Exchange Rates and External Adjustment

Swiss National Bank, International Monetary Fund, and IMF Economic Review
Zurich

June 24-25, 2016

The Swiss National Bank (SNB), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the IMF Economic Review are organizing a joint conference on "Exchange Rates and External Adjustment". The conference will provide a forum to discuss recent theoretical and empirical research on the macroeconomics and microeconomics of external adjustment, the optimal response of monetary, exchange rate and macroprudential policies when financial frictions matter, the effects of sovereign risk, and the role of exchange rates at the sector and aggregate levels. The conference will be hosted by the Swiss National Bank and will take place in Zurich, Switzerland on June 24-25, 2016.

Agenda

Day 1 - June 24
8:30—9:00

Registration / Conference Venue:
Metropol, Fraumünsterstrasse 12, 8001 Zurich
Session I Financial Frictions and Macroeconomic Policies
9:00–9:50

Revisiting Macroprudential Policy In Open-Economy Models With Financial Frictions

Authors: Stephanie-Schmitt-Grohe (Columbia University) and Martin Uribe (Columbia University)
Presentation

Discussant: Damiano Sandri (IMF)
Presentation
9:50—10:20

Coffee Break
10:20–11:10

Exchange Rate Adjustment in Financial Crises

Authors: Michael Devereux (University of British Columbia) and Changhua Yu (CCER, Peking University)
Paper | Presentation

Discussant: Tommaso Monacelli (Bocconi)
Presentation
11:10–12:00

Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence

Authors: Olivier Blanchard (PIIE), Jonathan D. Ostry (IMF), Atish R. Ghosh (IMF), and Marcos Chamon (IMF)
Paper | Presentation

Discussant: Luca Fornaro (CREI)
Presentation

12:00—13:30

Lunch break
Session II Exchange Rates, Trade, and Capital Flows
13:30–14:20

China’s Imbalances: Trade Integration in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

Authors: George Alessandria (University of Rochester), Horag Choi (Monash University), and Dan Lu (University of Rochester)
Paper | Presentation

Discussant: Raphael Auer (SNB)
Presentation
14:20–15:10

How Important are Trade Prices for Trade Flows?

Authors: Logan T. Lewis (Federal Reserve Board)
Paper | Presentation

Discussant: Philip Sauré (SNB)
Presentation
15:10—15:40

Coffee Break
Session III Exchange Rates and Trade
15:40–16:30

Exchange Rates and Trade: Disconnected?

Authors: Daniel Leigh (IMF), Weicheng Lian (IMF), Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro (IMF), Rachel Szymanski (IMF), Viktor Tsyrennikov (IMF) and Hong Yang (IMF)
Paper | Presentation

Discussant: Matthieu Bussiere (Bank of France)
Presentation

16:30–17:20

The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates in a Great Recession

Authors: Giancarlo Corsetti (Cambridge University), Keith Kuester (University of Bonn) and Gernot Mueller (University of Tuebingen)
Paper | Presentation

Discussant: Giovanni Lombardo (BIS)
Presentation
18:30

Dinner

Speaker: Maurice Obstfeld, Economic Counsellor and Research Department Director, International Monetary Fund
Day 2 - June 25
Session IV Inflation Dynamics
8:45–9:35

The Distributional Consequences of Large Devaluations

Authors: Javier Cravino (University of Michigan) and Andrei Levchenko (University of Michigan)
Paper | Presentation

Discussant: Raphael Schoenle (Brandeis)
Presentation
9:35–10:25

International Inflation Spillovers Through Input Linkages

Authors: Raphael Auer (BIS and SNB), Andrei Levchenko (University of Michigan), and Philip Sauré (SNB)
Paper | Presentation

Discussant: Ariel Burstein (UCLA)
Presentation

10:25—10:50

Coffee Break
Session V Exchange Rate Policies
10:50–11:40

Sustainable Exchange Rates: Currency Pegs and the Central Bank's Balance Sheet

Authors: Manuel Amador (Minneapolis Fed and University of Minnesota), Javier Bianchi (Minneapolis Fed), Luigi Bocola (Northwestern University) and Fabrizio Perri (Minneapolis Fed)
Presentation

Discussant: Marco Del Negro (New York Fed)
Presentation
11:40–12:30

Exchange Rate Disconnect

Authors: Oleg Itskhoki (Princeton University) and Dmitry Mukhin (Princeton University)
Presentation

Discussant: Cedric Tille (The Graduate Institute Geneva)
Presentation

13:00

Lunch

Organizing committee:

Raphael Auer (SNB), Ariel Burstein (UCLA and IMF Economic Review), Andreas Fischer (SNB), Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (UC Berkeley and IMF Economic Review), Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti (IMF and IMF Economic Review), Maurice Obstfeld (IMF), Pau Rabanal (IMF and IMF Economic Review), and Philip Sauré (SNB). IMF Conference Coordinator: Tracey Lookadoo

Disclaimer: This website contains papers and web links to papers that will be presented at the Exchange Rates and External Adjustment Conference. The views expressed in these papers are those of the authors only, and the presence of them, or of links to them, on the IMF website does not imply that the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management endorses or shares the views expressed in the papers.