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    Long-Run Fiscal Sustainability in Germany

    Symposium jointly organized by the IMF, Bertelsmann Foundation and the Institute for Economic Research
    November 20, 2006
    Berlin, Germany 


    The International Monetary Fund, together with the Bertelsmann Foundation and the Institute for Economic Research (Ifo), have organized a Symposium on Long-Run Fiscal Sustainability in Germany to be held in Berlin on November 20, 2006.

    Demographic change in Germany will enter an acute phase from 2010 onward when the "baby-boomers" start retiring. This is projected to cause a sharp rise in public expenditure at all levels of government, while public revenue is projected to evolve more gradually in line with moderate GDP growth. Therefore, adjustments in fiscal and other economic policies, and their accompanying legal framework, have to be made to increase the long-term sustainability of the public finances. The symposium focuses on the following three aspects with a view to stimulating and informing the domestic debate on these issues.

    • Transparency: How large are potential fiscal risks and in which areas of public spending are they most pressing? How do politicians at the federal and state level assess the challenges ahead?
    • Options: What are the policy options and what are the conditions for their successful use?
    • Implementation: What is the experience in other countries with the implementation of measures to improve the long-term sustainability of public finances?

    The symposium will be open to the public. To register please send an e-mail with your name and affiliation to nicole.kleimann@bertelsmann.de.

    Disclaimer
    The views expressed in these papers are those of the authors only, and the presence of them, or of links to them, on the IMF website does not imply that the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management endorses or shares the views expressed in the papers.

    Access the English presentations (this page is available in German only)

    PROGRAM

    Monday, November 20, 2006
    9:30am - 9:40am

    Opening Remarks

      Dr. Johannes Meier (IMF)
    Bertelsmann Foundation
    9:40am - 10:00am

    Session 1
    Fiscal Sustainability in the Current Political Agenda


      Sustainable Public Finances - The Opportunities for a Grand-Coalition Govt.
    Thomas Mirow
    Secretary of State, Federal Ministry of Finance
    10:00am - 11:10am

    Session 2
    The Public Sector Solvency Gap in Germany—Diagnoses


      Updated Calculations on Long-Run Fiscal Sustainability
    Martin Werding
    Ifo [15 min]

    A Long-Run Fiscal Baseline and Indicative Public Sector Balance Sheet
    Bob Traa
    IMF [15 min]

    Financial Situation at Different Levels of Government
    Helmut Seitz
    University of Dresden [15 min]

    Comment
    Rainer Wiegard
    Federal Minister of Finance, Schleswig Holstein [15 min]

    Floor discussion [15 min]
    11:15am - 11:30am

    Coffee Break

    11:30am–12:45pm

    Session 3
    International Best Practices and Options for Strengthening Germany's Long-Run Fiscal Outlook


      Fiscal Consolidation: The Swedish Experience
    Per Molander
    Advisor to Prime Minister Göran Persson, former Minister of Finance [15 min]

    International Best Practices Fiscal Consolidation
    Uwe Wagschal
    University of Heidelberg [15 min]

    Political Governance
    Johannes Meier
    Bertelsmann Foundation [15 min]

    Comment
    Christian Kastrop
    Deputy Director General, Economic Policy Department, Federal Ministry of Finance [15 min]

    Floor discussion [15 min]
    12:45pm–2:00pm

    Lunch

    2:00pm–3:00pm

    Session 4
    Cross-Country Perspectives


      Who will Pay; Global Perspectives
    Peter Heller
    Deputy Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF [15 min]

    The Situation in the EU and the Role of the EU Commission
    Michaele Schreyer
    Former Member of the European Commission, Visiting Lecturer Freie Universität of Berlin [15 min]

    Comment
    Moritz Kraemer
    Standard & Poors [15 min]

    Floor discussion [15 min]
    3:00pm–3:30pm

    Coffee Break

    3:30pm–5:00pm

    Session 5
    Concluding Panel Discussion (Moderator: Johannes Meier)


      Impulse: Georg Milbradt
    Prime Minister, Saxony
    • Rainer Wiegard
      Federal Minister of Finance, Schleswig Holstein
    • Hans-Werner Sinn
      President of Ifo
    • Servaas Deroose
      Director, ECFIN: Macroeconomy of the Euro Area and the EU
    • Ajai Chopra
      Deputy Director and Mission Chief for Germany, European Department, IMF
    • Moritz Kraemer
      Managing Director, Sovereign and International Public Finance Ratings, Standard & Poor's
    Concluding remarks
    Johannes Meier
    Bertelsmann Foundation
    International Monetary Fund
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