IMF Working Papers

IMF Working Papers by Date

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December 2002

Title: Performance Budgeting--Is Accrual Accounting Required? Author/Editor: Diamond, Jack Series: Working Paper No. 02/240 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Government accounting \| Financial statistics \| Fiscal policy Author's keyword(s): Government Accounting \| Budget Systems \| Fiscal Reporting

Title: Macroeconomic News and Stock Returns in the United States and Germany Author/Editor: Funke, Norbert ; Matsuda, Akimi Series: Working Paper No. 02/239 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Stock markets \| United States \| Germany Author's keyword(s): Stock markets \| macroeconomic news

Title: Stock Market Developments and Private Consumer Spending in Emerging Markets Author/Editor: Funke, Norbert Series: Working Paper No. 02/238 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Emerging markets \| Bonds \| Consumption \| Stock markets Author's keyword(s): Consumption \| stock market \| financial wealth

Title: Firm Investment, Corporate Finance, and Taxation Author/Editor: Palomba, Geremia Series: Working Paper No. 02/237 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Investment \| Capital markets \| Taxation \| Corporate taxes Author's keyword(s): Firm Investment \| Imperfect Capital Markets \| Corporate Income Taxation

Title: Tax Revenue Forecasts in IMF-Supported Programs Author/Editor: Golosov, Mikhail ; King, J. R. Series: Working Paper No. 02/236 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Tax revenues \| Fund-supported adjustment programs \| Economic forecasting Author's keyword(s): Forecasting \| tax revenues \| IMF-Supported programs

Title: Imperfect Competition and the Design of VAT Regimes: The Case of Energy Trade between Russia and Ukraine Author/Editor: Shiells, Clinton R. Series: Working Paper No. 02/235 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Competition \| Value added tax \| Russian Federation \| Ukraine \| Oil \| Energy \| Trade \| Tax revenues \| Russia Author's keyword(s): Russia \| Ukraine \| Energy Trade \| VAT \| Imperfect Competition

Title: "Original Sin," Balance Sheet Crises, and the Roles of International Lending Author/Editor: Zettelmeyer, Jeromin ; Jeanne, Olivier Series: Working Paper No. 02/234 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Financial crisis \| Loans \| Exchange rate regimes \| Dollarization Author's keyword(s): currency crises \| balance sheet mismatches \| international lending

Title: Market Predictability of ECB Monetary Policy Decisions: A Comparative Examination Author/Editor: Ross, Kevin Series: Working Paper No. 02/233 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Monetary policy \| European Central Bank \| Interest rates \| Capital markets \| Central bank role Author's keyword(s): Centarl bank predictability \| interest rates \| policy basis \| communication

Title: Measuring Liquidity in Financial Markets Author/Editor: Sarr, Abdourahmane ; Lybek, Tonny Series: Working Paper No. 02/232 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Liquidity \| Capital markets Author's keyword(s): Measuring liquidity \| financial markets

Title: Leading Indicators of Growth and Inflation in Turkey Author/Editor: Leigh, Daniel ; Rossi, Marco Series: Working Paper No. 02/231 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Economic growth \| Turkey \| Inflation targeting \| Economic indicators Author's keyword(s): Growth inflation \| combination forecasts \| leading indicators \| inflation targeting \| Turkey

Title: Compiling and Using Export and Import Price Indices Author/Editor: Zieschang, Kimberly D. ; Dridi, Jemma Series: Working Paper No. 02/230 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): International trade \| Consumer price indexes \| Economic models

Title: Common and Idiosyncratic Components in Real Output: Further International Evidence Author/Editor: Nadal-De Simone, Francisco Series: Working Paper No. 02/229 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Business cycles \| Monetary policy \| Economic models \| Production Author's keyword(s): Business cycles \| common \| European and idiosyncratic components \| state-space models

Title: Why Do Many Disinflations Fail? The Importance of Luck, Timing, and Political Institutions Author/Editor: Hamann, A. Javier ; Prati, Alessandro Series: Working Paper No. 02/228 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Disinflation \| Stabilization programs Author's keyword(s): Disinflation \| stabilization

