IMF Working Papers

IMF Working Papers by Date

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December 2003

Title: Sources of Nominal Exchange Rate Fluctuations in South Africa Author/Editor: Bhundia, Ashok ; Gottschalk, Jan Series: Working Paper No. 03/252 Date: December 1, 2003 Subject(s): Exchange rates \| South Africa \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Nominal exchange rate \| real disturbances \| nominal disturbances \| structural VAR

Title: Characterizing Global Investors' Risk Appetite for Emerging Market Debt During Financial Crises Author/Editor: Dungey, Mardi ; Fry, Renee ; González-Hermosillo, Brenda ; Martin, Vance Series: Working Paper No. 03/251 Date: December 1, 2003 Subject(s): Emerging markets \| Bonds \| Debt \| Financial crisis \| fINANCIAL RISK \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Risk Aversion \| Bond Markets \| Financial Crises \| SVAR

Title: Determinants of Deflation In Hong Kong SAR Author/Editor: N'Diaye, Papa M'B. P. Series: Working Paper No. 03/250 Date: December 1, 2003 Subject(s): Deflation \| Hong Kong SAR \| Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China Author's keyword(s): Deflation \| Structural VAR

Title: External Debt, Public Investment, and Growth in Low-Income Countries Author/Editor: Clements, Benedict J. ; Bhattacharya, Rina ; Nguyen, Toan Quoc Series: Working Paper No. 03/249 Date: December 1, 2003 Subject(s): External debt \| Public investment \| Economic growth \| Low income developing countries Author's keyword(s): External Debt \| Debt Service \| Growth \| Public Investment

Title: Multinational Enterprises, International Trade, and Productivity Growth: Firm-Level Evidence from the United States Author/Editor: Keller, Wolfgang ; Yeaple, Stephen R. Series: Working Paper No. 03/248 Date: December 1, 2003 Subject(s): International trade \| United States \| Productivity \| Economic growth \| Foreign investment Author's keyword(s): Foreign direct investment \| technology transfer \| technology spillovers \| international trade

Title: Budget System Reform in Transitional Economies: The Case of the Former Yugoslav Republics Author/Editor: Diamond, Jack ; Last, Duncan Series: Working Paper No. 03/247 Date: December 1, 2003 Subject(s): Budgetary reforms \| Yugoslavia \| Yugoslavia, Federal Republic of Author's keyword(s): Budget Reform \| Yugoslavia

Title: Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy: An Empirical Exploration Author/Editor: Kose, M. Ayhan ; Prasad, Eswar ; Terrones, Marco Series: Working Paper No. 03/246 Date: December 1, 2003 Subject(s): Business cycles \| Globalization Author's keyword(s): Business cycles \| macroeconomic fluctuations \| volatility \| correlations \| globalization

Title: China's Integration into the World Economy: Implications for Developing Countries Author/Editor: Yang, Yongzheng Series: Working Paper No. 03/245 Date: December 1, 2003 Subject(s): Development \| China \| World Trade Organization \| Exports \| Trade \| China, People's Republic of Author's keyword(s): China \| WTO Accession \| export competition \| FDI diversion \| developing countries

Title: The Effects of Fiscal Policies on the Economic Development of Women in the Middle East and North Africa Author/Editor: Laframboise, Nicole ; Trumbic, Tea Series: Working Paper No. 03/244 Date: December 1, 2003 Subject(s): Fiscal policy \| Middle East \| North Africa \| Development \| Gender equality \| Government expenditures Author's keyword(s): Government social spending \| social indicators \| gender bias

Title: Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes Author/Editor: Rogoff, Kenneth ; Husain, Aasim M. ; Mody, Ashoka ; Brooks, Robin ; Oomes, Nienke Series: Working Paper No. 03/243 Date: December 1, 2003 Subject(s): Exchange rate regimes \| Economic conditions Author's keyword(s): Exchange Rate Regimes \| economic performance

Title: Are Credit Default Swaps Spreads High in Emerging Markets-An Alternative Methodology for Proxying Recovery Value Author/Editor: Singh, Manmohan Series: Working Paper No. 03/242 Date: December 1, 2003 Subject(s): Credit \| Emerging markets \| Economic recovery \| Bonds Author's keyword(s): Recovery value \| probability of default \| credit default swaps

Title: IMF and the Baltics: A Decade of Cooperation Author/Editor: Knöbl, Adalbert ; Haas, Richard D. Series: Working Paper No. 03/241 Date: December 1, 2003 Subject(s): Currency boards \| Baltics \| Fund role \| Economic reforms \| Transition economies Author's keyword(s): Currency reform \| currency board \| transition to market economy

Title: Patterns of Shocks and Regional Monetary Cooperation in South Asia Author/Editor: Maskay, Nephil Matangi Series: Working Paper No. 03/240 Date: December 1, 2003 Subject(s): Monetary policy \| Asia \| Structural adjustment \| Trade Author's keyword(s): South Asia \| shocks \| regional monetary cooperation

Title: Trade Liberalization Strategies: What Could South Eastern Europe Learn From CEFTA and BFTA? Author/Editor: Adam, Antonis ; Kosma, Theodora ; McHugh, James Series: Working Paper No. 03/239 Date: December 1, 2003 Subject(s): Trade liberalization \| Europe \| Baltics \| International trade \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Trade liberalization \| gravity models \| stability pact \| CEFTA \| BFTA

Title: U.S. Investors' Emerging Market Equity Portfolios: A Security-Level Analysis Author/Editor: Edison, Hali J. ; Warnock, Francis E. Series: Working Paper No. 03/238 Date: December 1, 2003 Subject(s): Emerging markets \| United States \| Exchange risk \| Capital markets \| Investment \| Financial crisis Author's keyword(s): emerging markets \| portfolio choice \| home bias \| and international risk sharing

Title: Growth, Governance, and Fiscal Policy Transmission Channels in Low-Income Countries Author/Editor: Baldacci, Emanuele ; Hillman, Arye L. ; Kojo, Naoko C. Series: Working Paper No. 03/237 Date: December 1, 2003 Subject(s): Economic growth \| Low income developing countries \| Fiscal policy \| Governance Author's keyword(s): Growth \| governance \| fiscal policy \| low-income countries

Title: Cross-Border Listings, Capital Controls, and U.S. Equity Flows to Emerging Markets Author/Editor: Edison, Hali J. ; Warnock, Francis E. Series: Working Paper No. 03/236 Date: December 1, 2003 Subject(s): Capital controls \| Capital flows \| Emerging markets \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Portfolio equity flows \| capital flows \| emerging markets \| and ADRs

Title: From the Front lines at Seoul Bank: Restructuring and Reprivatization Author/Editor: Kang, Chungwon Series: Working Paper No. 03/235 Date: December 1, 2003 Subject(s): Bank restructuring \| Korea, Republic of \| Privatization \| Republic of Korea Author's keyword(s): Korea \| bank restructuring

Title: Do Active Labor Market Policies Increase Employment? Author/Editor: Estevão, Marcello M. Series: Working Paper No. 03/234 Date: December 1, 2003 Subject(s): Unemployment \| Employment \| Labor market policy \| Wages Author's keyword(s): Unemployment \| employment rate \| labor market policies \| wages \| bargaining

Title: Financial Globalization, Portfolio Diversification, and the Pattern of International Trade Author/Editor: Koren, Miklós Series: Working Paper No. 03/233 Date: December 1, 2003 Subject(s): Globalization \| International trade \| Markets \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Financial globalization \| trade volume \| trade structure \| incomplete markets \| portfolio choice

November 2003

Title: Social Impact of a Tax Reform: The Case of Ethiopia Author/Editor: Muñoz, Sònia ; Cho, Stanley Sang-Wook Series: Working Paper No. 03/232 Date: November 1, 2003 Subject(s): Poverty \| Ethiopia \| Tax reforms \| Value added tax \| Social policy Author's keyword(s): Poverty \| Incidence Analysis \| Value Added Tax \| Poverty-related expenditure

Title: Do IMF-Supported Programs Boost Private Capital Inflows? The Role of Program Size and Policy Adjustment Author/Editor: Benelli, Roberto Series: Working Paper No. 03/231 Date: November 1, 2003 Subject(s): Fund-supported adjustment programs \| Capital inflows \| Structural adjustment Author's keyword(s): Success of IMF Programs; policy adjustment under programs

Title: Output Response to Currency Crises Author/Editor: Gupta, Poonam ; Mishra, Deepak ; Sahay, Ratna Series: Working Paper No. 03/230 Date: November 1, 2003 Subject(s): Currencies \| Financial crisis \| Emerging markets \| Production \| Capital Inflows Author's keyword(s): Currency crises \| emerging markets \| output growth

Title: Free Trade Areas and Rules of Origin: Economics and Politics Author/Editor: Duttagupta, Rupa ; Panagariya, Arvind Series: Working Paper No. 03/229 Date: November 1, 2003 Subject(s): International trade \| Social policy \| Economic policy \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Rules of Origin \| FTA \| Welfare \| Political economy

Title: Why Does FDI Go Where it Goes? New Evidence from the Transition Economies Author/Editor: Campos, Nauro F. ; Kinoshita, Yuko Series: Working Paper No. 03/228 Date: November 1, 2003 Subject(s): Foreign investment \| Transition economies Author's keyword(s): Foreign direct investment \| transition economies

Title: How Useful are Benefit Incidence Analyses of Public Education and Health Spending Author/Editor: Davoodi, Hamid Reza ; Tiongson, Erwin ; Asawanuchit, Sawitree S. Series: Working Paper No. 03/227 Date: November 1, 2003 Subject(s): Government expenditures \| Developing countries \| Education \| Health care Author's keyword(s): benefit incidence \| public spending on education and health \| targeting \| progressivity

Title: Dynamic Depositor Discipline in U.S. Banks Author/Editor: Maechler, Andrea M. ; McDill, Kathleen Series: Working Paper No. 03/226 Date: November 1, 2003 Subject(s): Deposit insurance \| United States \| Banking systems \| Markets Author's keyword(s): Deposit Insurance \| Market Discipline \| Banking System

Title: Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy with Nominal and Indexed Debt Author/Editor: Cosimano, Thomas F. ; Gapen, Michael T. Series: Working Paper No. 03/225 Date: November 1, 2003 Subject(s): Monetary policy \| Debt \| Taxation \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Ramsey policy \| Optimal monetary policy \| Optimal taxation

Title: What Sustains Fiscal Consolidations in Emerging Market Countries? Author/Editor: Gupta, Sanjeev ; Baldacci, Emanuele ; Clements, Benedict J. ; Tiongson, Erwin Series: Working Paper No. 03/224 Date: November 1, 2003 Subject(s): Fiscal reforms \| Fiscal policy \| Emerging markets \| Structural adjustment Author's keyword(s): Fiscal adjustment \| fiscal consolidation \| survival analysis \| emerging markets

Title: Are Pegged and Intermediate Regimes More Crisis Prone? Author/Editor: Bubula, Andrea ; Ötker, Inci Series: Working Paper No. 03/223 Date: November 1, 2003 Subject(s): Exchange rate policy \| Exchange rate regimes \| Floating exchange rates \| Currency pegs Author's keyword(s): Bipolar view \| pegged regimes \| hard pegs \| soft pegs \| floats \| intermediate regimes \| currency crises \| exchange market pressure

