Euro Area Policies: Selected Issues

July 19, 2018

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Euro Area Policies: Selected Issues, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2018) accessed December 21, 2024

Summary

This Selected Issues paper focuses on long-term impact of Brexit on the European Union (EU). This paper examines consequences of Brexit on the EU27 under various post-Brexit scenarios by using two different complementary approaches. Our results, which are broadly in line with recent findings in the literature, are twofold. First, Brexit would have negative effects on the EU27 as well, given the depth and the complexity of the EU-U.K. integration. Similar to various empirical studies, it has been observed that the estimated long-term output and employment losses (in percent) for the EU27 in the study are on average lower than the corresponding losses for the UK estimated in the literature. The level of output and employment are estimated to fall at most by up to 1.5 percent and 0.7 percent in the long run in the event of a ‘hard’ Brexit scenario, respectively. A “soft” Brexit outcome would lead to much lower losses.

Subject: Education, Employment, Labor, Labor force, Unemployment, Unemployment rate

Keywords: Brexit, CR, Employment, Employment growth, Euro area, EU-U.K. trade integration, Global, ISCR, Job prospect, Labor force, U.K. migrant, Unemployment, Unemployment rate, Youth employment

Publication Details

Pages:

38
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Country Report No. 2018/224
Stock No:

1EUREA2018002
ISBN:

9781484368961
ISSN:

1934-7685

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