Title: Central American Tax Reform: Trends and Possibilities Author/Editor: Stotsky, Janet Gale ; WoldeMariam, Asegedech Series: Working Paper No. 02/227 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Tax reforms \| Costa Rica \| Dominican Republic \| El Salvador \| Guatemala \| Honduras \| Nicaragua \| Panama \| Tax administration \| Value added tax Author's keyword(s): Tax reform \| Central America

Title: Monetary Union in West Africa: Who Might Gain, Who Might Lose, and Why? Author/Editor: Debrun, Xavier ; Masson, Paul R. ; Pattillo, Catherine A. Series: Working Paper No. 02/226 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Monetary unions \| Africa \| West African Economic and Monetary Union \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Monetary Union \| West Africa \| Africa \| Fiscal distortions

Title: Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: Does "Benign Neglect" Make Sense? Author/Editor: Bordo, Michael D. ; Jeanne, Olivier Series: Working Paper No. 02/225 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Monetary policy \| Asset prices \| Credit \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Monetary Policy; asset prices \| credit crunch \| Taylor rule \| bubbles \| new economy

Title: Explaining the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Different Prices Author/Editor: Choudhri, Ehsan U. ; Faruqee, Hamid ; Hakura, Dalia Series: Working Paper No. 02/224 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Exchange rates \| Prices \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Exchange rate pass-through \| prices \| New open economy macroeconomic models

Title: Keynes, Cocoa, and Copper: In Search of Commodity Currencies Author/Editor: Cashin, Paul ; Céspedes, Luis Felipe ; Sahay, Ratna Series: Working Paper No. 02/223 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Commodities \| Cocoa \| Copper \| Commodity prices \| Purchasing power parity Author's keyword(s): Exchange rate \| commodity prices \| purchasing power parity \| developing country

Title: How Symmetric Are the Shocks and the Shock Adjustment Dynamics Between the Euro Area and Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) ? Author/Editor: Frenkel, Michael ; Nickel, Christiane Series: Working Paper No. 02/222 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Euro area \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): European monetary integration \| international monetary arrangements and institutions

Title: Income from Bonds: Treatment in the System of National Accounts 1993 Author/Editor: Laliberté, Lucie Series: Working Paper No. 02/221 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Bonds \| Income \| National accounts Author's keyword(s): Interest accrual \| macroeconomic statistics \| bonds \| national accounts

Title: Monetary Policy Credibility and the Unemployment-Inflation Tradeoff: Some Evidence from 17 Industrial Countries Author/Editor: Laxton, Douglas ; N'Diaye, Papa M'B. P. Series: Working Paper No. 02/220 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Monetary policy \| Unemployment \| Inflation Author's keyword(s): Phillips Curve \| Unemployment \| Monetary Policy \| Lucas Critique

Title: Welfare Effects of Transparency in Foreign Exchange Markets: The Role of Hedging Opportunities Author/Editor: Drees, Burkhard ; Eckwert, Bernhard Series: Working Paper No. 02/219 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Exchange markets \| Transparency Author's keyword(s): Foreign exchange markets \| information \| transparency \| hedging

Title: Financial Contagion and Investor "Learning": An Empirical Investigation Author/Editor: Basu, Ritu Series: Working Paper No. 02/218 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Capital markets \| Bonds Author's keyword(s): Contagion \| trader behavior \| herding \| sunspots \| learning

Title: International Liquidity and the Role of the SDR in the International Monetary System Author/Editor: Clark, Peter B. ; Polak, J. J. Series: Working Paper No. 02/217 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): International liquidity \| SDR role \| International monetary system Author's keyword(s): International monetary system \| international liquidity \| SDR

Title: Population Aging and Long-Term Fiscal Sustainability in Austria Author/Editor: Eskesen, Leif Lybecker Series: Working Paper No. 02/216 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Aging \| Austria \| Pensions \| Health care \| Public finance Author's keyword(s): Population Aging \| Pensions \| Health Care \| Fiscal Policy \| Public Finance Sustainability