Title: Company Pension Plans, Stock Market Returns, and Labor Demand Author/Editor: Detragiache, Enrica Series: Working Paper No. 03/222 Date: November 1, 2003 Subject(s): Pensions \| Netherlands \| Stock markets \| Labor market policy Author's keyword(s): Company pension plans \| labor demand \| pension regulation \| Netherlands

Title: Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises Author/Editor: Manasse, Paolo ; Roubini, Nouriel ; Schimmelpfennig, Axel Series: Working Paper No. 03/221 Date: November 1, 2003 Subject(s): Debt \| Financial crisis \| Liquidity Author's keyword(s): Early warning system \| sovereign debt crises \| sovereign default

Title: Fiscal Rules and Countercyclical Policy: Frank Ramsey Meets Gramm-Rudman-Hollings Author/Editor: Tanner, Evan Series: Working Paper No. 03/220 Date: November 1, 2003 Subject(s): Fiscal policy \| Government expenditures \| Borrowing \| Debt burden \| Budget deficits \| Tax reforms Author's keyword(s): Ramsey approach \| tax smoothing \| countercyclical policy \| primary deficit

Title: The Role of Supervisory Tools in Addressing Bank Borrowers' Currency Mismatches Author/Editor: Mar Cacha, Maria del ; Méndez Morales, Armando Series: Working Paper No. 03/219 Date: November 1, 2003 Subject(s): Bank supervision \| Credit \| Provisioning \| Financial sector \| Exchange restrictions \| Foreign currency deposit accounts Author's keyword(s): Prudential regulation \| currency mismatches \| provisions

Title: Greater Monetary Policy Transparency for the G3: Lessons from Full-Fledged Inflation Targeters Author/Editor: Stone, Mark R. Series: Working Paper No. 03/218 Date: November 1, 2003 Subject(s): Monetary policy \| United States \| Japan \| Euro area \| Transparency \| Inflation targeting Author's keyword(s): Monetary policy framework \| inflation targeting \| central bank

Title: Growth and Recovery in Mongolia During Transition Author/Editor: Cheng, Kevin C. Series: Working Paper No. 03/217 Date: November 1, 2003 Subject(s): Economic growth \| Mongolia \| Economic recovery \| Transition economies Author's keyword(s): transition \| growth accounting

Title: Social Incidence of the General Sales Tax in Pakistan Author/Editor: Refaqat, Saadia Series: Working Paper No. 03/216 Date: November 1, 2003 Subject(s): Taxation \| Pakistan \| Sales taxes Author's keyword(s): Taxation \| social incidence \| General Sales Tax \| Pakistan

Title: Understanding the Costs of Deflation in the Japanese Context Author/Editor: Baig, Taimur Series: Working Paper No. 03/215 Date: November 1, 2003 Subject(s): Deflation \| Japan \| Monetary policy \| Wages \| Financial sector Author's keyword(s): Deflation \| Monetary Policy \| Wage Rigidity \| Financial Sector

Title: Dynamics of Corporate Performance in Thailand Author/Editor: Haksar, V. ; Kongsamut, Piyabha Series: Working Paper No. 03/214 Date: November 1, 2003 Subject(s): Governance \| Thailand \| Private sector \| Debt \| Financial crisis Author's keyword(s): Corporate sector and governance \| Thailand \| debt \| financial crisis

Title: Early Birds, Late Risers, and Sleeping Beauties: Bank Credit Growth to the Private Sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans Author/Editor: Cottarelli, Carlo ; Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni ; Hollar, Ivanna Vladkova Series: Working Paper No. 03/213 Date: November 1, 2003 Subject(s): Credit expansion \| Central and Eastern Europe \| Albania \| Bosnia and Herzegovina \| Bulgaria \| Croatia \| Czech Republic \| Estonia \| Hungary \| Latvia \| Lithuania \| Macedonia, FYR \| Poland \| Romania \| Serbia and Montenegro \| Private sector \| Transition economies \| Privatization \| Liquidity \| Capital controls \| Credit ceilings \| Macedonia, former Yugoslav Republic of Author's keyword(s): Credit booms \| financial developments \| transition economies

Title: Modeling Inflation in Georgia Author/Editor: Maliszewski, Wojciech Series: Working Paper No. 03/212 Date: November 1, 2003 Subject(s): Inflation \| Georgia \| Transition economies \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Inflation \| Transition \| Georgia \| Cointegration

Title: Mauritius: Unemployment and the Role of Institutions Author/Editor: McDonald, Calvin A. ; Yao, James Y. Series: Working Paper No. 03/211 Date: November 1, 2003 Subject(s): Unemployment \| Mauritius \| Wages Author's keyword(s): Unemployment \| institutions \| wage

Title: China's Labor Market Performance and Challenges Author/Editor: Brooks, Ray ; Ran, Tao Series: Working Paper No. 03/210 Date: November 1, 2003 Subject(s): Labor markets \| China \| Unemployment \| Employment \| China, People's Republic of Author's keyword(s): China \| employment \| unemployment

October 2003

Title: Priorities for Further Fiscal Reforms in the Commonwealth of Independent States Author/Editor: Lorie, Henri Series: Working Paper No. 03/209 Date: October 1, 2003 Subject(s): Fiscal reforms \| Former Soviet Union \| Armenia \| Azerbaijan \| Belarus \| Georgia \| Kazakhstan \| Kyrgyz Republic \| Moldova \| Russian Federation \| Tajikistan \| Turkmenistan \| Ukraine \| Uzbekistan Author's keyword(s): Fiscal Reforms \| Former Soviet Union

Title: The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Monetary Policy During A Zero-Interest-Rate Period Author/Editor: Nagayasu, Jun Series: Working Paper No. 03/208 Date: October 1, 2003 Subject(s): Monetary policy \| Interest rates \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): key words

Title: Of Openess and Distance: Trade Developments in the Commonwealth of Independent States, 1993-2002 Author/Editor: Elborgh-Woytek, Katrin Series: Working Paper No. 03/207 Date: October 1, 2003 Subject(s): Trade \| Development \| Armenia \| Azerbaijan \| Georgia \| Kyrgyz Republic \| Moldova \| Tajikistan \| Uzbekistan Author's keyword(s): trade \| CIS

Title: The United States and the New Regionalism/ Bilateralism Author/Editor: Hilaire, Alvin ; Yang, Yongzheng Series: Working Paper No. 03/206 Date: October 1, 2003 Subject(s): Trade policy \| United States \| Trade liberalization Author's keyword(s): Integration \| regionalism \| free trade \| global trade analysis \| United States

Title: Financial Development in the CIS-7 Countries: Bridging the Great Divide Author/Editor: De Nicoló, Gianni ; Geadah, Sami ; Rozhkov, Dmitriy Series: Working Paper No. 03/205 Date: October 1, 2003 Subject(s): Financial systems \| Development \| Armenia \| Azerbaijan \| Georgia \| Kyrgyz Republic \| Moldova \| Tajikistan \| Uzbekistan \| Transition economies Author's keyword(s): Financial development \| transition economies

Title: Real and Distributive Effects of Petroleum Price Liberalization: The Case of Indonesia Author/Editor: Clements, Benedict J. ; Jung, Hong-Sang ; Gupta, Sanjeev Series: Working Paper No. 03/204 Date: October 1, 2003 Subject(s): Oil revenues \| Indonesia \| Government expenditures \| Prices \| Subsidies \| Poverty \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Public expenditure \| CGE \| petroleum prices \| subsidies \| poverty \| Indonesia

Title: Macro Effects of Corporate Restructuring in Japan Author/Editor: Kim, Se-Jik Series: Working Paper No. 03/203 Date: October 1, 2003 Subject(s): Labor \| Japan \| Productivity \| Private sector \| Capital Author's keyword(s): Corporate restructuring \| total factor productivity \| macro effects \| Japan

Title: Pricing Debit Card Payment Services: An IO Approach Author/Editor: Bolt, Wilko ; Tieman, Alexander F. Series: Working Paper No. 03/202 Date: October 1, 2003 Subject(s): Banking \| Price structures Author's keyword(s): Debit card payment systems \| two-sided monopolistic pricing \| social optimum

Title: Puttable and Extendible Bonds: Developing Interest Rate Derivatives for Emerging Markets Author/Editor: Neftci, Salih N. ; Santos, Andre Series: Working Paper No. 03/201 Date: October 1, 2003 Subject(s): Bonds \| Financial systems \| Interest rates \| Emerging markets Author's keyword(s): Fixed income securities \| option pricing theory \| financial markets

Title: The Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Output and Prices: Evidence from Developing Countries Author/Editor: Kandil, Magda E. ; Mirzaie, Ida Aghdas Series: Working Paper No. 03/200 Date: October 1, 2003 Subject(s): Real effective exchange rates \| Inflation \| Prices \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Exchange rate \| anticipated vs. unanticipated appreciation \| supply vs. demand channels \| real and inflationary effects

Title: Promoting Fiscal Transparency The Complementary Roles of the IMF, Financial Markets and Civil Society Author/Editor: Petrie, Murray Series: Working Paper No. 03/199 Date: October 1, 2003 Subject(s): Fiscal transparency \| Financial systems \| Markets \| Civil society Author's keyword(s): Fiscal Transparency

Title: Prudential Issues in Less Diversified Economies Author/Editor: Narain, Aditya ; Rabanal, Pau ; Byskov, Steen Series: Working Paper No. 03/198 Date: October 1, 2003 Subject(s): Economic conditions \| Credit \| Financial crisis \| Banking systems Author's keyword(s): Less Diversified Economies \| Credit Concentration Risks \| Capital Adequacy

Title: Dealing with Increased Risk of Natural Disasters: Challenges and Options Author/Editor: Freeman, Paul K. ; Keen, Michael ; Mani, Muthukumara Series: Working Paper No. 03/197 Date: October 1, 2003 Subject(s): Emergency assistance \| Developing countries Author's keyword(s): Natural Disaster \| Developing Countries

Title: Crisis Resolution: Next Steps Author/Editor: Eichengreen, Barry J. ; Kletzer, Kenneth ; Mody, Ashoka Series: Working Paper No. 03/196 Date: October 1, 2003 Subject(s): Debt restructuring \| Bonds \| Financial crisis \| Collective action clauses \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Debt Restructuring \| collective action \| aggregation \| transition

Title: Poverty and Social Impact Analysis-A Suggested Framework Author/Editor: Hossain, Shahabuddin Mosherraf Series: Working Paper No. 03/195 Date: October 1, 2003 Subject(s): Poverty \| Social policy \| Tax reforms \| Value added tax \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Poverty and social impact analysis \| incidence analysis \| computable general equilibrium models \| equivalent variation \| effective taxes \| linear expenditure system \| value added tax.

