Journal Description Editorial Committee How to Subscribe Forthcoming Articles Staff Papers Archive Copyright Information Research at the IMF India and the IMF Free Email Notification Receive emails when we post new
items of interest to you.
|
|
|
|
What Caused the 1991 Currency Crisis in India? Valerie Cerra and Sweta Chaman Saxena Full Text of this Article (PDF 136K) Abstract:
Which model best explains the 1991 currency crisis in India? Did real overvaluation contribute to the crisis? This paper seeks the answers through error correction models and by constructing the equilibrium real exchange rate using a technique developed by Gonzalo and Granger (1995). The evidence indicates that overvaluation as well as current account deficits and investor confidence played significant roles in the sharp exchange rate depreciation. The ECM model is supported by superior out-of-sample forecast performance versus a random walk model.
.
|
