Eighteenth Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference

The Global Financial Cycle

November 2-3, 2017

Watch: Videos from the 2017 Annual Research Conference

Opening Remarks by Christine Lagarde on “The Global Financial Cycle”
Delivered at the Eighteenth Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference on November 2, 2017, Washington, D.C.
Video Player is loading.
Current Time 0:00
Duration 13:58
Loaded: 0%
Stream Type LIVE
Remaining Time 13:58
 
1x
    • Chapters
    • descriptions off, selected
    • captions off, selected
    • en (Main), selected
    Session 1: Financial, Real, and Commodity Cycles
      1. Now Playing
        Up NextOpening Remarks by Christine Lagarde on “The Global Financial Cycle”
      2. Now Playing
        Up NextSession 1: Financial, Real, and Commodity Cycles
      3. Now Playing
        Up NextSession 2: Global Financial Cycle - A Myth?
      4. Now Playing
        Up NextSession 3: Role of the Exchange Rate
      5. Now Playing
        Up NextMundell-Fleming Lecture: Trade Policy and the Macroeconomy
      6. Now Playing
        Up NextSession 4: Transmission of Global Financial Shocks
      7. Now Playing
        Up NextSession 5: Real and Distributional Impacts
      8. Now Playing
        Up NextSession 6: Taming the Global Financial Cycle
      9. Now Playing
        Up NextEconomic Forum: The Global Financial Cycle

    The theme of this year’s conference is “The Global Financial Cycle. The conference is intended to provide a forum for discussing innovative research from both within and outside the IMF, and to facilitate the exchange of views among researchers and policymakers. Barry Eichengreen (University of California, Berkeley) will deliver the Mundell-Fleming Lecture.

    The conference is open to the public and registration is required (registration will include all conference sessions, the Mundell-Fleming Lecture, and the Economic Forum). Please note that the deadline for registration for this conference has now passedRegistered attendees will be required to present photo identification on entering the IMF at 1900 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W., Washington D.C. For questions regarding the conference, please email ARC@imf.org.

    ** Watch the live webcast of the Opening Remarks, the Mundell-Fleming lecture and the Economic Forum on this page **

    Thursday, November 2, 2017

    08:00 – 09:00am

    Registration and Continental Breakfast

    09:00 – 09:15am

    Opening RemarksChristine Lagarde (Managing Director, IMF)

    09:15 – 10:45am

    Session 1: Financial, Real, and Commodity Cycles

    Chair: David Lipton (First Deputy Managing Director, IMF)

    Capital Flow Cycles, A Long Global View
    Paper

    Carmen Reinhart (Harvard University),
    Vincent Reinhart (Standish Mellon Asset Management), and Christoph Trebesch (Kiel Institute for the World Economy)
    Presentation

    Discussant: Jeromin Zettelmeyer (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
    Presentation

    Global Macro-Financial Cycles and Spillovers
    Paper

    Jongrim Ha (World Bank), M. Ayhan Kose (World Bank), Christopher Otrok (University of Missouri), and Eswar Prasad (Cornell University)

    Discussant: Mark Watson (Princeton University)

    10:45 – 11:00am

     ***Coffee Break***

    11:00 – 12:30pm

    Session 2: Global Financial Cycle: A Myth?

    ChairJonathan D. Ostry (Deputy Director, Research Department, IMF)

    Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums
    Paper

    Òscar Jordà (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco), Moritz Schularick (University of Bonn), Alan M. Taylor (University of California, Davis), and Felix Ward (University of Bonn)
    Presentation

    Discussant: Linda Goldberg (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

    How Important is the Global Financial Cycle? Evidence from Capital Flows
    Paper

    Eugenio Cerutti (IMF), Stijn Claessens (Bank for International Settlements), and Andrew K. Rose (University of California, Berkeley)

    Discussant: Kristin Forbes (MIT Sloan School of Management)

    12:35 – 1:55pm

     ***Lunch Break***
    (By invitation only)

    Luncheon Remarks by Richard Berner (Director, Office of Financial Research, U.S. Department of the Treasury)

    Introduction by Tobias Adrian (Financial Counsellor and Director, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF)

    2:00 – 4:00pm

    Session 3: Role of the Exchange Rate

    Chair: Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti (Deputy Director, Research Department, IMF)

    On the Global Financial Market Integration “Swoosh” and the Trilemma
    Paper

    Geert Bekaert (Columbia Business School) and Arnaud Mehl (European Central Bank)  

    Discussant: Jay Shambaugh (The George Washington University)
    Presentation

    The Dollar Exchange Rate as a Global Risk Factor: Evidence from Investment
    Paper

    Stefan Avdjiev (Bank for International Settlements), Valentina Bruno (American University), Catherine Koch (Bank for International Settlements), and Hyun Song Shin (Bank for International Settlements)