Title: The U.S. Dollar and the Trade Deficit: What Accounts for the Late 1990s? Author/Editor: Hunt, Ben ; Rebucci, Alessandro Series: Working Paper No. 03/194 Date: October 1, 2003 Subject(s): Trade policy \| United States \| Budget deficits \| Real effective exchange rates Author's keyword(s): Balassa-Samuelson Effect \| Learning \| Productivity Shocks \| Real Exchange Rate \| Risk Premium Shocks \| Trade Balance \| US Economy

September 2003

Title: Financial Deepening, Inequality, and Growth: A Model-Based Quantitative Evaluation Author/Editor: Townsend, Robert M. ; Ueda, Kenichi Series: Working Paper No. 03/193 Date: September 1, 2003 Subject(s): Economic growth \| Thailand \| Transition economies \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Financial Deepening \| inequality \| growth \| transitional dynamics

Title: Reputation, Debt, and Policy Conditionality Author/Editor: Ramcharan, Rodney Series: Working Paper No. 03/192 Date: September 1, 2003 Subject(s): Economic reform \| Conditionality \| Structural adjustment \| Lending commitments by Fund \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Economic reform \| IMF lending

Title: Who's in Charge? Ownership and Conditionality in IMF-Supported Programs Author/Editor: Boughton, James M. Series: Working Paper No. 03/191 Date: September 1, 2003 Subject(s): Fund-supported adjustment programs \| Conditionality Author's keyword(s): IMF \| Ownership \| Conditionality \| Macroeconomic Policy

Title: International Versus Domestic Auditing of Bank Solvency Author/Editor: Feltenstein, Andrew ; Lagunoff, Roger Dean Series: Working Paper No. 03/190 Date: September 1, 2003 Subject(s): International banking \| Bank supervision \| Government accounting Author's keyword(s): Bank Insolvency \| Auditing \| International Auditing

Title: Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development Author/Editor: Chami, Ralph ; Fullenkamp, Connel ; Jahjah, Samir Series: Working Paper No. 03/189 Date: September 1, 2003 Subject(s): Capital flows \| Economic growth \| Salary remittances Author's keyword(s): Remittances \| altruism \| asymmetric information \| private income transfers \| moral hazard \| economic growth

Title: Crisis in Competitive versus Monopolistic Banking Systems Author/Editor: Boyd, John H. ; De Nicoló, Gianni ; Smith, Bruce D. Series: Working Paper No. 03/188 Date: September 1, 2003 Subject(s): Banking systems \| Financial crisis \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Banking Crisis (Panic); Monetary General Equilibrium

Title: Fiscal Sustainability in African HIPC Countries: A Policy Dilemma? Author/Editor: Fedelino, Annalisa ; Kudina, Alina Series: Working Paper No. 03/187 Date: September 1, 2003 Subject(s): Debt relief \| HIPC Initiative \| Concessional aid Author's keyword(s): Debt Sustainability; HIPC Initiative; concessional financing

Title: FDI Spillovers, Financial Markets and Economic Development Author/Editor: Alfaro, Laura ; Chanda, Areendam ; Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem ; Sayek, Selin Series: Working Paper No. 03/186 Date: September 1, 2003 Subject(s): Economic growth \| Capital markets \| Foreign investment Author's keyword(s): Economic growth \| financial markets \| foreign direct investment

Title: The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly but Unevenly Author/Editor: Subramanian, Arvind ; Wei, Shang-Jin Series: Working Paper No. 03/185 Date: September 1, 2003 Subject(s): GATT \| World Trade Organization \| Trade \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): WTO \| GATT \| gravity \| special and differential treatment

Title: On The Determinants of First-Time Sovereign Bond Issues Author/Editor: Grigorian, David A. Series: Working Paper No. 03/184 Date: September 1, 2003 Subject(s): Access to capital markets \| Bond markets Author's keyword(s): Sovereign bonds \| first-time market access \| capital markets

Title: Monetary Policies for Developing Countries: The Role of Corruption Author/Editor: Huang, Haizhou ; Wei, Shang-Jin Series: Working Paper No. 03/183 Date: September 1, 2003 Subject(s): Corruption \| Fiscal policy \| Monetary policy \| Inflation targeting \| Currencies \| Dollarization \| Central bank role Author's keyword(s): Corruption \| fiscal policy \| monetary policy \| inflation targeting \| currency board \| dollarization \| conservative central banker

Title: The Fiscal Smile: The Effectiveness and Limits of Fiscal Stabilizers Author/Editor: Silgoner, Maria Antoinette ; Reitschuler, Gerhard ; Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesús Series: Working Paper No. 03/182 Date: September 1, 2003 Subject(s): Fiscal policy \| Business cycles \| Government expenditures \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Fiscal Stabilizers \| Business Cycle Volatility \| Nonlinearity

Title: Time-Varying Thresholds: An Application to Purchasing Power Parity Author/Editor: Leon, H. L. ; Najarian, Serineh Series: Working Paper No. 03/181 Date: September 1, 2003 Subject(s): Purchasing power parity \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Purchasing power parity \| time-varying thresholds \| asymmetry

Title: Capital Account Liberalization and Corporate Taxes Author/Editor: Lockwood, Ben ; Devereux, Michael B. ; Redoano, Michela Series: Working Paper No. 03/180 Date: September 1, 2003 Subject(s): Capital account liberalization \| Taxes \| Capital controls \| Corporate taxes Author's keyword(s): Capital Controls \| tax competition \| globalization

Title: Nominal Anchors in the CIS Author/Editor: Keller, Peter ; Richardson, Thomas J. Series: Working Paper No. 03/179 Date: September 1, 2003 Subject(s): Monetary policy \| Turkmenistan \| Belarus \| Azerbaijan \| Kazakhstan \| Kyrgyz Republic \| Russian Federation \| Ukraine \| Uzbekistan \| Armenia \| Georgia \| Moldova \| Tajikistan \| Exchange rates Author's keyword(s): Monetary Policy \| exchange rates \| nominal anchors

Title: Potential Output and Total Factor Productivity Growth in Post-Apartheid South Africa Author/Editor: Arora, Vivek B. ; Bhundia, Ashok Series: Working Paper No. 03/178 Date: September 1, 2003 Subject(s): Productivity \| South Africa Author's keyword(s): Potential output \| output gap \| total factor productivity \| South Africa

Title: Why do Emerging Economies Borrow in Foreign Currency? Author/Editor: Jeanne, Olivier Series: Working Paper No. 03/177 Date: September 1, 2003 Subject(s): Emerging markets \| Borrowing \| Dollarization Author's keyword(s): Foreign currency debt \| Liability Dollarization \| Monetary Credibility

Title: Foreign Aid and Revenue Response: Does the Composition of Aid Matter? Author/Editor: Gupta, Sanjeev ; Clements, Benedict J. ; Pivovarsky, Alexander ; Tiongson, Erwin Series: Working Paper No. 03/176 Date: September 1, 2003 Subject(s): Development assistance \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Foreign aid \| loans \| grants \| revenue

Title: Debt Relief, Additionality, and Aid Allocation in Low Income Countries Author/Editor: Powell, Robert Series: Working Paper No. 03/175 Date: September 1, 2003 Subject(s): Debt relief \| Development assistance \| Low income developing countries Author's keyword(s): Low income countries \| HIPCs \| debt relief \| additionality \| aid

Title: Reconciling Stability and Growth: Smart Pacts and Structural Reforms Author/Editor: Beetsma, Roel M. W. J. ; Debrun, Xavier Series: Working Paper No. 03/174 Date: September 1, 2003 Subject(s): Economic growth \| Monetary unions Author's keyword(s): Structural reforms \| stability and growth pact \| Monetary Union \| and Sanctions

Title: Reforming Tax Systems: Experience of the Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union Author/Editor: Stepanyan, Vahram Series: Working Paper No. 03/173 Date: September 1, 2003 Subject(s): Tax reforms \| Russian Federation \| Latvia \| Lithuania \| Estonia \| Armenia \| Azerbaijan \| Georgia \| Kazakhstan \| Kyrgyz Republic \| Moldova \| Ukraine \| Uzbekistan \| Tajikistan \| Tax systems \| Value added tax Author's keyword(s): Tax policy \| tax reforms

Title: The Persistence of Corruption and Regulatory Compliance Failures: Theory and Evidence Author/Editor: Damania, Richard ; Fredriksson, Per G. ; Mani, Muthukumara Series: Working Paper No. 03/172 Date: September 1, 2003 Subject(s): Corruption Author's keyword(s): Corruption \| rule of law \| lobbying \| political instability \| and bureaucracy

Title: Measuring Contagion with a Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient Model Author/Editor: Ciccarelli, Matteo ; Rebucci, Alessandro Series: Working Paper No. 03/171 Date: September 1, 2003 Subject(s): Economic models Author's keyword(s): Contagion \| Gibbs sampling \| Heteroskedasticity \| Omitted Variable Bias \| Time-Varying Coefficient Models

August 2003

Title: Estimating Indexes of Coincident and Leading Indicators: An Application to Jordan Author/Editor: Mongardini, Joannes ; Saadi-Sedik, Tahsin Series: Working Paper No. 03/170 Date: August 1, 2003 Subject(s): Economic indicators \| Jordan Author's keyword(s): Jordan \| coincident indicators \| leading indicators \| economy activity

Title: Economic Resilience with an Exchange Rate Peg: the Barbados Experience, 1985-2000 Author/Editor: Worrell, DeLisle ; Codrington, Harold ; Craigwell, Roland ; Greenidge, Kevin Series: Working Paper No. 03/168 Date: August 1, 2003 Subject(s): Currency pegs \| Barbados Author's keyword(s): Stabilization policy \| Exchange rate \| Caribbean

Title: Diamond Smuggling and Taxation in Sub-Saharan Africa Author/Editor: Oomes, Nienke ; Vocke, Matthias Series: Working Paper no. 03/167 Date: August 1, 2003 Subject(s): Mining sector \| Sub-Saharan Africa \| Taxation \| Tax evasion

Title: Does Trade Credit Substitute Bank Credit? Evidence from Firm-level Data Author/Editor: De Blasio, Guido Series: Working Paper no. 03/166 Date: August 1, 2003 Subject(s): Trade \| Credit \| Monetary policy \| Manufacturing Author's keyword(s): Trade Credit \| Monetary Policy \| Manufacturing Firms

Title: Social Returns to Education: Evidence from Italian Local Labor Market Areas Author/Editor: Dalmazzo, A. ; De Blasio, Guido Series: Working Paper No. 03/165 Date: August 1, 2003 Subject(s): Labor markets \| Italy \| Wages \| Education Author's keyword(s): Education \| Wages \| Human Capital

Title: The Wage-Price Spiral: Industrial Country Evidence and Implications Author/Editor: Kandil, Magda E. Series: Working Paper No. 03/164 Date: August 1, 2003 Subject(s): Wages \| Price controls \| Developed countries \| Labor markets \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Wage-Price Spiral \| Asymmetric Fluctuations \| Output-Effect \| Standard of Living

Title: Fiscal Transparency in EU Accession Countries: Progress and Future Challenges Author/Editor: Allan, William ; Parry, Taryn Series: Working Paper No. 03/163 Date: August 1, 2003 Subject(s): Fiscal transparency \| European Union Author's keyword(s): Fiscal Transparency \| EU Accession