Title: Implications of Migration on Income and Welfare of Nationals Author/Editor: Ueda, Kenichi Series: Working Paper No. 02/215 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Income \| Tax policy \| Labor \| Migration Author's keyword(s): Welfare cost of migration \| GMP \| tax policy

Title: WTO Financial Services Commitments: Determinants and Impact on Financial Stability Author/Editor: Valckx, Nico Series: Working Paper No. 02/214 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): World Trade Organization \| Banking \| Financial stability Author's keyword(s): Financial services liberalization commitments \| choice of commitments \| banking and currency crises \| financial instability

Title: A Political-Economic Model of the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime Author/Editor: Sun, Yan Series: Working Paper No. 02/212 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Exchange rate regimes \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Exchange rate regimes \| political economy

Title: An Evaluation of Monetary Regime Options for Latin America Author/Editor: Berg, Andrew ; Borensztein, Eduardo ; Mauro, Paolo Series: Working Paper No. 02/211 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Exchange rate regimes \| Latin America \| Monetary unions \| Dollarization Author's keyword(s): Exchange rate regimes \| currency union \| dollarization

Title: A Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crisis Author/Editor: Allen, Mark ; Rosenberg, Christoph B. ; Keller, Christian ; Setser, Brad ; Roubini, Nouriel Series: Working Paper No. 02/210 Notes: See also: The Balance Sheet Approach and its Applications at the Fund, June 30, 2003 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Financial crisis \| Emerging markets \| External financing Author's keyword(s): National balance sheets \| financial crisis \| IMF policy \| emerging markets

Title: On National or Supranational Objectives: Improving the Effectiveness of Targeted Expenditure Programs Author/Editor: Ahmad, Ehtisham ; Tandberg, E. ; Zhang, Ping Series: Working Paper No. 02/209 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Government expenditures Author's keyword(s): Public expenditures \| incentive schemes \| intergovernmental finance

Title: The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity--A Review of the Literature Author/Editor: Hemming, Richard ; Kell, Michael ; Mahfouz, Selma Series: Working Paper No. 02/208 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Fiscal policy \| Economic growth Author's keyword(s): Fiscal Policy \| economic activity \| fiscal multipliers

Title: MODIS: A Market-Oriented Deposit Insurance Scheme Author/Editor: Vaez-Zadeh, Reza ; Xie, Danyang ; Zoli, Edda Series: Working Paper No. 02/207 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Deposit insurance \| Banking Author's keyword(s): Deposit insurance \| market-oriented approach

Title: The Use of Credit Ceilings in the Presence of Indirect Monetary Instruments: An Analytical Framework Author/Editor: Yossifov, Plamen Series: Working Paper No. 02/206 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Monetary policy instruments \| Credit ceilings \| Credit controls Author's keyword(s): Credit ceilings \| selective credit controls

Title: An Analysis of Money Demand and Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran Author/Editor: Celasun, Oya ; Goswami, Mangal Series: Working Paper No. 02/205 Date: December 1, 2002 Subject(s): Demand for money \| Iran, Islamic Republic of \| Inflation \| Exchange rates Author's keyword(s): Iran \| inflation \| money demand \| exchange rate

November 2002

Title: The Persistence of Corruption and Slow Economic Growth Author/Editor: Mauro, Paolo Series: Working Paper No. 02/213 Date: November 1, 2002 Subject(s): Corruption \| Economic growth Author's keyword(s): multiple equilibria \| strategic complementarities \| persistence \| corruption

Title: Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey Author/Editor: Leigh, Daniel ; Rossi, Marco Series: Working Paper No. 02/204 Date: November 1, 2002 Subject(s): Exchange rates \| Turkey \| Inflation Author's keyword(s): Exchange rate pass-through \| inflation \| inflation targeting \| distribution chain \| VAR \| Turkey

