IMF Statement at the end of a Staff Visit to Chad
IMF News, February 13, 2020
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- Published: February 13, 2020
Economic outlook and activity
- Economic activity is expected to continue to recover and the macroeconomic outlook remains broadly positive.
- Non-oil economy projected to grow at 3 percent this year, supported by:
- higher public investment,
- domestic arrears repayment,
- pick-up in cotton and livestock.
- Oil GDP expected to grow by 7.5 percent due to new extraction technologies and additional production from new fields.
- Inflation last year was in negative territory (-1 percent annual average) and is projected to remain below 3 percent this year.
Program performance and 2019 assessment
- Preliminary data suggest that performance under the IMF-supported program was broadly satisfactory in 2019.
- Fiscal performance on track.
- Both non-oil and oil revenues exceeded projections.
- Wage bill slightly exceeded its target, offset by:
- underspending on goods and services, mainly reflecting procurement problems.
- Domestic investments exceeded the end-year target due to security spending.
- Banking sector liquidity has improved, reflecting higher deposit collection, but vulnerabilities remain in some banks.
Emerging risks and fiscal pressures
- Spending pressures are emerging, which could undermine the fiscal adjustment implemented since the 2014-15 economic crisis.
- Maintaining fiscal discipline in the run up to the parliamentary and presidential elections is critical for:
- macroeconomic stability,
- maintaining a sustainable debt position.
Policy recommendations and reform priorities
- Authorities should continue to focus on:
- strengthening domestic revenue mobilization,
- streamlining exemptions,
- improving VAT collection,
- controlling the wage bill,
- increasing social spending,
- clearing domestic arrears.
- Continue the reform agenda, including in the banking sector.
Engagement, next steps, and contacts
- IMF mission led by Edward Gemayel visited N’Djamena during February 6-12 to take stock of developments and follow-up on structural reform implementation.
- Discussions for the 6th and last review under the current ECF arrangement will be:
- initiated in Washington during the Spring Meetings,
- pursued in N’Djamena at the end of April.
- During the visit, the mission met:
- Mr. Tahir Hamid Nguilin, Minister of Finance and Budget,
- Mr. Issa Doubragne, Minister of Economy and Development Planning,
- Mr. Annour Mahamat Hassan, the National Director of BEAC,
- other senior officials and representatives of international development partners.
- Media relations contact: PRESS OFFICER: Lucie Mboto Fouda; Phone: +1 202 623-7100; Email: MEDIA@IMF.org
IMF Statement at the end of a Staff Visit to Chad (February 13, 2020).