Title: Fiscal Sustainability and Policy Issues in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union Author/Editor: Kufa, Phebby ; Pellechio, Anthony J. ; Rizavi, Saqib Series: Working Paper No. 03/162 Date: August 1, 2003 Subject(s): Fiscal reforms \| Eastern Caribbean Currency Union Author's keyword(s): Fiscal sustainability \| Currency Union

Title: Recovery Rates from Distressed Debt - Empirical Evidence from Chapter 11 Filings, International Litigation, and Recent Sovereign Debt Restructurings Author/Editor: Singh, Manmohan Series: Working Paper No. 03/161 Date: August 1, 2003 Subject(s): Debt \| Emerging markets \| Debt restructuring Author's keyword(s): Distressed debt \| Sovereign debt restructuring \| Chapter 11 \| Sovereign litigation

Title: Exchange Rate Regime Choice in Historical Perspective Author/Editor: Bordo, Michael D. Series: Working Paper No. 03/160 Date: August 1, 2003 Subject(s): Exchange rate regimes \| Emerging markets \| Floating exchange rates Author's keyword(s): Gold Standard \| Bretton Woods system \| exchange rate regime

Title: What Would a Development-Friendly WTO Architecture Really Look Like? Author/Editor: Mattoo, Aaditya ; Subramanian, Arvind Series: Working Paper No. 03/153 Date: August 1, 2003 Subject(s): World Trade Organization \| Development \| Labor mobility Author's keyword(s): WTO \| architecture \| development \| labor mobility

July 2003

Title: Asymmetric Adjustment and Nonlinear Dynamics in Real Exchange Rates Author/Editor: Leon, H. L. ; Najarian, Serineh Series: Working Paper No. 03/159 Date: July 1, 2003 Subject(s): Real effective exchange rates \| Purchasing power parity \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Nonlinearities \| real exchange rates \| asymmetry

Title: Bank Consolidation, Internationalization and Conglomeration: Trends and Implications for Financial Risk Author/Editor: De Nicoló, Gianni ; Bartholomew, Philip F. ; Zaman, Jahanara ; Zephirin, M. G. Series: Working Paper No. 03/158 Date: July 1, 2003 Subject(s): Banking \| Banking systems \| Financial risk Author's keyword(s): Bank Consolidation \| Internationalization \| Conglomeration \| Financial Risk

Title: Hierarchy and Authority in a Dynamic Perspective: A Model Applied to Donor Financing of NGO Proposals Author/Editor: Yontcheva, Boriana Series: Working Paper No. 03/157 Date: July 1, 2003 Subject(s): Development assistance \| Public enterprises \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Hierarchies \| strategic delegation \| development aid \| NGOs \| dynamic games \| principal-agent issues

Title: Singapore, Inc. Versus the Private Sector: Are Government-Linked Companies Different? Author/Editor: Ramírez, Carlos D. ; Tan, Ling Hui Series: Working Paper No. 03/156 Date: July 1, 2003 Subject(s): Private sector \| Singapore \| Public enterprises Author's keyword(s): public enterprises \| corporate finance

Title: Fiscal Policy in Nigeria: Any Role for Rules? Author/Editor: Baunsgaard, Thomas Series: Working Paper No. 03/155 Date: July 1, 2003 Subject(s): Fiscal policy \| Nigeria \| Oil revenues \| Oil producing countries Author's keyword(s): Fiscal policy rules; oil-producing countries \| nonrenewable resources \| Nigeria

Title: Does Productivity Growth Lead to Appreciation of the Real Exchange Rate? Author/Editor: Lee, Jaewoo ; Tang, Man-Keung Series: Working Paper No. 03/154 Date: July 1, 2003 Subject(s): Productivity \| Real effective exchange rates \| Prices \| Labor Author's keyword(s): Real exchange rate \| nontradable services \| productivity

Title: Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Elements of Best Practice Author/Editor: Canales Kriljenko, Jorge Iván ; Guimarães, Roberto Pereira ; Karacadag, Cem Series: Working Paper No. 03/152 Date: July 1, 2003 Subject(s): Foreign exchange \| Intervention \| Exchange rate policy

Title: Sticky Inflation and the Real Effects of Exchange Rate Based Stabilization Author/Editor: Celasun, Oya Series: Working Paper No. 03/151 Date: July 1, 2003 Subject(s): Inflation \| Mexico \| Turkey \| Exchange rate stability Author's keyword(s): Disinflation \| Inflation Persistence \| Credibility \| Mexico \| Turkey

Title: The Performance of Indian Banks During Financial Liberalization Author/Editor: Koeva Brooks, Petya Series: Working Paper No. 03/150 Date: July 1, 2003 Subject(s): Financial sector \| India \| Trade liberalization \| Banking systems Author's keyword(s): Financial liberalization \| banking sector

Title: The Cost Channel of Monetary Policy: Further Evidence for the United States and the Euro Area Author/Editor: Rabanal, Pau Series: Working Paper No. 03/149 Date: July 1, 2003 Subject(s): Monetary policy \| United States \| Euro area \| Inflation \| Wages \| Prices \| Interest rates \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Price-Puzzle \| New Keynesian Models \| Bayesian Methods \| United States \| Euro Area

Title: The Role of Information in Driving FDI Flows: Host-Country Transparency and Source-Country Specialization Author/Editor: Mody, Ashoka ; Razin, Assaf ; Sadka, Efraim Series: Working Paper No. 03/148 Date: July 1, 2003 Subject(s): Foreign investment \| Capital \| Transparency \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Foreign direct investment \| intangible capital \| transparency

Title: Exits From Pegged Regimes: An Empirical Analysis Author/Editor: Duttagupta, Rupa ; Ötker, Inci Series: Working Paper No. 03/147 Date: July 1, 2003 Subject(s): Exchange rate policy \| Exchange rate regimes \| Floating exchange rates \| Currency pegs Author's keyword(s): Pegged Exchange rates \| floating regimes \| determinants of exits \| currency crises

Title: Dollarization of the Banking System: Good or Bad? Author/Editor: De Nicoló, Gianni ; Honohan, Patrick ; Ize, Alain Series: Working Paper No. 03/146 Date: July 1, 2003 Subject(s): Dollarization \| Banking systems \| Financial sector Author's keyword(s): Dollarization \| Financial Deepening \| Financial Instability

Title: Assessing Fiscal Sustainability: A Cross Country Comparison Author/Editor: Croce, Enzo ; Juan-Ramon, V. Hugo Series: Working Paper No. 03/145 Date: July 1, 2003 Subject(s): Fiscal policy \| Economic growth \| Interest rates Author's keyword(s): Fiscal sustainability \| convergence \| fiscal rule

Title: A Political Agency Theory of Central Bank Independence Author/Editor: Eggertsson, Gauti B. ; Le Borgne, Eric Series: Working Paper No. 03/144 Date: July 1, 2003 Subject(s): Central bank role \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Central Bank Independence \| Career Concerns \| Elections \| Experimentation

Title: The Response of the Current Account to Terms of Trade Shocks: Persistence Matters Author/Editor: Kent, Christopher J. ; Cashin, Paul Series: Working Paper No. 03/143 Date: July 1, 2003 Subject(s): Current account \| Terms of trade Author's keyword(s): Current accounts \| terms of trade shocks

Title: The Efficiency of the Japanese Equity Market Author/Editor: Nagayasu, Jun Series: Working Paper No. 03/142 Date: July 1, 2003 Subject(s): Stock markets \| Japan \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Nikkei 225 \| Afrima \| Arfina-Figarch

Title: Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Brazil Author/Editor: Belaisch, Agnes Series: Working Paper No. 03/141 Date: July 1, 2003 Subject(s): Exchange rates \| Brazil \| Inflation \| Inflation targeting Author's keyword(s): Pass-through \| exchange rate \| inflation \| inflation targeting \| VAR \| Brazil

Title: Trade Elasticities and Market Expectations in Brazil Author/Editor: Paiva, Claudio Series: Working Paper No. 03/140 Date: July 1, 2003 Subject(s): Trade \| Brazil \| Exchange rates \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Trade \| elasticities \| exchange rate \| cointegration models

Title: Addressing the Natural Resource Curse: An Illustration from Nigeria Author/Editor: Sala-i-Martin, Xavier ; Subramanian, Arvind Series: Working Paper No. 03/139 Date: July 1, 2003 Subject(s): Oil \| Nigeria \| Oil revenues \| Economic growth \| Natural resources Author's keyword(s): Natural Resources \| oil \| Nigeria \| institutions \| growth

Title: Insurance and Issues in Financial Soundness Author/Editor: Das, Udaibir S. ; Davies, Nigel ; Podpiera, Richard Series: Working Paper No. 03/138 Date: July 1, 2003 Subject(s): Insurance \| Financial stability \| Financial soundness indicators Author's keyword(s): Insurance \| financial stability \| soundness indicators

June 2003

Title: From Program To Performance Budgeting: The Challenge For Emerging Economies Author/Editor: Diamond, Jack Series: Working Paper no. 03/169 Date: June 1, 2003 Subject(s): Emerging markets \| Budgeting Author's keyword(s): Program budgeting \| performance budgeting \| budget reform

Title: Exchange Rate Regime Considerations for Jordan and Lebanon Author/Editor: Bhattacharya, Rina Series: Working Paper No. 03/137 Date: June 1, 2003 Subject(s): Exchange rate regimes \| Jordan \| Lebanon \| Currency pegs Author's keyword(s): exchange rate regime \| optimum currency area \| nominal anchor

Title: Enterprise Restructuring and Transition: Evidence from the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Author/Editor: Zalduendo, Juan Series: Working Paper No. 03/136 Date: June 1, 2003 Subject(s): Privatization \| Macedonia, FYR \| Transition economies \| Macedonia, former Yugoslav Republic of Author's keyword(s): Enterprise restructuring \| corporate performance \| ownership concentration \| transition economies

Title: Central Bank Foreign Exchange Market Intervention and Option Contract Specification: The Case of Colombia Author/Editor: Mandeng, Ousmène Series: Working Paper No. 03/135 Date: June 1, 2003 Subject(s): Exchange markets \| Colombia \| Central banks \| Intervention Author's keyword(s): Options \| Colombia

Title: Sovereign Bond Restructuring: Collective Action Clauses and Official Crisis Intervention Author/Editor: Kletzer, Kenneth Series: Working Paper No. 03/134 Date: June 1, 2003 Subject(s): Bonds \| Debt restructuring \| Collective action clauses Author's keyword(s): Sovereign debt \| international financial architecture \| collective action clauses

Title: The Distributional Consequences of Real Exchange Rate Adjustment Author/Editor: Klyuev, Vladimir Series: Working Paper No. 03/133 Date: June 1, 2003 Subject(s): Real effective exchange rates \| Prices \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Real exchange rate \| political economy

