Rwanda: Technical Assistance Report-Expanding the Nowcasting Toolbox at the National Bank of Rwanda

December 20, 2023

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

Rwanda: Technical Assistance Report-Expanding the Nowcasting Toolbox at the National Bank of Rwanda, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2023) accessed December 22, 2024

Summary

In response to a request from the National Bank of Rwanda and in accordance with the AFE workplan, a virtual technical assistance (TA) mission on Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) took place during December 12–21, 2022. The objectives of the mission were twofold: (i) to further strengthen the nowcasting framework for GDP and CPI inflation, and (ii) to initiate the work on developing a simple, efficient, and robust process for forecasting the external variables for the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). The new CPI nowcasting system now includes the monthly forecasts of ten subgroups of the core CPI inflation, as well as two subgroups of food inflation, enabling the assessment of the key drivers of inflation and the nature of inflation shocks. Similarly, the new GDP nowcasting system covers production in different sectors and significantly improves the forecasting results.

Subject: Consumer price indexes, Economic forecasting, GDP forecasting, Inflation, International organization, Monetary policy, National accounts, Prices

Keywords: Central Banking., Consumer price indexes, Economic Forecasting and Analysis, GDP forecasting, Headline CPI inflation outcome, IMF executive director, IMF Monetary, Inflation, Inflation Dashboard-Contribution, Mission chief, Monetary Policy, NBR staff, Nowcasting, TA mission

Publication Details

Pages:

29
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Country Report No. 2023/437
Stock No:

1RWAEA2023005
ISBN:

9798400264481
ISSN:

1934-7685

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