Country Reports
2021
December 22, 2021
Republic of Azerbaijan: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: Azerbaijan faced unprecedented challenges in 2020. The combined COVID-19 and oil price shocks pushed the economy into recession. A sizeable relief package helped cushion the economic impact from this shock, and the economy has started to recover. Yet the medium-term outlook remains subdued. The long-term fiscal position is unsustainable as oil resources are expected to run out by mid-century. The authorities have laid out strategic goals of accelerated yet sustainable socio-economic development over the next decade and are developing policy plans to that end.
December 22, 2021
Mexico: Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes—Data Module
Description: This Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes—Data Module (Data ROSC) updates assessments conducted in 2010 and 2015. The updated assessments are based on the May 2012 version of the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) and cover the national accounts, government finance, and external sector statistics. The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) is responsible for the national accounts, the Secretariat of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) for the government finance statistics (except for data on state and local governments, which are the responsibility of INEGI), and the Bank of Mexico (BM) for the external sector statistics.
December 22, 2021
Argentina: Ex-Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2018 Stand-By Arrangement-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: On June 20, 2018, the Executive Board approved the largest stand-by arrangement in the Fund’s history, in support of Argentina’s 2018-21 economic program. After an augmentation in October 2018, access under the arrangement amounted to US$57 billion (1,227 percent of Argentina’s IMF quota). The program saw only four of the planned twelve reviews completed, and did not fulfil the objectives of restoring confidence in fiscal and external viability while fostering economic growth. The arrangement was canceled on July 24, 2020.
December 22, 2021
Kenya: 2021 Article IV Consultation; Second Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Under the Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, and requests for Modifications of Performance Criteria and Structural Conditionality-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: Kenya’s medium-term economic outlook remains positive, supported by the authorities’ continued firm commitment to their economic program amidst a complex environment. Economic recovery is well underway, but Kenya’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have suffered significant setbacks, and poverty has increased. The authorities see the program as providing essential support for sound fiscal management ahead of the 2022 elections, reinforcing their multi-year fiscal consolidation plan to reduce debt vulnerabilities and preserve priority social and development spending.
December 21, 2021
Republic of Serbia: First Review under the Policy Coordination Instrument -Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: An economic recovery is underway on the heels of the authorities’ large and timely policy response. By 1Q2021, GDP exceeded its pre-crisis level and growth in 2021 is expected to reach 6.5 percent, supporting a smaller-than-expected fiscal deficit. Headline inflation increased above the 4.5 percent upper limit of the target band in September and October. Regulated energy prices for consumers are not expected to change until next spring, but electricity prices for corporates are set to increase. A new pandemic wave that started in late-July persists though activity seems to have decoupled from infections. With a gradual normalization of demand and supply conditions, growth is projected to reach 4.5 percent in 2022. Inflation is expected to revert to the lower half of the inflation tolerance band in 2H2022 as the effects from this year’s drought wane and energy prices stabilize.
December 21, 2021
Republic of Armenia: 2021 Article IV Consultation, Fourth and Fifth Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement, and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion and Monetary Policy Consultation Clause-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Armenia
Description: Armenia has commenced a robust recovery from the deep 2020 recession, benefiting from strong policies and the lifting of the political uncertainty after the elections in June. A gradual but uneven improvement in the pandemic situation, pent-up demand, and the strengthening of public and private investment are expected to drive 2022 growth. Robust growth is expected over the medium term. Risks. Risks are relatively balanced, although uncertainty remains high. Strong reform implementation and accelerating vaccinations could improve the outlook, while risks of a protracted pandemic, renewed geopolitical tensions, a slowdown in major trading partners, and stress from global financial volatility and/or trade tensions could hamper the recovery.
December 20, 2021
Malawi: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Malawi
Description: Malawi, a fragile state with one of the highest incidences of poverty, food insecurity and frequent weather-related shocks, has been severely affected by the pandemic. There are signs of gradual recovery and daily COVID-19 positive cases remain relatively low: real GDP growth in 2021 is projected to pick up to 2.2 percent from 0.9 percent in 2020 helped by a good harvest. However, inflation is expected to increase to 9 percent in 2021 from 8.6 percent in 2020, driven by increases in prices of fuel, fertilizer and food, leaving real per capita growth in the negative region.
December 20, 2021
Georgia: Technical Assistance Report-Draft Public Corporation Reform Strategy
Description: State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are a key part of Georgia’s economy, accounting for a significant portion of GDP, employment and public investment. They deliver critical services in important economic sectors, including gas, electricity, water and transportation. Improving their performance is a critical step in the path to becoming a high income country. Since 2012, the authorities have been taking concrete steps to address challenges arising from the SOE sector. Substantial progress has been achieved in disclosing fiscal risks arising from SOEs in the Fiscal Risk Statement; increasing the monitoring capacity at the Ministry of Finance (MoF) by establishing a Fiscal Risk Management Unit (FRMU); rationalizing the number of SOEs; sectorizing them in line with international statistical standards; partially unwinding the role of the Partnership Fund; and restructuring some specific SOEs.