Title: Is Transparency Good for You, and Can the IMF Help? Author/Editor: Glennerster, Rachel ; Shin, Yongseok Series: Working Paper No. 03/132 Date: June 1, 2003 Subject(s): Transparency \| Fund role \| Article IV consultations \| Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes \| Special Data Dissemination Standard \| Emerging markets \| Capital markets Author's keyword(s): Transparency \| publication \| institutions \| emerging markets \| sovereign spreads \| IMF \| SDDS \| ROSC \| Article IV \| GARCH

Title: Predictive Ability of Asymmetric Volatility Models at Medium-Term Horizons Author/Editor: Kisinbay, Turgut Series: Working Paper No. 03/131 Date: June 1, 2003 Subject(s): Capital markets \| Forecasting models Author's keyword(s): GARCH \| high-frequency data \| realized volatility \| integrated volatility \| and asymmetric volatility

Title: Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Romania Author/Editor: Gueorguiev, Nikolay Series: Working Paper No. 03/130 Date: June 1, 2003 Subject(s): Exchange rates \| Romania \| Inflation \| Monetary policy \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Romania \| pass-through \| VAR \| inflation \| distribution chain

Title: Does Inflation Targeting Matter? Author/Editor: Ball, Laurence M. ; Sheridan, Niamh Series: Working Paper No. 03/129 Date: June 1, 2003 Subject(s): Inflation targeting \| Economic conditions Author's keyword(s): Inflation Targeting Regimes

Title: Capital Operating Time and Total Factor Productivity Growth in France Author/Editor: Everaert, Luc ; Nadal-De Simone, Francisco Series: Working Paper No. 03/128 Date: June 1, 2003 Subject(s): Capital \| France \| Productivity \| Labor \| Economic growth Author's keyword(s): Capital stock utilization \| total factor productivity \| labor organization

Title: Trade Credit and the Effect of Macro-Financial Shocks: Evidence from U.S. Panel Data Author/Editor: Choi, Woon Gyu ; Kim, Yungsan Series: Working Paper No. 03/127 Date: June 1, 2003 Subject(s): Trade \| United States \| Credit \| Financial crisis \| Monetary policy \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Trade credit \| accounts payable \| accounts receivable \| monetary policy \| credit channel \| panel data

Title: Determinants of Inflation in a Transition Economy: the Case of Ukraine Author/Editor: Lissovolik, Bogdan Series: Working Paper No. 03/126 Date: June 1, 2003 Subject(s): Inflation \| Ukraine \| Transition economies \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Inflation \| transition \| Ukraine \| cointegration

Title: Modeling Stochastic Volatility with Application to Stock Returns Author/Editor: Krichene, Noureddine Series: Working Paper No. 03/125 Date: June 1, 2003 Subject(s): Stock markets \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): data augmentation \| diagnostics \| integration sampler \| Kalman filter \| Markov chain \| Monte Carlo \| particle filtering \| stochastic volatility

Title: Trade Liberalization and Real Exchange Rate Movement Author/Editor: Li, Xiangming Series: Working Paper No. 03/124 Date: June 1, 2003 Subject(s): Trade liberalization \| Real effective exchange rates Author's keyword(s): Trade Liberalization \| Real exchange rate

Title: An Empirical Reassessment of the Relationship Between Finance and Growth Author/Editor: Favarra, Giovanni Series: Working Paper No. 03/123 Date: June 1, 2003 Subject(s): Development \| Economic growth \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Financial development \| economic growth \| panel methods

Title: Rating the Rating Agencies: Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises Author/Editor: Sy, Amadou N. R. Series: Working Paper No. 03/122 Date: June 1, 2003 Subject(s): Debt \| Financial crisis \| Bonds Author's keyword(s): Crises \| default \| distress \| early warning systems \| probability of default \| ratings

Title: Responsibility of Central Banks for Stability in Financial Markets Author/Editor: Schinasi, Garry J. Series: Working Paper No. 03/121 Date: June 1, 2003 Subject(s): Central banks \| Capital markets \| Financial crisis Author's keyword(s): Financial stability \| central banking \| financial crises management

Title: Changes in Inventories in the National Accounts Author/Editor: Shrestha, Manik L. ; Fassler, Segismundo Series: Working Paper No. 03/120 Date: June 1, 2003 Subject(s): National accounts Author's keyword(s): National accounts \| inventories \| holding gains

Title: The Millennium Development Goals, Capacity Building, and the Role of the IMF Author/Editor: Hakura, Dalia ; Nsouli, Saleh M. Series: Working Paper No. 03/119 Date: June 1, 2003 Subject(s): Development \| Fund role \| UN \| Economic growth Author's keyword(s): Millennium Development Goals \| Capacity Building \| International Monetary Fund \| Economic Growth

Title: Welfare Implications of HIV/AIDS Author/Editor: Crafts, N. F. R. ; Haacker, Markus Series: Working Paper No. 03/118 Date: June 1, 2003 Subject(s): Economic policy \| Africa \| Social policy \| Income distribution \| Health care Author's keyword(s): Welfare \| HIV/AIDS \| value of statistical life \| Africa

Title: Corporate Balance Sheet Restructuring and Investment in the Euro Area Author/Editor: Jaeger, Albert Series: Working Paper No. 03/117 Date: June 1, 2003 Subject(s): External financing \| Euro Area \| Investment \| Business cycles \| Forecasting models Author's keyword(s): Corporate investment and financing \| business cycle \| forecasting

Title: Managing Risks in Financial Market Development: The Role of Sequencing Author/Editor: Karacadag, Cem ; Sundararajan, Vasudevan ; Elliott, Jennifer A. Series: Working Paper No. 03/116 Date: June 1, 2003 Subject(s): Financial systems \| Capital markets \| Capital account liberalization \| Financial risk Author's keyword(s): Financial markets \| capital markets \| capital account liberalization \| sequencing

Title: An Intraday Pricing Model of Foreign Exchange Markets Author/Editor: Romeu, Rafael Series: Working Paper No. 03/115 Date: June 1, 2003 Subject(s): Pricing policy \| Foreign exchange \| Markets \| Liquidity \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Foreign Exchange \| Microstructure \| International Macroeconomics

Title: Bank Risk-Taking and Competition Revisited Author/Editor: Boyd, John H. ; De Nicoló, Gianni Series: Working Paper No. 03/114 Date: June 1, 2003 Subject(s): Banking \| Competition \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Bank risk-shifting \| competition

Title: Do Brazilian Banks Compete? Author/Editor: Belaisch, Agnes Series: Working Paper No. 03/113 Date: June 1, 2003 Subject(s): Financial Intermediation \| Brazil \| Interest rates \| Emerging markets \| Banks Author's keyword(s): Financial Intermediation \| Interest rates \| Market structure \| Competition \| Brazil

May 2003

Title: Retail Bank Interest Rate Pass-Through: Is Chile Atypical? Author/Editor: Espinosa-Vega, Marco ; Rebucci, Alessandro Series: Working Paper No. 03/112 Date: May 1, 2003 Subject(s): Commercial banks \| Chile \| Interest rates \| Central banks Author's keyword(s): Words

Title: Nonlinear Exchange Rate Models: A Selective Overview Author/Editor: Sarno, Lucio Series: Working Paper No. 03/111 Date: May 1, 2003 Subject(s): Exchange rates \| Purchasing power parity \| Forecasting models Author's keyword(s): Exchange rate \| purchasing power parity \| forecasting \| nonlinearity

Title: Measuring the Impact of Distortions in Agricultural Trade in Partial and General Equilibrium Author/Editor: Tokarick, Stephen Series: Working Paper No. 03/110 Date: May 1, 2003 Subject(s): Agricultural subsidies \| Trade restrictions \| Tariffs \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Agricultural Trade \| Tariffs \| Subsidies \| Models

Title: Stock Markets and Real Exchange Rate: An Intertemporal Approach Author/Editor: Mercereau, Benoît Series: Working paper No. 03/109 Date: May 1, 2003 Subject(s): Real effective exchange rates \| Stock markets \| Risk premium \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Exchange rate \| stock markets \| risky assets \| Balassa-Samuelson effect

Title: The Role of Stock Markets in Current Account Dynamics: Evidence from the United States Author/Editor: Mercereau, Benoît Series: Working Paper No. 03/108 Date: May 1, 2003 Subject(s): Stock markets \| United States \| Current account \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Current account \| stock markets \| fundamental equation \| U.S. data \| forecasting

Title: The Corporation of Foreign Bondholders Author/Editor: Mauro, Paolo ; Yafeh, Yishay Series: Working Paper No. 03/107 Date: May 1, 2003 Subject(s): Bonds Author's keyword(s): Foreign bondholders \| bond finance \| creditor coordination

Title: Anticipating Credit Events Using Credit Default Swaps, with an Application to Sovereign Debt Crises Author/Editor: Chan-Lau, Jorge A. Series: Working Paper No. 03/106 Date: May 1, 2003 Subject(s): Credit \| Financial crisis Author's keyword(s): Credit defaults swaps \| maximum recovery rate \| default probability \| sovereign risk

Title: Overshooting and Dollarization in the Democratic Republic of the Congo Author/Editor: Beaugrand, Philippe Series: Working Paper No. 03/105 Date: May 1, 2003 Subject(s): Dollarization \| Congo, Democratic Republic of the \| Exchange rates \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Overshooting \| Dollarization \| Congo \| Democratic Republic of \| Zaire

Title: Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Malawi Author/Editor: Mathisen, Johan Series: Working Paper No. 03/104 Date: May 1, 2003 Subject(s): Real effective exchange rates \| Malawi \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Malawi \| Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate

Title: Armenia: The Road to Sustained Rapid Growth-Cross-Country Evidence Author/Editor: Iradian, Garbis Series: Working Paper No. 03/103 Date: May 1, 2003 Subject(s): Economic growth \| Armenia \| Financial intermediation \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Armenia \| economic growth \| financial intermediation

Title: Bayesian VARs: A Survey of the Recent Literature with an Application to the European Monetary System Author/Editor: Ciccarelli, Matteo ; Rebucci, Alessandro Series: Working Paper No. 03/102 Date: May 1, 2003 Subject(s): Economic models \| European Monetary System Author's keyword(s): Bayesian VAR \| Gibbs sampling \| Time-Varying Reaction Function \| EMS

Title: Emerging Issues in Banking Regulation Author/Editor: Chami, Ralph ; Khan, Mohsin S. ; Sharma, Sunil Series: Working Paper No. 03/101 Date: May 1, 2003 Subject(s): Banking \| Bank regulations \| Bank supervision Author's keyword(s): Banking \| regulation \| Basel standards

Title: Catalyzing Capital Flows: Do IMF-Supported Programs Work as Commitment Devices? Author/Editor: Mody, Ashoka ; Saravia, Diego Series: Working Paper No. 03/100 Date: May 1, 2003 Subject(s): Capital flows \| Fund-supported adjustment programs \| Access to capital markets Author's keyword(s): IMF programs \| signaling \| capital market access

Title: Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Australian Dollar: Has it Mattered? Author/Editor: Edison, Hali J. ; Cashin, Paul ; Liang, Hong Series: Working Paper No. 03/99 Date: May 1, 2003 Subject(s): Foreign exchange \| Australia \| Intervention \| Australian dollar \| Exchange rate stability Author's keyword(s): Foreign exchange intervention \| exchange rate volatility \| GARCH modeling

