Connect with IMF Institute

Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAF)

Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting

This course, presented by the Institute for Capacity Development, provides rigorous training on the use of simple Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting. It emphasizes analysis of monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks. Participants are provided with the tools necessary to develop or extend the canonical model to fit their own monetary policy framework and selected features of their country’s economy. In the in-person course, country case studies are used to reinforce participant understanding and to help them compare and assess a variety of possible experiences.

Read More Topic : Monetary Exchange Rate and Capital Account Policies

    Target Audience

    Mid-level to senior officials responsible for monetary policy decision making and staff doing macroeconomic analysis and forecasting or operating macroeconomic models.

    Back to top

    Qualifications

    Participants are expected to have an advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience. It is strongly recommended that applicants have completed the Monetary Policy (MP) course and the online Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAFx) course. Participants are expected to be comfortable using quantitative software such as EViews and Matlab/Octave, although specific knowledge of these is not required.

    Back to top

    Course Objectives

    Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:

    • Customize a simple model of an economy that embodies the monetary policy transmission mechanism, and the shocks this economy may face. 
    • Acquire and apply tools used in modern central banks to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting using the small semi-structural model. 
    • Conduct nowcasting and near-term forecasting using estimation-based econometric techniques supported by expert judgment.
    • Use the small semi-structural model to develop consistent medium-term quarterly projections of key macro variables e.g., output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate. 
    • Identify risks in the baseline forecast and draw up medium-term projections for alternative scenarios that assume that the risks materialize. 
    • Start building a simple model for monetary policy analysis and forecasting using their own national data when they return home.
       
    Back to top

    Syllabus

    This two-week course aims at providing participants a rigorous training on the use of simple Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary analysis and forecasting with an emphasis on analyzing monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks. Participants are provided with the tools needed to develop and/or extend the model to fit their own monetary policy framework. Country case studies are used to reinforce participants’ understanding and to help them compare, contrast, and assess various experiences.
    Back to top

    Upcoming Offering

    Start date End date Location Delivery Method Session No. Primary & (Interpretation) language Apply
    March 3, 2025 March 14, 2025 Singapore, Singapore Blended Training ST 25.06 English Cancelled
    October 20, 2025 October 31, 2025 Vienna, Austria Blended Training JV 25.32 English Apply online by June 29, 2025
    December 1, 2025 December 12, 2025 Singapore, Singapore Blended Training ST 25.33 English Apply online by August 18, 2025
    Back to top

    Apply Now - Application deadline approaching:

    IMF offers online training to government officials and the public. Click Learn more to find our current offerings.

    Cyber Risk Supervision (CRS)

    English | January 20-24, 2025 | In-person Training | New Delhi, India

    Apply online by November 12, 2024

    Strengthening Revenue Administration for Gender Equality

    English | December 9-11, 2024 | In-person Training | New Delhi, India

    Apply online by November 13, 2024

    Cyber Risk Supervision - Path to Operational Resilience (CRS)

    English (Arabic) | January 12-16, 2025 | In-person Training | Kuwait City, Kuwait

    Apply online by November 14, 2024

    Tax Policy and Administration: Theory and Practice (TPAT)

    English (Arabic) | January 19-23, 2025 | In-person Training | Kuwait City, Kuwait

    Apply online by November 14, 2024

    Fiscal Sustainability (FS)

    English | April 14-25, 2025 | In-person Training | Singapore, Singapore

    Apply online by November 15, 2024