Poverty Reduction, Growth and Debt Sustainability in Low-Income CIS Countries

Prepared jointly by the Europe and Central Asia Region of the World Bank and the European II Department of the IMF in consultation with the staffs of the Asian Development Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
February 4, 2002

Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view the text of this pdf file (177 kb). The Russian version of these documents is available on the World Bank's website.

Contents

I. Introduction

II. Ten Years of Transition—Achievements and Remaining Challenges

A. The Record of Macroeconomic Stabilization and Structural Reform
The Role of Initial Conditions
B. Poverty in the Low-Income CIS Countries
C. External Debt
Origins of the Debt Problem

III. Policy Priorities to Reduce Poverty and Promote Growth

A. PRSPs and Country Ownership of the Reform Agenda
B. The Challenge of Poverty Reduction
C. Domestic Policy Priorities to Promote Growth
D. Regional Policies and Challenges

IV. Policy Priorities to Reduce Poverty and Promote Growth

A. Debt and Debt Service Indicators
B. Current Strategy: A Case-by-Case approach
C. Limits to Fiscal Adjustment
D. Results of debt projections
E. Risks to these programs

V. Conclusion

Tables

1. Gross Domestic Product, 1990-2001
   
2. Inflation, 1990-2001
   
3. Income-Based Poverty Indicators
   
4. Status of World Bank Public Expenditure Reviews
   
5. General Government Social Expenditures in Selected Countries
   
6. Key Domestic Policy Reform Priorities
   
7. Production Shares in GDP, 2000
   
8. Structure of External Debt, End-2000
   
9. Fiscal Adjustment Under Baseline Scenario
   
10. Primary Fiscal Balance
    
11. Debt and Debt-Service Ratios
    
12. Macroeconomic Assumptions for Debt Sustainability Analysis
    
13. Summary of DSA results

Figures

1. Real GDP During Transition
   
2. Inflation During Transition
   
3. Primary Fiscal Balance
   
4. Income based Gini coefficients
   
5. Progress with Governance and Enterprise Restructuring EBRD Transition Indicator
   
6. Progress with Electric Power Reform
   
7. Progress with Large-Scale Privatization EBRD Transition Indicator
   
8. Investment Climate and Law and Order EBRD Transition Indicator
   
9. Structure of External Public Debt, End-2000
   
10. Debt Sustainability Under Baseline Scenario, 2000-2010

1. Quasi-fiscal activities in the CIS7
   
2. Sources of growth over the medium term
   
3. Debt reduction strategies: the Kyrgyz case
   
4. HIPC Eligibility at End-2000

Annex I (pdf file, 430 kb)

Country Notes: Debt Sustainability and Policy Priorities to Ensure Growth in the CIS7 Countries

Statistical Appendix

A New Initiative for the CIS 7 (pdf file, 24 kb)