    Discussant: Signe Krogstrup (IMF)
    Presentation

    Currency Manipulation
    Paper

    Tarek A. Hassan (University of Chicago), Thomas M. Mertens (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco), and Tony Zhang (University of Chicago)
    Presentation

    Discussant: Anton Korinek (Johns Hopkins University)
    Presentation

    4:00 – 4:15pm

     ***Coffee Break***

    4:15 – 5:45pm

    Mundell-Fleming Lecture: Trade Policy and the Macroeconomy
    Lecture

    Barry Eichengreen (University of California, Berkeley)

    Introduction by Maurice Obstfeld (Economic Counsellor and Director, Research Department, IMF)

    Friday, November 3, 2017

    08:15 – 09:15am

    Registration and Continental Breakfast

    09:15 – 10:45am

    Session 4: Transmission of Global Financial Shocks

    Chair:  Giovanni Dell’Ariccia (Deputy Director, Research Department, IMF)

    International Credit Supply Shocks
    Paper

    Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi (Bank of England), Andrea Ferrero (University of Oxford), and Alessandro Rebucci (Johns Hopkins University)
    Presentation

    Discussant: Gaston Gelos (IMF)
    Presentation

    International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles
    Paper

    Yusuf Soner Baskaya (University of Glasgow), Julian di Giovanni (Universitat Pompeu Fabra), Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan (University of Maryland), and Mehmet Fatih Ulu (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey)
    Presentation

    Discussant: Maria Soledad Martinez Peria (IMF)
    Presentation

    10:45 – 11:00am

     ***Coffee Break***

    11:00 – 12:30pm

    Session 5: Real and Distributional Impacts

    Chair: Sharmini Coorey (Director, Institute for Capacity Development)

    Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide
    PaperAppendix

    Atif R. Mian (Princeton University), Amir Sufi (University of Chicago), and Emil Verner (Princeton University)
    Presentation

    Discussant: Victoria Ivashina (Harvard Business School)
    Presentation

    The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Financial Globalization: Evidence from Macro and Sectoral Data
    Paper

    Davide Furceri (IMF), Prakash Loungani (IMF), and Jonathan D. Ostry (IMF)
    Presentation

    Discussant: Mauricio Larrain (Financial Market Commission of Chile and Catholic University of Chile)
    Presentation

    12:35 – 1:55pm

     ***Lunch Break***
    (By invitation only)

    2:00 – 4:00pm

    Session 6: Taming the Global Financial Cycle

    Chair: Alejandro Werner (Director, Western Hemisphere Department, IMF)

    Global Financial Cycle and Liquidity Management
    Paper

    Olivier Jeanne (Johns Hopkins University) and Damiano Sandri (IMF)
    Presentation

    Discussant: Gianluca Benigno (IMF and London School of Economics)
    Presentation

    Global Price of Risk and Stabilization Policies
    Paper

    Tobias Adrian (IMF), Daniel Stackman (NYU Stern School of Business), and Erik Vogt (Citadel LLC)
    Presentation

    Discussant: Hanno Lustig (Stanford Graduate School of Business)

    Liability Dollarization, Sudden Stops, & Optimal Financial Policy
    Paper

    Enrique G. Mendoza (University of Pennsylvania), and Eugenio Rojas (University of Pennsylvania)
    Presentation

    Discussant: Cristina Arellano (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)
    Presentation

    4:00 – 4:15pm

     ***Coffee Break***

    4:15 – 5:45pm

    Economic Forum: The Global Financial Cycle – Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses

    Moderator: Maurice Obstfeld (Economic Counsellor and Director, Research Department, IMF)

    Panelists:

    • Benoit Coeuré (European Central Bank)

      Presentation
    • José De Gregorio (University of Chile and Peterson Institute for International Economics)

      Presentation
    • Rakesh Mohan (Yale Jackson Institute for Global Affairs)

      Presentation
    • Hélène Rey (London Business School)

      Presentation

    Conference Organizing Committee: Mahvash S. Qureshi (IMF, Conference Chair), Jorge Alvarez (IMF), Emine Boz (IMF, Co-Editor of the IMF Economic Review), Raphael Espinoza (IMF), Giang Ho (IMF), Nan Li (Associate Editor of the IMF Economic Review), Leonardo Martinez (IMF), Camelia Minoiu (IMF), and Linda Tesar (Editor-in-Chief of the IMF Economic Review, University of Michigan)

    Conference Coordinator: Tracey Lookadoo

    Disclaimer: The website contains papers and web links to papers that will be presented at the Eighteenth Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference (ARC). The views expressed in these papers are those of the authors only, and the presence of them, or of links to them, on the IMF website does not imply that the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management endorses or shares the views expressed in the papers.