Country Reports
2021
February 8, 2021
Russian Federation: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report
Description: Russia entered the crisis with low potential growth but strong macroeconomic policy frameworks and significant buffers. Policy space allowed the authorities to mount a sizeable public health and countercyclical response to the crisis, which has helped limit the economic downturn. Nevertheless, the crisis is likely to leave some long-term scars.
February 8, 2021
Republic of Poland: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Poland
Description: After a long period of uninterrupted growth, Poland is experiencing a pandemic-induced recession, though strong policy actions have limited the damage. The economy rebounded strongly in the third quarter of 2020, but the second wave of the virus has delayed the recovery. A strong and effective policy response has supported economic activity and prevented destructive losses of employment and bankruptcies. Following the recession in 2020, Poland is well positioned for recovery. The pandemic will remain a constraint until the assumed administration of vaccines over the course of 2021. Resiliency in the corporate sector and labor markets, aided by strong policy support, should foster a strong rebound. Sizeable new EU grants would also facilitate an increase in investment and boost growth. The course of the pandemic and ultimate success of vaccines remains a fundamental risk.
February 8, 2021
Nigeria: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Alternate Executive Director for Nigeria
Description: The Nigerian economy is at a critical juncture. A weak pre-crisis economy characterized by falling per capita income, double-digit inflation, significant governance vulnerabilities and limited buffers, is grappling with multiple shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic. Real output is projected to contract by 3.2 percent in 2020, with a weak recovery likely to keep per capita income stagnant and no higher than the 2010 level in the medium term. Policy adjustment and reforms are urgently needed to navigate this crisis and change the long-running lackluster course.
February 5, 2021
Iraq: Technical Assistance Report-Guarantees and Extra Budgetary Funds Management
Description: Iraq is substantially exposed to fiscal risks related to guarantees issued by the State, with a stock of guarantees related to foreign currency service payments and debt of USD 21.7 billion at end-June 2017 and a stock of domestic guarantees that remains to be fully assessed. In 2017, the Council of Ministers approved a set of procedures to tighten controls on the approval of State guarantees. Nevertheless, misreporting cases highlight the need to further strengthen capacities and institutional arrangements to effectively identify and monitor the fiscal implications of guarantees, including in the context of EBFs’ operations.
February 3, 2021
Panama: Technical Assistance Report-Monetary and Financial Statistics
Description: At the request of the Superintendency of Banks of Panama (SBP), and with the support of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) Western Hemisphere Department (WHD), a monetary and financial statistics (MFS) remote technical assistance (TA) mission from the IMF’s Statistics Department (STA) took place during June 22-July 10, 2020. The main objective of the mission was to assist the SBP in the compilation of new standard report forms for depository corporations (SRF 1SR and SRF 2SR) on the basis of internationally accepted standards, as set out in the IMF’s 2016 Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual and Compilation Guide (MFSMCG), following the introduction of a new chart of accounts by the SBP, and to agree on an improved timeline to report monetary and financial statistics to STA, on a monthly basis. The work of the mission was facilitated by the excellent collaboration of the staff of the Financial Studies Directorate (FSD) of the SBP. The officials met during the mission are listed in Appendix I.
February 3, 2021
Panama: Request for an Arrangement Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Panama
Description: While Panama has been the most dynamic economy in Latin America over the last three decades (growing 6 percent on average), its strength is being tested by the COVID-19 global pandemic. Panama is a service-based economy that is highly integrated in the world economy and exposed to extreme shocks during the pandemic.
February 1, 2021
Bulgaria: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bulgaria
Description: The economy contracted sharply amid two waves of COVID-19 infections, with the government providing sizable policy support. The outlook is very uncertain and the main challenge facing policymakers is to keep adjusting to changing circumstances. Over the medium term, structural reforms are needed that support inclusive income convergence toward advanced EU partners against demographic headwinds.
February 1, 2021
Tonga: 2020 Article IV Consultation and Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Tonga
Description: Tonga’s recovery following the devastation of the 2018 Cyclone Gita has been derailed by a double blow from the pandemic and Cyclone Harold. FY2020 GDP growth is estimated to fall to -2½ percent due to domestic containment measures, a sudden stop in tourism, and investment delays. The full brunt of the pandemic will be felt in FY2021 (beginning July) during peak tourism season, when a deeper contraction is expected. A worse outcome was avoided by early actions to close external borders—which has kept Tonga COVID-19-free—and prompt economic support. Beyond FY2021, the recovery is expected to resume in line with the global recovery, but the magnitude and trajectory is uncertain.
February 1, 2021
Guinea-Bissau: Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea-Bissau
Description: Guinea Bissau is a fragile state with a long history of political instability. Poverty is high with about 67 percent of the population living below the poverty line of US$1.90 per day. The economy relies heavily on the production and exports of unprocessed cashew nuts, making most households highly vulnerable to cashew nut price shocks and climate change risks.