Country Reports
2022
February 11, 2022
Peru: Technical Assistance Report-Tax Regime for Small Taxpayers and Special Economic Zones
Description: The topics discussed in this report are tax regimes for small taxpayers (Chapter II) and the tax treatment of special economic zones (Chapter III). Although these aspects of the tax system have little direct effect on public finances, they affect many people and how those people make decisions or impact the positioning of certain regions relative to the rest of the country. Both are of social and political scope that is disproportionate to their magnitude of tax revenue collection, which is why their design must remain focused in its most strategic sense.
February 11, 2022
South Africa: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for South Africa
Description: South Africa’s subpar economic performance over the last decade has weakened its macroeconomic fundamentals and social indicators. In response to formidable COVID-19-related challenges, government expenditure surged, and, amid declining revenue, the budget deficit widened significantly. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and the Prudential Authority (PA) preserved adequate liquidity conditions and financial-sector stability. The cyclical recovery from the deep contraction has been faster than expected but its strength is unlikely to be sustained. Benign global market conditions have supported asset performance, although term premia are elevated due to fiscal risks. Bank soundness indicators remain solid, but a deepening bank-sovereign nexus raises some concerns.
February 11, 2022
South Africa: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Financial System Stability Assessment
Description: The economy recovered strongly in 2021, following an unprecedented real output contraction in 2020. However, the outlook remains precarious amidst projected future low growth, high unemployment and adverse debt dynamics, and the recovery pace is unlikely to be sustained. Ample buffers allowed the financial system to handle the COVID-19 shock relatively well, but domestic and external downside risks remain substantial—with potential implications for asset quality, profitability, and solvency.
February 9, 2022
Nigeria: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement, and Statement by the Executive Director for Nigeria
Description: The economy is recovering from a historic downturn thanks to policy support, rebounding oil prices and international financial assistance. Benefiting from the authorities’ pro-active approach, COVID-19 infection rates and fatalities have been contained. With higher oil prices and the country entering into the 2023 Presidential election cycle, there are risks of delays in much needed fiscal and exchange rate reforms. Macroeconomic and structural policies should build confidence and ensure a robust exit from the crisis.
February 9, 2022
Morocco: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: Thanks to a successful vaccination campaign, COVID19 cases have declined sharply in 2021, and the Moroccan economy is rebounding. Economic activity has recovered most of the ground lost with the severe recession of 2020 and is expected to grow at 6.3 percent in 2021. Among the factors propelling the rebound are the exceptional harvest after two years of drought, continued fiscal and monetary stimulus, and the persistent buoyancy of remittances. Going forward, Morocco’s growth is expected to remain at about 3 percent, assuming the acceleration of new cases in early 2022 proves transitory and the effects of the pandemic on activity gradually fade. Recent inflationary pressures remained manageable and are expected to wane in 2022, as cost pressures from global and domestic supply disruptions are reabsorbed. After its sharp contraction in 2020, the current account deficit is projected to widen in 2021 and over the medium term, but Morocco emerges from the pandemic with a much stronger international reserve position.
February 8, 2022
Union of the Comoros: First Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program and Request for Extension; and Staff Report
Description: Comoros is a small, fragile island state (population: 850,000) with persistently low and shock-prone growth and a high risk of external debt distress. Officially recorded COVID-related casualties have remained low (4,569 infections and 151 deaths so far). Growth projections remain at 1.6 percent in 2021 and 3.8 percent in 2022, supported in part by progress in vaccinations.
February 7, 2022
Euro Area Policies: 2021 Article IV Consultation with Member Countries on Common Euro Area Policies-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Member Countries
Description: Following a deep recession in 2020 and further contraction in 2021Q1, the euro area economy recovered rapidly in the second and third quarters thanks to high vaccination levels, increasing household and business adaptability to the virus, and continued forceful policy support. Looking ahead, while supply chain disruptions, elevated energy prices, and resurgences of Covid-19 cases—including those related to the Omicron variant—are likely to pose near-term headwinds to growth, the recovery is set to continue in 2022 as the impact of the pandemic on economic activity continues to weaken over time and supply-side constraints ease. Medium-term output losses relative to pre-crisis trends will vary significantly across countries and sectors as will the extent of labor market scarring. Price pressures are building up as production bottlenecks are set to persist for a while. However, inflation—despite increasing significantly in recent months due to transitory factors—is projected to moderate during 2022 and remain below the ECB’s inflation target over the medium term. Uncertainty surrounding the outlook remains high and largely related to pandemic dynamics and legacies, including induced behavioral and preference changes.
February 7, 2022
Republic of Nauru: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Nauru
Description: Early and decisive measures successfully prevented an outbreak of COVID-19 in Nauru, and as of January 2022 there have been no COVID-19 cases on the island. Strong pandemic policy measures supported the economy, which continued to expand in FY20 and FY21. Nauru’s remoteness and size constrain potential growth and it is severely exposed to the negative effects of climate change on sea levels and the ocean stock of tuna. Development challenges are exacerbated by limited capacity and a high incidence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs).