On the Accuracy of Some Past and Present Forecasts

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Abstract: The topic of this paper has been inspired by something of particular interest to Michael Mussa, something to which he made major and important contributions while at the IMF. The biannual World Economic Outlook, published since the 1980s under the auspices of the Research Department, has, as its purpose, the provision of "analysis and projections . . . [as] integral elements of the IMF's surveillance of economic developments and policies in its member countries, developments in international financial markets, and the global economic system." In policy-oriented institutions (and in most businesses and individual decision making), policymaking decisions are often guided by projections and forward-looking indicators.
[JEL B10, B20]