Title: Oil Revenue Assignments: Country Experiences and Issues Author/Editor: Ahmad, Ehtisham ; Mottu, Eric Series: Working Paper No. 02/203 Date: November 1, 2002 Subject(s): Oil revenues \| Canada \| Colombia \| Indonesia \| Mexico \| Nigeria \| Russian Federation \| United Arab Emirates \| United States \| Venezuela, Republica Bolivariana de \| Venezuela, República Bolivariana de Author's keyword(s): Oil revenue \| tax assignment \| revenue sharing \| oil-producing countries \| Canada \| Columbia \| Indonesia \| Mexico \| Nigeria \|

Title: International Stock Returns and Market Integration: A Regional Perspective Author/Editor: Brooks, Robin ; Del Negro, Marco Series: Working Paper No. 02/202 Date: November 1, 2002 Subject(s): Stock markets \| International capital markets \| Industry Author's keyword(s): Diversification \| risk \| international financial markets \| industrial structure

Title: Testing the Relationship between Government Spending and Revenue: Evidence from GCC Countries Author/Editor: Fasano-Filho, Ugo ; Wang, Qing Series: Working Paper No. 02/201 Date: November 1, 2002 Subject(s): Government expenditures \| Revenues \| Fiscal policy \| Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf Author's keyword(s): Fiscal policy \| GCC countries

Title: An Empirical Analysis of China's Export Behavior Author/Editor: Cerra, Valerie ; Saxena, Sweta Chaman Series: Working Paper No. 02/200 Date: November 1, 2002 Subject(s): Exports \| China \| Trade \| Structural adjustment \| China, People's Republic of Author's keyword(s): China \| Trade Elasticities \| Structural Reform

Title: Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers in France Author/Editor: Di Bella, Gabriel Series: Working Paper No. 02/199 Date: November 1, 2002 Subject(s): Fiscal policy \| France Author's keyword(s): Automatic stabilizers \| fiscal policy \| France

Title: The Economics of Post Conflict Aid Author/Editor: Demekas, Dimitri G. ; McHugh, James ; Kosma, Theodora Series: Working Paper No. 02/198 Date: November 1, 2002 Subject(s): Development assistance \| Post-conflict emergency assistance Author's keyword(s): Aid \| reconstruction \| humanitarian assistance \| post conflict

Title: Modern Hyper- and High Inflations Author/Editor: Fischer, Stanley ; Sahay, Ratna ; Végh Gramont, Carlos A. Series: Working Paper No. 02/197 Date: November 1, 2002 Subject(s): Budget deficits \| Inflation \| Economic stabilization \| Economic growth Author's keyword(s): Fiscal deficit \| inflationary dynamics \| stabilization \| growth

Title: The Challenge of Diversification in the Caribbean Author/Editor: Berezin, Peter ; Salehizadeh, A. ; Santana, Elcior Series: Working Paper No. 02/196 Date: November 1, 2002 Subject(s): Economic growth \| Caribbean \| Consumption

Title: Modeling the Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS Author/Editor: Haacker, Markus Series: Working Paper No. 02/195 Date: November 1, 2002 Subject(s): Economic growth \| Africa \| Capital flows \| Labor \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Economic Growth \| Capital Mobility \| Dual Economy \| HIV/AIDS \| Southern Africa

Title: Growth-Financial Intermediation Nexus in China Author/Editor: Aziz, Jahangir ; Duenwald, Christoph Series: Working Paper No. 02/194 Date: November 1, 2002 Subject(s): Economic growth \| China \| Financial systems \| China, People's Republic of Author's keyword(s): Growth \| financial intermediation \| provincial differences

Title: Bedfellows, Hostages, or Perfect Strangers? Global Capital Markets and the Catalytic Effect of IMF Crisis Lending Author/Editor: Cottarelli, Carlo ; Giannini, Curzio Series: Working Paper No. 02/193 Date: November 1, 2002 Subject(s): Fund \| Capital markets \| Financial crisis \| Lending commitments by Fund Author's keyword(s): International Monetary Fund \| Lender of Last Resort \| Capital-account Crises

Title: Islamic Financial Institutions and Products in the Global Financial System: Key Issues in Risk Management and Challenges Ahead Author/Editor: Sundararajan, Vasudevan ; Errico, Luca Series: Working Paper No. 02/192 Date: November 1, 2002 Subject(s): Financial systems \| Islamic banking \| Risk management Author's keyword(s): Islamic banking \| risk management \| Islamic Financial Services Board