Title: IMF Conditionality and Program Ownership: A Case for Streamlined Conditionality Author/Editor: Erbas, S. Nuri Series: Working Paper No. 03/98 Date: May 1, 2003 Subject(s): Fund-supported adjustment programs \| Conditionality \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Program Conditionality and ownership \| uncertainty \| ambiguity

Title: Regional Convergence and the Role of Federal Transfers in Canada Author/Editor: Kaufman, Martin David ; Swagel, Phillip ; Dunaway, Steven Vincent Series: Working Paper No. 03/97 Date: May 1, 2003 Subject(s): Insurance \| Canada \| Employment \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Canada \| regional convergence \| federal transfers \| migration

Title: Network Externalities and Dollarization Hysteresis: The Case of Russia Author/Editor: Oomes, Nienke Series: Working Paper No. 03/96 Date: May 1, 2003 Subject(s): Dollarization \| Russian Federation \| Currency substitution \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Dollarization \| currency substitution \| ratchet effect \| network externalities \| Russia

Title: Foreign Exchange Intervention in Developing and Transition Economies: Results of a Survey Author/Editor: Canales Kriljenko, Jorge Iván Series: Working Paper No. 03/95 Date: May 1, 2003 Subject(s): Exchange markets \| Intervention \| Exchange restrictions \| Exchange rate stability Author's keyword(s): Foreign exchange intervention \| foreign exchange market microstructure \| foreign exchange net open positions

Title: Cross-Country and Cross-Sector Analysis of Transparency of Monetary and Financial Policies Author/Editor: Sundararajan, Vasudevan ; Das, Udaibir S. ; Yossifov, Plamen Series: Working Paper No. 03/94 Date: May 1, 2003 Subject(s): Transparency \| Standards and codes Author's keyword(s): Transparency \| international financial architecture \| standards and codes

Title: The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in a Commodity Exporting Country: The Case of Russia Author/Editor: Spatafora, Nikola ; Stavrev, Emil Series: Working Paper No. 03/93 Date: May 1, 2003 Subject(s): Real effective exchange rates \| Russian Federation Author's keyword(s): Real Exchange Rate \| Russia

Title: Pick Your Poison: The Exchange Rate Regime and Capital Account Volatility in Emerging Markets Author/Editor: Iwata, Shigeru ; Tanner, Evan Series: Working Paper No. 03/92 Date: May 1, 2003 Subject(s): Exchange rate regimes \| Brazil \| Mexico \| Turkey \| Capital account \| Emerging markets \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Exchange rate regime \| capital account \| structural vector autoregression

April 2003

Title: The ECB's Inflation Objective Author/Editor: Kieler, Mads Series: Working Paper No. 03/91 Date: April 1, 2003 Subject(s): European Central Bank \| Inflation \| Price stabilization \| Monetary policy \| European Economic and Monetary Union Author's keyword(s): Price Stability \| Monetary Policy \| European Monetary Union \| ECB

Title: Reforming Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations in Argentina Author/Editor: Cuevas, Alfredo Series: Working Paper No. 03/90 Date: April 1, 2003 Subject(s): Intergovernmental fiscal relations \| Argentina \| Revenues Author's keyword(s): Fiscal federalism \| revenue-sharing \| provinces \| subnational \| Argentina

Title: Argentina: Macroeconomic Crisis and Household Vulnerability Author/Editor: Corbacho, Ana ; Garcia-Escribano, Mercedes ; Inchauste, Gabriela Series: Working Paper No. 03/89 Date: April 1, 2003 Subject(s): Financial crisis \| Argentina \| Employment \| Government expenditures Author's keyword(s): Argentina \| macroeconomic crisis \| household welfare

Title: Budget Support versus Project Aid Author/Editor: Cordella, Tito ; Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni Series: Working Paper No. 03/88 Date: April 1, 2003 Subject(s): Conditionality \| Budgets \| Development assistance \| Economic growth \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Aid policy \| conditionality \| asymmetric information \| empirical growth models

Title: Pricing Policies and Inflation Inertia Author/Editor: Céspedes, Luis Felipe ; Kumhof, Michael ; Parrado, Eric Series: Working Paper No. 03/87 Date: April 1, 2003 Subject(s): Pricing policy \| Inflation \| Disinflation \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Inflation inertia \| disinflation \| pricing policies

Title: International Financial Integration Author/Editor: Lane, Philip R. ; Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria Series: Working Paper No. 03/86 Date: April 1, 2003 Subject(s): International financial system \| Financial assets \| Investment Author's keyword(s): International investment position \| rates of return

Title: Regional Impact of Cote d'Ivoire's Sociopolitical Crisis: An Assessment Author/Editor: Dore, Ousmane ; Anne, Benoít ; Engmann, Dorothy Series: Working Paper No. 03/85 Date: April 1, 2003 Subject(s): Economic conditions \| Cote d'Ivoire \| Economic growth \| Economic models \| West African Economic and Monetary Union \| Côte d'Ivoire Author's keyword(s): Regional integration \| contagion \| economic growth \| regressions

Title: Unanticipated Shocks and Systemic Influences: The Impact of Contagion in Global Equity Markets in 1998 Author/Editor: Dungey, Mardi ; Fry, Renee ; González-Hermosillo, Brenda ; Martin, Vance Series: Working Paper No. 03/84 Date: April 1, 2003 Subject(s): Financial crisis \| Russian Federation \| Capital \| Bond markets Author's keyword(s): Financial Crises \| Contagion \| International Spillovers \| Russia \| LTCM \| Equity Markets

Title: Gender-Responsive Government Budgeting Author/Editor: Sarraf, Feridoun Series: Working Paper No. 03/83 Date: April 1, 2003 Subject(s): Gender equality \| Government expenditures \| Budgetary policy Author's keyword(s): Government Budgeting \| Gender Mainstreaming \| Gender Equality

Title: The ECB's Money Pillar: An Assessment Author/Editor: Jaeger, Albert Series: Working Paper No. 03/82 Date: April 1, 2003 Subject(s): European Central Bank \| Monetary policy \| Inflation \| Price stabilization Author's keyword(s): Monetary policy \| central banks and their policies.

Title: Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization Author/Editor: Imbs, Jean Series: Working Paper No. 03/81 Date: April 1, 2003 Subject(s): International trade \| Business cycles \| Financial sector \| Currency boards Author's keyword(s): Trade \| specialization \| financial openness \| international business cycle \| optimal currency area

Title: Fatal Attraction: A New Measure of Contagion Author/Editor: Bayoumi, Tamim ; Fazio, Giorgio ; Kumar, Manmohan S. ; MacDonald, Ronald Series: Working Paper No. 03/80 Date: April 1, 2003 Subject(s): International capital markets \| Capital flows \| Emerging markets \| Stock markets Author's keyword(s): Contagion \| capital flows \| emerging market crises

Title: Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainity Author/Editor: Barnhill, Theodore M. ; Kopits, George Series: Working Paper No. 03/79 Date: April 1, 2003 Subject(s): Fiscal policy \| Risk premium \| Financial crisis \| Emerging markets Author's keyword(s): Fiscal policy \| value-at-risk analysis \| vulnerability to crises

Title: Do Fixed Exchange Rates Induce More Fiscal Discipline? Author/Editor: Sun, Yan Series: Working Paper No. 03/78 Date: April 1, 2003 Subject(s): Exchange rate regimes \| Fiscal policy \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Fiscal Discipline \| Exchange Rate Regimes

Title: Deflation in Hong Kong SAR Author/Editor: Schellekens, Philip Series: Working Paper No. 03/77 Date: April 1, 2003 Subject(s): Deflation \| Hong Kong SAR \| Price stabilization \| Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China Author's keyword(s): Deflation \| Price Equalization

Title: Re-Establishing Credible Nominal Anchors After a Financial Crisis: A Review of Recent Experience Author/Editor: Berg, Andrew ; Jarvis, Christopher J. ; Stone, Mark R. ; Zanello, Alessandro Series: Working Paper No. 03/76 Date: April 1, 2003 Subject(s): Financial crisis \| Monetary policy \| Floating exchange rates \| Exchange rate regimes Author's keyword(s): Financial Crisis \| monetary policy \| nominal anchor

Title: Job-Specific Investment and the Cost of Dismissal Restrictions--The Case of Portugal Author/Editor: Takizawa, H. Series: Working Paper No. 03/75 Date: April 1, 2003 Subject(s): Labor market policy \| Portugal \| Labor productivity \| Consumption \| Investment \| Budget estimates \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Dismissal restrictions \| worker mobility \| job-specific investment \| and welfare

Title: The Link Between Adherence to International Standards of Good Practice, Foreign Exchange Spreads, and Ratings Author/Editor: Christofides, Charalambos ; Mulder, Christian B. ; Tiffin, Andrew Series: Working Paper No. 03/74 Date: April 1, 2003 Subject(s): Standards and codes \| Foreign exchange \| Credit \| Crisis prevention \| Emerging markets \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Standards and codes \| foreign exchange spreads \| credit ratings \| crisis prevention

Title: On the Heterogeneity Bias of Pooled Estimators in Stationary VAR Specifications Author/Editor: Rebucci, Alessandro Series: Working Paper No. 03/73 Date: April 1, 2003 Subject(s): Economic models \| Exchange risk Author's keyword(s): Dynamics Panel Data Models \| Monte Carlo Simulation \| Heterogeneity Bias \| VARs

Title: Macroeconomic Performance and Poverty Reduction Author/Editor: Epaulard, Anne Series: Working Paper No. 03/72 Date: April 1, 2003 Subject(s): Economic growth \| Poverty \| Income distribution Author's keyword(s): Poverty \| Growth \| Macroeconomic Policies \| Income Distribution

Title: The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Bilateral Exchange Rate: Chile versus the United States Author/Editor: Zettelmeyer, Jeromin Series: Working Paper No. 03/71 Date: April 1, 2003 Subject(s): Monetary policy \| Interest rates \| Exchange rates \| Chile \| United States Author's keyword(s): Monetary Policy \| Interest Rates \| Exchange Rates

Title: Financial Reform: What Shakes It? What Shapes It? Author/Editor: Abiad, Abdul ; Mody, Ashoka Series: Working Paper No. 03/70 Date: April 1, 2003 Subject(s): Economic reform \| Financial sector Author's keyword(s): Financial reform \| political economy \| status quo bias

Title: The New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD): Opportunities and Challenges Author/Editor: Funke, Norbert ; Nsouli, Saleh M. Series: Working Paper No. 03/69 Date: April 1, 2003 Subject(s): Africa \| Development \| Poverty reduction \| Capital flows Author's keyword(s): NEPAD \| Africa \| Integration

Title: PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate Author/Editor: Imbs, Jean ; Mumtaz, Haroon ; Ravn, Morten O. ; Rey, Helene Series: Working Paper No. 03/68 Date: April 1, 2003 Subject(s): Purchasing power parity \| Exchange rates \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Real exchange rate persistence \| purchasing power parity \| aggregation \| parameter heterogeneity

