Australia: 2012 Article IV Consultation—Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Australia
IMF Staff Country Reports, November 15, 2012
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- Australia: 2012 Article IV Consultation—Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Australia
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Bibliographic details
- Published: November 15, 2012
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475561357.002
Overview
- GDP growth is likely to remain strong, although narrowly driven by a mining investment boom, increasing the economy’s vulnerability to terms of trade shocks.
- Outside the mining sector, growth is expected to be slow with still weak consumer confidence and a strong exchange rate weighing on business investment.
- The main risks are external, and include an intensification of the euro crisis and a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China.
Growth drivers and outlook
- Mining investment boom is the primary driver of strong overall GDP growth.
- Non-mining sectors are expected to experience slow growth due to:
- weak consumer confidence
- a strong exchange rate weighing on business investment
Main risks and vulnerabilities
- Increased vulnerability to terms of trade shocks driven by concentration of growth in mining investment.
- External shock scenarios highlighted:
- an intensification of the euro crisis
- a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China
Subjects and keywords (as supplied)
- Subjects: Banking, Exchange rates, External debt, Financial crises, Income, International trade, National accounts, Public debt, Terms of trade
- Keywords: article IV consultation discussion, Asia and Pacific, CR, economy, Global, growth prospect, Income, ISCR, liability positions vis à vis nonresident, market, membership status, mining investment, rate, reserve bank of Australia, Terms of trade