Global Financial Integration, Stability and Business Cycles: Exploring the Links
European Central Bank – International Monetary Fund Workshop
Conference venue: Eurotower, Kaiserstraße 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Room CIV, 2nd floor
Frankfurt, November 16-17, 2004
This conference is jointly organized by the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Attendance is by invitation only and is not open to the media. Individuals who wish to attend the conference should send an email to sabine.wiedemann@ecb.int as soon as possible, stating their affiliation and a short explanation of their business case supporting their request.
Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view conference papers.
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08:30 |
Registration |
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09:00 |
Opening remarks - O. Issing (ECB) |
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Session 1: International Financial Linkages and Crises |
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09:15 |
An International Financial Transmission Model, M. Ehrmann (ECB), M. Fratzscher (ECB) and R. Rigobon (MIT) |
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Discussant: D. Malliaropulos (University of Piraeus and the National Bank of Greece) |
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10:15 |
What Drives International Bank Flows? Politics, Institutions & Other Determinants, E. Papaioannou (London Business School) |
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Discussant: C. Ostergaard (Norwegian School of Management) |
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11:15 |
Coffee break |
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11:30 |
The Contagion Box: Measuring Financial Markets Co-Movements by Regression Quantiles, L. Cappiello (ECB), B. Gerard (Norwegian School of Management) and S. Manganelli (ECB) |
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Discussant: M. Pritsker (Federal Reserve Board) |
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12:30 |
The Real Effect of Banking Crises, G. Dell'Ariccia (IMF), E. Detragiache (IMF), R. Rajan (IMF) |
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Discussant: F. Westermann (University of Munich) |
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13.30 |
Lunch |
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Keynote address - T. Padoa-Schioppa (ECB) |
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Session 2: International Financial Integration, Capital Flows and Institutions |
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Chairman: A. Mody (IMF) |
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14:30 |
Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries? An Empirical Investigation, L. Alfaro (Harvard Business School), S. Kalemli-Ozcan (University of Houston) and V. Volosovych (University of Houston) |
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Discussant: C. Detken (ECB) |
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15:30 |
Sovereign Credit Ratings and International Portfolio Flows, A. Gande (Vanderbilt University) and D. Parsley (Vanderbilt University) |
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Discussant: C. Buch (Tuebingen University) |
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16:30 |
Coffee break |
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16:45 |
Home Bias in Equities under New Open Economy Macroeconomics, C. Engel (University of Wisconsin) and A. Matsumoto (IMF) |
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Discussant: K. Adjaoute (HSBC Private Bank) |
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17:45 |
Financial Globalisation and Exchange Rates, P. Lane (Trinity College Dublin) and G. M. Milesi-Ferretti (IMF) |
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Discussant: M. Binder (Goethe University, Frankfurt) |
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20:00 |
Dinner at the Frankfurter Hof |
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08:30 |
Registration |
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Session 3: The Role of Real and Financial Linkages in the Synchronisation of the Business Cycle |
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Chairman: F. di Mauro (ECB) |
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09:00 |
Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: A Global VAR Analysis, S. Dees (ECB), F. di Mauro (ECB), H. Pesaran (University of Cambridge) and V. Smith (University of Cambridge) |
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Discussant: R. Wouters (National Bank of Belgium) |
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10:00 |
Structural Analysis of US and EA Business Cycles, S. Adjémian (Université Maine), M. Darracq Pariès (ECB) and F. Smets (ECB) |
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Discussant: A. Levin (Federal Reserve Board) |
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11:00 |
Coffee break |
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11:15 |
Business Cycle Synchronisation in the Enlarged EU, Z. Darvas (Magyar Nemzeti Bank) and G. Szapáry (Magyar Nemzeti Bank) |
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Discussant: D. Gros (Centre for European Policy Studies) |
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12:15 |
Synchronised Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate, R. McKinnon (Stanford University) and G. Schnabl (Tuebingen University) |
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Discussant: M. Melvin (Arizona State University) |
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13:15 |
Lunch |
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14:30-16.00 |
Policy Panel: Changing Real and Financial Linkages: Implications for Transmission of Shocks and for Policy |
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Chairman: O. Issing (ECB) |
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Panellists: J. Gagnon (Federal Reserve Board) |
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W. McKibbin (Lowy Institute for International Policy, ANU and Reserve Bank of Australia) |
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J. Murray (Bank of Canada) |
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16:00 |
Coffee break |
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16:15-17:00 |
G. Bekaert (Columbia University) |
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Keynote lecture on "The Real Effects of Financial Liberalisation" |
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17:00-18:30 |
Policy Panel: International Financial Stability and Integration |
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Chairman: J.-C. Trichet (ECB) |
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Panellists: A. Crockett (JP Morgan Chase International) |
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T. Ito (University of Tokyo) |
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K. Rogoff (Harvard University) |
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