Country Reports
2021
September 3, 2021
Republic of Tajikistan: 2013 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: Tajikistan successfully completed a 3-year ECF-supported program in May 2012 and needs to continue with ambitious reforms. While growth is robust, it is non-inclusive, leading to large-scale outmigration that makes Tajikistan the most remittance-dependent country in the world. The country remains the poorest of the eight in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) and stands next to last among the seven with rankings in the ease of doing business. Reliance on commodity imports, a narrow export base, and low buffers leave the economy vulnerable. Weak macroeconomic policy frameworks restrict the authorities’ ability to dampen shocks. State-directed lending and investment displace market-financed activity and create fiscal risks. Presidential elections are scheduled for November.
September 3, 2021
Republic of Tajikistan: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: Growth has been strong and poverty has fallen in the past decade, though Tajikistan faces rising vulnerabilities. Growth is now softening and the external position has weakened dramatically as remittances have fallen with the sharp slowdown in Russia and earnings from cotton and aluminum exports have dropped due to global market developments. The exchange rate is under pressure and international reserves are thin. The fiscal position has been near balance in recent years and debt has been kept low, while fiscal space is becoming limited by rising debt service and contingent liabilities.
September 3, 2021
Republic of Tajikistan: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: Reported economic activity has been strong in 2018-19 and inflation has picked up. The monetary framework is being strengthened. The external position has deteriorated. The fiscal deficit has widened as revenues have declined. Reforms to place the loss-making energy sector on a sound financial footing are underway. The authorities’ development strategy relies on large infrastructure projects— Roghun dam and other large SOE-implemented projects — that need sizable external financing. The financial sector is recovering from the 2015-16 crisis, with a decline in nonperforming loans and improved profitability. The authorities are making efforts to strengthen bank supervision and regulation. However, two formerly-systemic banks remain insolvent and further reforms are needed to restore public confidence in banks.
September 3, 2021
Republic of Tajikistan: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: Tajikistan is the poorest of the eight Central Asian and Caucasus countries. Economic growth has been high and funded by inward remittances, but poverty remains significant. Macroeconomic policies were generally prudent before the external shocks (lower oil and commodity prices and weaker growth in trading partners) in 2015-16, but slow progress in structural reforms constrained diversification and employment generation. External shocks (through lower remittances and currency depreciation) and an inadequate policy response weakened the external position, exposed major weaknesses in the banking system, and contributed to a rise in public debt. Program discussions held in 2016 were not concluded. While the authorities launched a bank recapitalization plan in December 2016 to maintain depositor confidence and financial stability, additional banking sector reforms are needed.
September 2, 2021
Republic of Latvia: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Latvia
Description: The pandemic has caused an unprecedented disruption to economic and social activity, which has been met with swift, strong, and well-coordinated policy responses. These support measures have helped preserve jobs and provide liquidity to companies and income support to vulnerable groups, thereby averting a deeper recession. After contracting by 3.6 percent in 2020, real GDP is projected to grow by 3.6 percent in 2021 and 5.2 percent in 2022, as stimulus and the EU-financed investment works through and vaccinations help control the spread of the virus. However, uncertainty around the outlook is unusually large, given the evolution of the epidemiological situation and the slow start of the vaccination program.
September 1, 2021
Republic of Lithuania: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Lithuania
Description: With a demonstrated resilience to the crisis and the recovery gaining strength, macroeconomic policies should aim at preserving stability and complementing structural reforms that address long-standing challenges. A medium-term plan to rebuild buffers, support potential growth, and target pockets of vulnerability would help address pre-existing disparities and poverty. Sustained productivity growth, supported by the implementation of politically difficult but needed structural reforms, is the only way to support high wage growth and convergence with Western Europe. Failure to do so could jeopardize Lithuania’s hard-earned competitiveness gains.
August 27, 2021
Romania: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: Among EU countries, Romania suffered a relatively shallow recession in the COVID-19 crisis, aided by macroeconomic easing. A strong recovery is projected in 2021. The new government is committed to balance continued pandemic-related support with the start of a medium-term fiscal consolidation trajectory that corrects pre-pandemic excesses, while implementing a range of structural reforms. These efforts, as well as the medium-term recovery, should be bolstered by large Next Generation EU grants.