Country Reports
2021
January 8, 2021
Liberia: Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy
Description: The Pro-Poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development 2018 to 2023 (PAPD) is the second in the series of 5-year National Development Plans (NDP) anticipated under the Liberia Vision 2030 framework. It follows the Agenda for Transformation 2012-2017 (AfT). It is informed as well by lessons learned from the implementation of the Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy 2007 (iPRS) and the Poverty Reduction Strategy (2008-2011). The fundamentals underpinning the PAPD are: i) Liberia is rich in human and natural resources; but ii) is deprived of development largely because its human capital lacks the knowledge to transform the natural resources into wealth—whether through farming, mining, fishing, or other productive ventures that require technology or financial investments. Consequently, Liberia is relatively rich in natural capital but relatively poor in relations to its peers in both human and produced capital. Moreover, because of a legacy of entrenched inequality in access to development opportunities, widespread infrastructure deficits and pervasive poverty have become the binding constraints to future growth and prosperity.
January 8, 2021
Republic of Serbia: Fifth Review under the Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: Recent economic developments. Economic activity recovered following a severe contraction in 2Q2020 caused by the pandemic. Real output in 2020 has been revised up and is now projected to contract by only 1.5 percent, on the back of positive highfrequency indicators. Inflation remains low. The banking system remains liquid. After the two waves in March and July, the number of new infections has accelerated again since mid-October, reaching record-high levels and a larger-than-expected deterioration presents a clear downside risk.
January 8, 2021
Liberia: First and Second Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Liberia
Description: Restoring macroeconomic stability, providing a foundation for sustainable inclusive growth, and addressing weaknesses in governance remain the main objectives of this program. While allowing for a slight fiscal loosening to meet humanitarian needs during the COVID-19 pandemic, tight monetary policy, much improved public financial management, domestic revenue mobilization, and zero central bank financing have supported the administration’s efforts to achieve price and exchange rate stability. This has helped to preserve the purchasing power of the poor who were the most affected by the high inflation environment at the program’s inception. The authorities consider bringing the ECF-supported program back on track of utmost importance and are committed to their development plan, the Pro-Poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development (PAPD).
January 7, 2021
Arab Republic of Egypt: First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Monetary Policy Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Arab Republic of Egypt
Description: The growth impact of the COVID-19 crisis has so far been less severe than expected, as strong consumption helped offset weak tourism and investment. Measures taken to address the health and social needs and support the sectors most directly affected by the crisis appear to have helped mitigate the impact of the shock. External market conditions have improved with a strong return of portfolio inflows since the approval of the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA).
January 7, 2021
Central African Republic: Technical Assistance Report-Governance Diagnostic Report
Description: The gradual return to peace in the Central African Republic (CAR) promises stronger and more equitable growth. Nonetheless, the country faces serious constraints with a security situation that remains vulnerable and an economy in the throes of reconstruction, including in terms of the government’s administrative capacities. These constraints are reflected in problems of governance and greater vulnerability to corruption, and they find a favorable breeding ground in the country’s weak capacities and result in resource allocations and uses that are sometimes inadequate. The authorities are aware of these weaknesses, and they have emphasized a national strategy to fight corruption, and more generally, to improve governance as a factor of development.
January 5, 2021
Mali: Request for Second Tranche of Debt Service Relief Under the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: The COVID-19 pandemic and the August 2020 coup d’état have disrupted more than half a decade of strong economic performance, during which growth averaged 5 percent.1 Growth is projected to decline from 5 percent to -2 percent in 2020 both on account of the pandemic (reflecting a slowdown in external demand, travel, and FDI, as well as the impact of uncertainty and reduced mobility on domestic demand) and of post-coup disruptions in trade, transport, economic and financial flows following the sanctions imposed by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Inflation accelerated slightly in recent months but is expected to remain below 2 percent, while the current account deficit is projected to narrow due to higher gold prices (main export) and lower oil prices (main import). Risks around the outlook are exceptionally high in light of the uncertainty surrounding the political transition, the impact of the sanctions on trade and overall activity, and continued deterioration in the security situation. Weak social safety nets amid high informality, food insecurity and a fragile healthcare system exacerbate challenges.
January 5, 2021
Morocco: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Morocco
Description: As in many other countries in the world, the pandemic has exerted a heavy toll on Morocco’s population. Its economy has also been hit by a severe drought that affected agriculture output. The authorities’ prompt response has helped contain the social and economic damage from the shocks but could not avoid a severe contraction of GDP. The loss of tax revenues deteriorated the fiscal position, while the fall in tourism receipts widened the current account deficit. However, greater access to external borrowing, including the full drawing of the IMF Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) arrangement, has helped maintain international reserves at adequate levels so far in 2020. A gradual economic recovery is expected to begin in 2021, assuming the impact of the drought and the health crisis wane next year. The recent rise in COVID-19 cases, both in Morocco and its main trading partners, suggests that this outlook remains subject to significant downside risks.
January 5, 2021
Djibouti: Technical Assistance Report-External Sector Statistics
Description: An external sector statistics (ESS) mission visited Djibouti from January 26–30, 2020. This was the fourth mission under the JSA/AFR project to improve ESS in 17 Francophone African countries. The mission found that significant data on direct investment (DI) have not been incorporated in either the balance of payments or international investment position (IIP) statistics since 2017.
January 4, 2021
Rwanda: Third Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director and Staff Representative for Rwanda
Description: The COVID-19 pandemic is having an adverse impact on Rwanda’s economy, despite a sizeable policy response. Output in 2020 is projected to contract by 0.2 percent, compared to an 8 percent increase expected pre-pandemic. The government’s early actions helped contain the spread of the virus and mitigate its economic impact, supported by financing from Rwanda’s development partners, including from the IMF under the RCF. With the number of infections contained, the authorities are gradually easing up containment measures.
2020
December 23, 2020
Ecuador: First Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Quantitative Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ecuador
Description: On September 30, 2020, the IMF Executive Board approved a 27-month arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) with exceptional access (SDR 4,615 million, 661 percent of quota, about $6.5 billion) to help Ecuador restore macroeconomic stability and pursue the unfinished structural agenda from the previous program. High frequency indicators point to improvements in economic activity after bottoming out in Q2, while oil prices have been declining relative to earlier assumptions, leaving the macroeconomic outlook broadly unchanged over the medium term.