Title: The Dynamics of Real Interest Rates, Real Exchange Rates and the Balance of Payments in China: 1980-2002 Author/Editor: Jin, Zhongxia Series: Working Paper No. 03/67 Date: April 1, 2003 Subject(s): Real interest rates \| China \| Exchange rates \| Balance of payments \| Economic models \| China, People's Republic of Author's keyword(s): Interest Rates \| Exchange Rates \| China

Title: The GCC Monetary Union: Some Considerations for the Exchange Rate Regime Author/Editor: Abed, George T. ; Erbas, S. Nuri ; Guerami, Behrouz Series: Working Paper No. 03/66 Date: April 1, 2003 Subject(s): Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf \| Exchange rate regimes \| Currency pegs Author's keyword(s): Exchange rate pegging \| dollar peg \| basket peg

Title: Fiscal Deficits and Inflation Author/Editor: Catão, Luis ; Terrones, Marco Series: Working Paper No. 03/65 Date: April 1, 2003 Subject(s): Fiscal policy \| Budget deficits \| Inflation \| Developing countries \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Fiscal Policy \| Inflation \| Macroeconomic Stabilization \| Developing Countries

March 2003

Title: How to Fight Deflation in a Liquidity Trap: Committing to Being Irresponsible Author/Editor: Eggertsson, Gauti B. Series: Working Paper No. 03/64 Date: March 1, 2003 Subject(s): Deflation \| Liquidity \| Stock markets \| Interest rates \| Money \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Deflation \| liquidity traps \| zero bound on nominal rates

Title: Interest Rates, Credit Rationing, and Investment in Developing Countries Author/Editor: Nkusu, Mwanza Series: Working Paper No. 03/63 Date: March 1, 2003 Subject(s): Interest rates \| Developing countries \| Credit \| Investment \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Credit \| developing countries \| interest rates \| institutions \| investment.

Title: Factors Underlying the Definition of Broad Money: An Examination of Recent U.S. Monetary Statistics and Practices of Other Countries Author/Editor: Lim, Ewe-Ghee ; Sriram, Subramanian S. Series: Working Paper No. 03/62 Date: March 1, 2003 Subject(s): Money \| United States \| United Kingdom \| Euro area \| Monetary aggregates \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Definitions Money \| Monetary Aggregates \| United States \| United Kingdom \| Euro Area

Title: The Impact of External Indebtedness on Poverty in Low-Income Countries Author/Editor: Loko, Boileau ; Mlachila, Montfort ; Nallari, Raj ; Kalonji, Kadima D. Series: Working Paper No. 03/61 Date: March 1, 2003 Subject(s): External debt \| HIPC Initiative \| Poverty \| Economic growth Author's keyword(s): Poverty \| Growth \| External Debt

Title: Exchange Rate Policy and Debt Crises in Emerging Economies Author/Editor: Jahjah, Samir ; Montiel, Peter Series: Working Paper No. 03/60 Date: March 1, 2003 Subject(s): Exchange rate policy \| External debt \| Emerging markets \| Devaluation Author's keyword(s): Debt Crises \| exchange rate policy \| default \| devaluation

Title: Determinants of the Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes in Six Central American Countries: An Empirical Analysis Author/Editor: Papaioannou, Michael G. Series: Working Paper No. 03/59 Date: March 1, 2003 Subject(s): Exchange rate regimes \| Costa Rica \| El Salvador \| Guatemala \| Honduras \| Nicaragua \| Panama Author's keyword(s): Exchange Rate Regimes \| Central American Countries

Title: Availability of Financial Soundness Indicators Author/Editor: Slack, Graham L. Series: Working Paper No. 03/58 Date: March 1, 2003 Subject(s): Financial soundness indicators \| Financial crisis Author's keyword(s): Financial soundness indicators \| data collection \| dissemination \| compilation guide

Title: Do Elections Always Motivate Incumbents? Experimentation vs. Career Concerns Author/Editor: Le Borgne, Eric ; Lockwood, Ben Series: Working Paper No. 03/57 Date: March 1, 2003 Subject(s): Public sector \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Career Concerns \| Elections \| Citizen-Candidate \| Experimentation \| Tournaments \| Political Business Cycles

Title: Current Issues in the Design and Conduct of Monetary Policy Author/Editor: Khan, Mohsin S. Series: Working Paper No. 03/56 Date: March 1, 2003 Subject(s): Inflation targeting \| Monetary policy \| Monetary policy instruments Author's keyword(s): Monetary policy \| rules versus discretion \| inflation targeting

Title: Firm-Level Evidence on International Stock Market Comovement Author/Editor: Brooks, Robin ; Del Negro, Marco Series: Working Paper No. 03/55 Date: March 1, 2003 Subject(s): Stock markets \| International capital markets \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Diversification \| risk \| international financial markets \| industrial structure

Title: Trade Costs, Market Integration, and Macroeconomic Volatility Author/Editor: Brunner, Allan D. ; Naknoi, Kanda Series: Working Paper No. 03/54 Date: March 1, 2003 Subject(s): Trade \| Tariffs \| Exchange rates \| Globalization Author's keyword(s): transport costs \| tarriffs \| relative prices \| globalization

Title: Inflation Performance and Constitutional Central Bank Independence: Evidence From Latin America and the Caribbean Author/Editor: Gutierrez, Eva Series: Working Paper No. 03/53 Date: March 1, 2003 Subject(s): Central banks \| Latin America \| Inflation \| Central bank role Author's keyword(s): Central bank independence \| inflation \| Latin American countries

Title: Country and Industry Dynamics in Stock Returns Author/Editor: Catão, Luis ; Timmermann, Allan Series: Working Paper No. 03/52 Date: March 1, 2003 Subject(s): Stock markets \| International capital markets \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Diversification \| Risk \| Volatility States \| Regime Switching \| International Financial markets

Title: Does Insider Trading Raise Market Volatility? Author/Editor: Du, Julan ; Wei, Shang-Jin Series: Working Paper No. 03/51 Date: March 1, 2003 Subject(s): Stock markets \| Exchange rate instability \| Capital flows Author's keyword(s): Insider trading \| market volatility

Title: Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility Author/Editor: Kose, M. Ayhan ; Prasad, Eswar ; Terrones, Marco Series: Working Paper No. 03/50 Date: March 1, 2003 Subject(s): Globalization \| International financial system \| Exchange risk \| Income \| Consumption

Title: Would "Cold Turkey" Work in Turkey? Author/Editor: Celasun, Oya ; Gelos, Gaston ; Prati, Alessandro Series: Working Paper No. 03/49 Date: March 1, 2003 Subject(s): Inflation \| Turkey \| Price stabilization Author's keyword(s): Inflation \| inertia \| price rigidities \| stabilization

Title: Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis? Author/Editor: Cerra, Valerie ; Saxena, Sweta Chaman Series: Working Paper No. 03/48 Date: March 1, 2003 Subject(s): Production \| Asia \| Hong Kong SAR \| Indonesia \| Korea, Republic of \| Malaysia \| Philippines \| Singapore \| Thailand \| Financial crisis \| Investment \| Business cycles \| Republic of Korea \| Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China Author's keyword(s): Asia \| Crisis \| Business Cycles \| Recovery \| Hong Kong \| Indonesia \| Korea \| Malaysia \| Philippines \| Singapore

Title: Market Volatility as a Financial Soundness Indicator: An Application to Israel Author/Editor: Méndez Morales, Armando ; Schumacher, Liliana Series: Working Paper No. 03/47 Date: March 1, 2003 Subject(s): Stock markets \| Israel \| Financial Soundness indicators \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Volatility \| Risk \| Indicator \| Portfolio

Title: Are They All in the Same Boat? The 2000-2001 Growth Slowdown and the G-7 Business Cycle Linkages Author/Editor: Helbling, Thomas ; Bayoumi, Tamim Series: Working Paper No. 03/46 Date: March 1, 2003 Subject(s): International trade \| Business cycles \| Economic growth \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Business Cycles \| International Business Cycles \| Dynamic Factor Models

Title: Primary Dealers in Government Securities: Policy Issues and Selected Countries Experience Author/Editor: Arnone, Marco ; Iden, George Series: Working Paper No. 03/45 Date: March 1, 2003 Subject(s): Public debt \| Debt management \| Government expenditures Author's keyword(s): Primary dealers \| public debt management

Title: Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for South Africa Author/Editor: MacDonald, Ronald ; Ricci, Luca Antonio Series: Working Paper No. 03/44 Date: March 1, 2003 Subject(s): Real effective exchange rates \| South Africa Author's keyword(s): Equilibrium real exchange rate

February 2003

Title: Poverty and Social Impact Analysis - Linking Macroeconomic Policies to Poverty Outcomes: Summary of Early Experiences Author/Editor: Robb, Caroline M. Series: Working Paper No. 03/43 Date: February 1, 2003 Subject(s): Poverty \| Fiscal policy \| Africa \| Fund-supported adjustment programs \| Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility Author's keyword(s): Macroeconomic policies \| poverty \| Africa

Title: Taxation and Pricing of Petroleum Products in Developing Countries: A Framework for Analysis with Application to Nigeria Author/Editor: Hossain, Shahabuddin Mosherraf Series: Working Paper No. 03/42 Date: February 1, 2003 Subject(s): Oil prices \| Nigeria \| Oil producing countries \| Oil pricing policy \| Subsidies \| Taxes \| Price stabilization Author's keyword(s): Petroleum products prices \| taxes \| subsidies \| borer prices \| externalities \| equity \| revenue \| price stabilization

Title: Exchange Rates in the Periphery and International Adjustment Under the Gold Standard Author/Editor: Catão, Luis ; Solomou, Solomos Series: Working Paper No. 03/41 Date: February 1, 2003 Subject(s): Exchange rates \| International trade \| Gold \| International monetary system Author's keyword(s): Gold standard \| silver standard \| exchange rates \| international trade

Title: Foreign Aid and Consumption Smoothing: Evidence from Global Food Aid Author/Editor: Gupta, Sanjeev ; Clements, Benedict J. ; Tiongson, Erwin Series: Working Paper No. 03/40 Date: February 1, 2003 Subject(s): Development assistance \| Consumption \| Social safety nets Author's keyword(s): Food aid \| foreign aid \| counterpart funds \| consumption smoothing

Title: Monetary Policy Rules for Financially Vulnerable Economies Author/Editor: Morón, Eduardo ; Winkelried, Diego Series: Working Paper No. 03/39 Date: February 1, 2003 Subject(s): Monetary policy \| Inflation targeting \| Emerging markets \| Economic models \| Dollarization Author's keyword(s): Liability dollarization \| inflation targeting \| Monetary Policy Rules \| Latin America

Title: Do IMF-Supported Programs Help Make Fiscal Adjustment More Durable? Author/Editor: Bulir, Ales ; Moon, Soojin Series: Working Paper No. 03/38 Date: February 1, 2003 Subject(s): Fund-supported adjustment programs \| Conditionality \| Fiscal policy Author's keyword(s): IMF-supported programs \| conditionality \| fiscal policy \| general evaluation estimator

