Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAF)
This course, presented by the Institute for Capacity Development, provides rigorous training on the use of simple Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting. It emphasizes analysis of monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks. Participants are provided with the tools necessary to develop or extend the canonical model to fit their own monetary policy framework and selected features of their country’s economy. In the in-person course, country case studies are used to reinforce participant understanding and to help them compare and assess a variety of possible experiences.
Target Audience
Mid-level to senior officials responsible for monetary policy decision making and staff doing macroeconomic analysis and forecasting or operating macroeconomic models.
Qualifications
Participants are expected to have an advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience. It is strongly recommended that applicants have completed the Monetary Policy (MP) course and the online Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAFx) course. Participants are expected to be comfortable using quantitative software such as EViews and Matlab/Octave, although specific knowledge of these is not required.
Course Objectives
Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:
- Customize a simple model of an economy that embodies the monetary policy transmission mechanism, and the shocks this economy may face.
- Acquire and apply tools used in modern central banks to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting using the small semi-structural model.
- Conduct nowcasting and near-term forecasting using estimation-based econometric techniques supported by expert judgment.
- Use the small semi-structural model to develop consistent medium-term quarterly projections of key macro variables e.g., output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate.
- Identify risks in the baseline forecast and draw up medium-term projections for alternative scenarios that assume that the risks materialize.
- Start building a simple model for monetary policy analysis and forecasting using their own national data when they return home.
Syllabus
Upcoming Offering
| Start date | End date | Location | Delivery Method | Session No. | Primary & (Interpretation) language | Apply |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 3, 2025 | March 13, 2025 | New Delhi, India | In-person Training | SA 25.11 | English | Apply online by January 17, 2025 |
| March 3, 2025 | March 14, 2025 | Singapore, Singapore | Blended Training | ST 25.06 | English | Cancelled |
| October 20, 2025 | October 31, 2025 | Vienna, Austria | Blended Training | JV 25.32 | English | Apply online by June 29, 2025 |
| December 1, 2025 | December 12, 2025 | Singapore, Singapore | Blended Training | ST 25.33 | English | Apply online by August 18, 2025 |
Implementing Effective Regulation and Supervision of Climate-related Financial Risks
English | January 27-31, 2025 | In-person Training | Colombo, Sri Lanka
Apply online by December 23, 2024
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC)
English | February 3-7, 2025 | In-person Training | New Delhi, India
Apply online by December 23, 2024
Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries - LIC-DSF
French | January 20-24, 2025 | In-person Training | Ebene, Mauritius
Apply online by December 23, 2024