Title: Quantifying the Impact of Trade on Wages: The Role of Nontraded Goods Author/Editor: Tokarick, Stephen Series: Working Paper No. 02/191 Date: November 1, 2002 Subject(s): Trade \| Wages \| Labor \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Trade \| Wages \| General Equilibrium Models

Title: Tunisia's Experience with Real Exchange Rate Targeting and the Transition to a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Author/Editor: Fanizza, Domenico ; Laframboise, Nicole ; Martin, E. ; Sab, Randa ; Karpowicz, I. Series: Working Paper No. 02/190 Date: November 1, 2002 Subject(s): Real effective exchange rates \| Tunisia \| Flexible exchange rates \| Exchange rate regimes Author's keyword(s): Real exchange rate target

Title: Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions over Integration and Geography in Economic Development Author/Editor: Rodrik, Dani ; Subramanian, Arvind ; Trebbi, Francesco Series: Working Paper No. 02/189 Date: November 1, 2002 Subject(s): Development \| Trade \| Income Author's keyword(s): Institutions \| integration \| geography \| development

Title: Dollarization, Monetary Policy, and the Pass-Through Author/Editor: Ize, Alain ; Parrado, Eric Series: Working Paper No. 02/188 Date: November 1, 2002 Subject(s): Dollarization \| Monetary policy \| Exchange rates \| Wages \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): dollarization \| exchange rates \| optimal monetary policy \| small open economy

Title: Expenditure Issues and Governance in Central America Author/Editor: Corbacho, Ana ; Davoodi, Hamid Reza Series: Working Paper No. 02/187 Date: November 1, 2002 Subject(s): Government expenditures \| Costa Rica \| Dominican Republic \| El Salvador \| Guatemala \| Honduras \| Nicaragua \| Panama \| Health care \| Education \| Social safety nets \| Governance Author's keyword(s): Expenditure issues \| fiscal adjustment \| poverty \| inequality \| health \| education \| social safety net \| governance

Title: Consolidation and Market Structure in Emerging Market Banking Systems Author/Editor: Gelos, Gaston ; Roldos, Jorge Series: Working Paper No. 02/186 Date: November 1, 2002 Subject(s): Banking systems \| Emerging markets Author's keyword(s): Banking \| market structure \| competition \| emerging markets \| Panzar and Rosse methodology \| contestability

Title: Money Demand in the Euro Area: Where Do We Stand (Today)? Author/Editor: Kontolemis G., Zenon Series: Working Paper No. 02/185 Date: November 1, 2002 Subject(s): Demand for money \| Euro area \| European Economic and Monetary Union \| Monetary policy \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): EMU \| Monetary Policy \| Money Demand \| Taylor Rule \| Cointegration

Title: The Inflation Targeting Framework in Norway Author/Editor: Soikkeli, Jarkko Series: Working Paper No. 02/184 Date: November 1, 2002 Subject(s): Inflation targeting \| Norway \| Monetary policy \| Exchange rates Author's keyword(s): Inflation targeting monetary policy \| exchange rates

Title: How Does Conditional Aid (Not) Work? Author/Editor: Ramcharan, Rodney Series: Working Paper No. 02/183 Date: November 1, 2002 Subject(s): Conditionality \| Fiscal reforms \| Financial assistance Author's keyword(s): Conditionality \| policy reform

Title: User Payments for Basic Education in Low-Income Countries Author/Editor: Hillman, Arye L. ; Jenkner, E. Series: Working Paper No. 02/182 Date: November 1, 2002 Subject(s): Government expenditures \| Education \| Low income developing countries Author's keyword(s): Government expenditure and education \| education

October 2002

Title: Moral Hazard and International Crisis Lending: A Test Author/Editor: Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni ; Schnabel, Isabel ; Zettelmeyer, Jeromin Series: Working Paper No. 02/181 Date: October 1, 2002 Subject(s): Bonds \| Russian Federation \| Financial crisis \| Moral hazard \| Debt \| Economic models \| Moral hazard Author's keyword(s): Moral hazard \| international lending \| financial crises \| sovereign debt