Title: The Long-Run Effects of Trade on Income and Income Growth Author/Editor: Brunner, Allan D. Series: Working Paper No. 03/37 Date: February 1, 2003 Subject(s): Trade liberalization \| Development \| Income \| Economic growth \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Panel data model \| trade liberalization \| economic growth \| economic development

Title: Fiscal Adjustment in Transition Countries: Evidence from the 1990s Author/Editor: Purfield, Catriona Series: Working Paper No. 03/36 Date: February 1, 2003 Subject(s): Fiscal policy \| Fund-supported adjustment programs \| Transition economies Author's keyword(s): Fiscal policy \| transition economies \| fiscal adjustment \| logit regression

Title: A Currency Union for the Caribbean Author/Editor: Worrell, DeLisle Series: Working Paper No. 03/35 Date: February 1, 2003 Subject(s): Monetary unions \| Eastern Caribbean Currency Union \| Dollarization Author's keyword(s): Currency Board \| Dollarization \| Caribbean

Title: Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain: The Effects of Financial Liberalization Author/Editor: Kaminsky, Graciela Laura ; Schmukler, Sergio L. Series: Working Paper No. 03/34 Date: February 1, 2003 Subject(s): Capital account liberalization \| Financial stability \| Capital controls \| Stock markets Author's keyword(s): Financial liberalization \| capital controls \| financial integration \| stock market prices \| booms \| busts \| financial cycles

Title: Performance Budgeting: Managing the Reform Process Author/Editor: Diamond, Jack Series: Working Paper No. 03/33 Date: February 1, 2003 Subject(s): Budgeting \| Fiscal transparency \| Emerging markets Author's keyword(s): Budget reform \| performance budgeting \| fiscal transparency \| emerging economies

Title: Early Warning Systems: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach Author/Editor: Abiad, Abdul Series: Working Paper No. 03/32 Date: February 1, 2003 Subject(s): Financial crisis \| Currencies \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Currency crisis \| early warning system \| regime switching \| Markov switching

Title: Some Simulation Properties of the Major Euro Area Economies in MULTIMOD Author/Editor: Hunt, Ben ; Laxton, Douglas Series: Working Paper No. 03/31 Date: February 1, 2003 Subject(s): Economic models Author's keyword(s): Macroeconomic models \| simulation properties

Title: Trade, Growth, and Poverty: A Selective Survey Author/Editor: Berg, Andrew ; Krueger, Anne O. Series: Working Paper No. 03/30 Date: February 1, 2003 Subject(s): Trade \| Economic growth \| Poverty \| Income distribution \| Protectionism Author's keyword(s): Trade \| growth \| poverty \| income distribution \| trade protection \| openness

Title: Economic Implications of China's Demographics in the 21st Century Author/Editor: Cheng, Kevin C. Series: Working Paper No. 03/29 Date: February 1, 2003 Subject(s): Population \| China \| Aging \| Capital flows \| Savings \| Economic models \| China, People's Republic of Author's keyword(s): demographic structure \| capital flows \| savings

Title: The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate of the Malagasy Franc: Estimation and Assessment Author/Editor: Cady, John Series: Working Paper No. 03/28 Date: February 1, 2003 Subject(s): Real effective exchange rates \| Madagascar \| Malagasy franc Author's keyword(s): Madagascar \| real exchange rate \| cointegration \| exchange rate misalignment

Title: Financial Infrastructure, Group Interests, and Capital Accumulation: Theory, Evidence, and Policy Author/Editor: Bossone, Biaggio ; Mahajan, Sandeep ; Zahir, Farah Series: Working Paper No. 03/24 Date: February 1, 2003 Subject(s): Capital accumulation \| Banks Author's keyword(s): Banks \| Nonbank financial intermediation \| financial infrastructure \| group interest \| information \| knowledge \| transition

January 2003

Title: How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles? Author/Editor: Kose, M. Ayhan ; Prasad, Eswar ; Terrones, Marco Series: Working Paper No. 03/27 Date: January 1, 2003 Subject(s): Globalization \| Trade \| Production \| Business cycles Author's keyword(s): Macroeconomic fluctuations \| trade and financial integration \| output and consumption comovement

Title: Exchange Rate Regime Considerations in an Oil Economy: The Case of the Islamic Republic of Iran Author/Editor: Celasun, Oya Series: Working Paper No. 03/26 Date: January 1, 2003 Subject(s): Exchange rate regimes \| Iran, Islamic Republic of \| Real effective exchange rates \| Oil Author's keyword(s): Iran \| exchange rate regime \| real exchange rate \| oil

Title: Some Implications for Monetary Policy of Uncertain Exchange Rate Pass-Through Author/Editor: Hunt, Ben ; Isard, Peter Series: Working Paper No. 03/25 Date: January 1, 2003 Subject(s): Monetary policy \| Exchange rates Author's keyword(s): Monetary policy \| exchange rate \| uncertainty

Title: An Analysis of the Underground Economy and Its Macroeconomic Consequences Author/Editor: Dabla-Norris, Era ; Feltenstein, Andrew Series: Working Paper No. 03/23 Date: January 1, 2003 Subject(s): Banking \| Consumption \| Credit \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Underground economy \| credit rationing

Title: Productivity Trends in India's Manufacturing Sectors in the Last Two Decades Author/Editor: Unel, Bulent Series: Working Paper No. 03/22 Date: January 1, 2003 Subject(s): Labor productivity \| India \| Manufacturing Author's keyword(s): Labor productivity \| factor productivity

Title: Medium-Term Exchange Rate Forecasting: What Can We Expect? Author/Editor: Meredith, Guy Series: Working Paper No. 03/21 Date: January 1, 2003 Subject(s): Exchange rates \| Forecasting models \| Purchasing power parity Author's keyword(s): Exchange rate \| forecasting \| purchasing-power parity

Title: Portfolio Flows into India: Do Domestic Fundamentals Matter? Author/Editor: Gordon, James P. F. ; Gupta, Poonam Series: Working Paper No. 03/20 Date: January 1, 2003 Subject(s): Capital flows \| India \| Capital inflows \| Bonds Author's keyword(s): Capital flows \| portfolio flows \| India

Title: Fiscal Sustainability and Resource Mobilization in the Dominican Republic Author/Editor: Melhado, Oscar E. Series: Working Paper No. 03/19 Date: January 1, 2003 Subject(s): Fiscal policy \| Dominican Republic \| Resource mobilization Author's keyword(s): Dominican Republic \| fiscal sustainability \| resource mobilization

Title: Anticipating Arrears to the IMF: Early Warning Systems Author/Editor: Oka, Chikako Series: Working Paper No. 03/18 Date: January 1, 2003 Subject(s): Overdue obligations \| Credit Author's keyword(s): Arrears \| credit risk \| default \| early warning

Title: What Happens After Supervisory Intervention? Considering Bank Closure Options Author/Editor: Andrews, Michael ; Josefsson, Mats Series: Working Paper No. 03/17 Date: January 1, 2003 Subject(s): Bank supervision \| Bank restructuring \| Deposit insurance Author's keyword(s): Bank supervision \| weak banks \| bank restructuring \| systemic crisis \| deposit insurance

Title: Political Economy of Oil-Revenue Sharing in a Developing Country: Illustrations from Nigeria Author/Editor: Ahmad, Ehtisham ; Singh, Raju Series: Working Paper No. 03/16 Date: January 1, 2003 Subject(s): Political economy \| Oil revenues \| Nigeria Author's keyword(s): Intergovernmental fiscal relations

Title: Information Technology and Productivity Growth in Asia Author/Editor: Lee, Il Houng ; Khatri, Yougesh Series: Working Paper No. 03/15 Date: January 1, 2003 Subject(s): Productivity \| Asia \| Economic growth \| Information technology Author's keyword(s): Growth \| Asia

Title: Income Inequality and Redistributive Government Spending Author/Editor: de Mello, Luiz ; Tiongson, Erwin Series: Working Paper No. 03/14 Date: January 1, 2003 Subject(s): Income distribution \| Government expenditures \| Capital Author's keyword(s): Income distribution \| government spending \| capital deepening

Title: Toward a Statutory Approach to Sovereign Debt Restructuring: Lessons from Corporate Bankruptcy Practice around the World Author/Editor: Bolton, Patrick Series: Working Paper No. 03/13 Date: January 1, 2003 Subject(s): Debt restructuring \| Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism \| Corporate governance \| Bankruptcy Author's keyword(s): Bankruptcy \| Sovereign Debt

Title: Inflation Targeting Lite Author/Editor: Stone, Mark R. Series: Working Paper No. 03/12 Date: January 1, 2003 Subject(s): Inflation targeting \| Monetary policy \| Central banks \| Price stabilization Author's keyword(s): Monetary Policy framework \| inflation targeting \| central bank \| price stability

Title: Dollarization of Liabilities: Beyond the Usual Suspects Author/Editor: Barajas, Adolfo ; Méndez Morales, Armando Series: Working Paper No. 03/11 Date: January 1, 2003 Subject(s): Dollarization \| Exchange rate regimes \| Latin America \| Banking \| Credit Author's keyword(s): Dollarization \| panel data \| credit \| exchange rate

Title: FDI to Africa: The Role of Price Stability and Currency Instability Author/Editor: Rogoff, Kenneth ; Reinhart, Carmen Series: Working Paper No. 03/10 Date: January 1, 2003 Subject(s): Foreign investment \| Africa \| Price stabilization \| Parallel exchange markets \| Inflation \| Capital controls \| Currencies Author's keyword(s): Parallel markets \| inflation \| capital controls \| and conflict

Title: Inflation Targeting Regimes Author/Editor: Carare, Alina ; Stone, Mark R. Series: Working Paper No. 03/9 Date: January 1, 2003 Subject(s): Inflation targeting \| Monetary policy \| Central banks \| Price stabilization Author's keyword(s): Monetary policy framework \| inflation targeting \| central bank \| price stability

Title: What Determines the Implementation of IMF-Supported Programs? Author/Editor: Ivanova, Anna ; Mayer, Wolfgang ; Mourmouras, Alex ; Anayotos, George C. Series: Working Paper No. 03/8 Date: January 1, 2003 Subject(s): Fund-supported adjustment programs \| Conditionality Author's keyword(s): IMF-supported programs \| conditionality \| ownership

Title: Currency Demand, the Underground Economy, and Tax Evasion: The Case of Guyana Author/Editor: Faal, Ebrima Series: Working Paper No. 03/7 Date: January 1, 2003 Subject(s): Currencies \| Guyana \| Tax evasion Author's keyword(s): Underground economy \| Guyana \| Tax Evasion

Title: Small African Stock Markets--The Case of the Lusaka Stock Exchange Author/Editor: Marone, Heloisa Series: Working Paper No. 03/6 Date: January 1, 2003 Subject(s): Stock markets \| Zambia Author's keyword(s): Financial Development \| Stock Market \| Small Economies \| Zambia

Title: Optimal Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with Habit Formation and Nominal Rigidities Author/Editor: Choi, Woon Gyu ; Jung, Yongseung Series: Working Paper No. 03/5 Date: January 1, 2003 Subject(s): Monetary policy