Connect with IMF Institute
MPAFx

Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAFx)

Deadline passed

Session No.: OL 23.231

Location: Course conducted online

Date: September 1, 2023 - December 31, 2023 (17 weeks)

Delivery Method: Online Training

Primary Language: English

    Target Audience

    All government officials are welcome to register. The course is particularly well-suited for officials in central banks that are in the early stages of introducing Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems (FPAS) with IMF assistance. The course is offered in English.

    Back to top

    Qualifications

    Participants are expected to have a background in undergraduate macroeconomics, statistics, and econometrics. Participants are provided with guidance on how to access Matlab or Octave software.

    Back to top

    Course Description

    This online course, presented by the Institute for Capacity Development, introduces participants to a semi-structural macroeconomic model often used as a core of FPAS (Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems) at the central banks. It also shows how to implement the key equations of a canonical quarterly projection model (QPM) in a macroeconomic modeling software. This course uses detailed country data highlighting an inflation targeting central bank, for hands-on historical filtration, forecasting, and calibration exercises.

    The course covers two main technical aspects: 

    • introduction to a canonical New Keynesian model structure and its key properties; and 
    • implementation of the QPM in Matlab/Octave and the application of IRIS toolbox for solving and maintaining the QPM, as well as forecasting with the QPM.
    Back to top

    Course Objectives

    Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:

    • Explain the key building blocks of a canonical semi-structural QPM.
    • Interpret the key model equations from a macroeconomic point of view.
    • Implement a simple QPM using a specialized software for macroeconomic modelling.
    • Distinguish the key elements of a QPM in a state-space form (i.e., shocks, observable and unobservable variables, measurement and transition equations, steady-state parameters, equation coefficients).
    • Identify necessary codes for data transformation, filtration and evaluation of the QPM properties.
    • Apply the basic IRIS Toolbox functions for solving the model.
    • Create output reports using model codes.
    • Develop a basic calibration of the QPM.
    • Produce a baseline forecast and alternative scenarios using the QPM.
    Back to top

    Apply Now - Application deadline approaching:

    IMF offers online training to government officials and the public. Click Learn more to find our current offerings.

    Monetary and Financial Statistics (MFSX)

    English | October 15, 2024 - December 17, 2024 | Online Training | Course conducted online

    Apply online by November 22, 2024

    Nowcasting (NWC)

    English | February 17-28, 2025 | In-person Training | New Delhi, India

    Apply online by November 22, 2024

    Selected Issues in the Regulation of Fintech (SIFR)

    English (French, Portuguese) | January 13-17, 2025 | In-person Training | Ebene, Mauritius

    Apply online by November 22, 2024

    Managing Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policies (MCF)

    English | February 10-21, 2025 | In-person Training | Singapore, Singapore

    Apply online by November 22, 2024

    Institutional Sector Accounts (ISA)

    English | December 9-13, 2024 | In-person Training | New Delhi, India

    Apply online by November 23, 2024