KYRGYZ REPUBLIC: Estimation of White (Light) Oil Reexport

Scope, Methodology, Compilation Practices, and Data Sources

The National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic made a decision to carry out an additional estimation of light oil re-export due to increased incidence of informal oil exports across southern borders of Kyrgyzstan as a result of oil price difference with neighboring countries. The additional estimation is calculated as an average of 2 methods: balance method and method based on the volume of re-export proceeding from the number of vehicles.

Rave= (R1+R2)/2,

Rave – The average of light oil products reexport based on 2 methods.

R1 – Balance method. The residue of light oil products’ volume which is not consumed is subsequently re-exported.

R1= Impm * (((Impv-A)*((∑Рv+∑Dv)/ Impv))/ Impv )

A – Conditional oil products market size in Kyrgyzstan;

Impv – Volume of oil imports and domestic production of petrol during the reporting period;

Impm – Value of oil imports and domestic production of petrol during the reporting period;

Рv – Volume of car petrol imports and domestic production of petrol during the reporting period;

∑Dv – Volume of diesel fuel imports and domestic production of diesel during the reporting period.

 

R2 – The method of calculation based on the volume of reexport according to the number of vehicles.

R2 = ((∑Рv - (QP*V)) *PrP) + ((∑Dv – (QD*V))*PrD)

Рv – Volume of car petrol imports and domestic production of petrol during the reporting period;

∑Dv – Volume of diesel fuel imports and domestic production of diesel during the reporting period;

V – Number of vehicles during the reporting period;

PrP – Car petrol price;

PrD– Diesel fuel price;

QP Share of petrol consumption by 1 vehicle;

QDShare of diesel fuel consumption by 1 vehicle.

Data Sources

Import – official statistics;

Oil products market size – expert opinions.

Linkages Across Statistical Domains

Estimation is included in both balance of payments and national accounts statistics.