of revised data on tourist expenditure for 2000 onward have also resulted in revisions to the GDP-P current rice estimates and real growth rates. The revised annual and quarterly GDP-P estimates were assessed, and several methodological improvements were implemented. Improvements were made to the constant price estimates by reviewing and replacing weaker volume indicators. Training on the methodological changes and compiling the rebased estimates has been provided. The training on methodological improvements included the use of the more representative employment indicators and various price indices discussed above; back-casting and linking techniques for the current price estimates and linking the constant 2006 price series with the constant 2018 price series.
May 18, 2020
Jamaica: Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Jamaica
Description: This paper discusses Jamaica’s Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). The Jamaican authorities have proactively responded to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Nevertheless, despite the authorities’ best efforts, the pandemic is severely impacting the Jamaican economy, as a sudden stop in tourism and falling remittances are generating a sizable balance-of-payments need. Moreover, the economic outlook remains subject to an unusually high degree of uncertainty. The disbursement under the RFI will strengthen reserves and help catalyze additional support from other international financial institutions and development partners. The authorities’ policy response to the COVID-19 crisis is appropriate, including the timely adoption of targeted measures to support jobs and provide resources to vulnerable segments of the population. Once the crisis abates, building on their demonstrated commitment to reform and stability-oriented measures, the authorities should continue the implementation of their ambitious reform agenda to support the economic recovery and ensure strong and sustainable economic growth.
May 15, 2020
Montenegro: Technical Assistance Report-Report on External Sector Statistics Mission
Description: The IMF’s Statistics Department (STA) conducted a technical assistance mission to support the Central Bank of Montenegro (CBM) for the compilation of external sector statistics in Montenegro during January 20–31, 2020. The mission recommended that the CBM compile preliminary quarterly International Investment Position data and submit them to STA for review by the end of December 2020. The mission recommended that the CBM start recording the Economic Citizenship Program (ECP) according to the characteristics of the payments from the applicants by the end of March 2020. The ECP was just introduced in 2019 and details of the program were not made available during the mission. The mission advised that the payments from applicants for the ECP should be recorded in services, current or capital transfers, or direct or portfolio investment, according to the characteristics of the payments. The CBM plans to start recording data based on the information obtained from the international transaction reporting system (ITRS). The mission advised that the CBM approach the agency in charge of the ECP to collect precise information on the characteristics of the payments and cross-check the data from the ITRS.
May 15, 2020
Republic of Belarus: Technical Assistance Report-Monetary Policy Modeling
Description: This Technical Assistance (TA) report on the Republic of Belarus focuses on various aspects of monetary policy modeling. This TA mission was the fifth from series of quarterly IMF TA missions focused on the forecasting and analysis system capacity building. It was mainly aimed to simulate initial conditions and compile a quarterly projection model (QPM)-based forecast scenario as a part of a practical forecasting round at the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) in March. Moreover, the mission worked with the modeling team to deepen its understanding of the QPM’s role in policy decision making and in internal communication. Adopting Inflation Targeting and increasing monetary policy effectiveness would require broad-based reforms as compressively outlined in the developed Road Map for Transitioning to Inflation Targeting. This medium-term TA project aims to primarily help the NBRB with medium-term inflation forecasting and policy analysis and related tools to effectively support policy making. The project composed of series of TA and training missions particularly focused on the preparation of forecasts and policy analyses, the medium-term forecasting and policy analysis model, and presentations of the forecasts and policy analysis.
May 15, 2020
Republic of Belarus: Technical Assistance Report-Monetary Policy Modeling
Description: The National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) visited Minsk during for the seventh of the planned eight short-term technical assistance (TA) missions to help the NBRB enhance its modeling, forecasting and policy analysis capacity, and the forecasting and policy analysis system, sponsored by the Swedish International Development Agency. The NBRB is reforming its monetary policy framework in line with recommendations of past IMF TA missions and its Road Map for Transitioning to Inflation Targeting with the aim of eventually adopting inflation targeting (IT). Transitioning to IT would require, among other strengthening the monetary policy forecasting and analysis system (FPAS) and better integrating the core quarterly projection model (QPM) into the decision-making process. The mission was mainly aimed at helping with reviewing the initial conditions and compiling a QPM-based forecast as a part of the NBRB’s September forecasting round. The mission, in addition, worked on strengthening processes within the FPAS.