Title: Economic Transition, Entrepreneurial Capacity, and Intergenerational Distribution Author/Editor: Jensen, Svend E. Hougaard ; Rasmussen, Tobias N. ; Rutherford, Thomas Fox Series: Working Paper No. 02/180 Date: October 1, 2002 Subject(s): Transition economies \| Economic growth \| Structural adjustment \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Transition economies \| structural reforms \| economic growth \| intergenerational distribution \| dynamic general equilibrium

Title: Statistical Legislation: Toward a More General Framework Author/Editor: Khawaja, Sarmad ; Morrison, Thomas K. Series: Working Paper No. 02/179 Date: October 1, 2002 Subject(s): Statistics \| Fund Author's keyword(s): Statistical legislation \| official statistics \| IMF

Title: A New Financial System for Poverty Reduction and Growth Author/Editor: Bossone, Biaggio ; Sarr, Abdourahmane Series: Working Paper No. 02/178 Date: October 1, 2002 Subject(s): Poverty reduction \| Economic growth \| Banking \| Credit Author's keyword(s): Banks \| credit \| deposits \| deposit creating institution \| finance \| growth \| inside money \| poverty reduction

Title: Operational Aspects of Fiscal Policy in Oil-Producing Countries Author/Editor: Barnett, Steven ; Ossowski, Rolando Series: Working Paper No. 02/177 Date: October 1, 2002 Subject(s): Fiscal policy \| Oil producing countries \| Oil pricing policy Author's keyword(s): Oil \| petroleum \| fiscal policy \| oil-producing countries \| nonrenewable resources \| fiscal sustainability

Title: A Comparative Analysis of Government Social Spending Indicators and Their Correlation with Social Outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa Author/Editor: Lopes, Paulo Silva Series: Working Paper No. 02/176 Date: October 1, 2002 Subject(s): Social indicators \| Sub-Saharan Africa \| Government expenditures \| Development assistance \| Poverty Author's keyword(s): Social expenditure \| social indicators \| sub-saharan Africa \| government expenditure \| social development \| social policy \|

Title: The ECB and Euro-Area Enlargement Author/Editor: Berger, Helge Series: Working Paper No. 02/175 Date: October 1, 2002 Subject(s): European Central Bank \| Euro area \| European Economic and Monetary Union \| Monetary policy Author's keyword(s): European central bank \| euro area \| EMU \| transition countries \| accession countries \| monetary policy

Title: Transparency and International Investor Behavior Author/Editor: Gelos, Gaston ; Wei, Shang-Jin Series: Working Paper No. 02/174 Date: October 1, 2002 Subject(s): Financial crisis \| Transparency \| Investment \| Emerging markets \| International financial system Author's keyword(s): Financial crises \| transparency \| portfolio investment \| emerging markets \| international investors \| international financial

Title: Cotton Sector Strategies in West and Central Africa Author/Editor: Badiane, Ousmane ; Ghura, Dhaneshwar ; Goreux, Louis M. ; Masson, Paul R. Series: Working Paper No. 02/173 Date: October 1, 2002 Subject(s): Cotton \| Africa \| Subsidies Author's keyword(s): World cotton market \| cotton subsidies \| cotton sector reform \| west and central Africa

Title: Poverty Dynamics in Rural India Author/Editor: Aziz, Jahangir Series: Working Paper No. 02/172 Date: October 1, 2002 Subject(s): Poverty \| India

Title: The Missing Globalization Puzzle Author/Editor: Coe, David T. ; Subramanian, Arvind ; Tamirisa, Natalia T. ; Bhavnani, Rikhil Series: Working Paper No. 02/171 Date: October 1, 2002 Subject(s): Globalization \| Trade \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): globalization \| trade gravity model \| distance

Title: Sovereign Credit Ratings Methodology: An Evaluation Author/Editor: Bhatia, Ashok Vir Series: Working Paper No. 02/170 Date: October 1, 2002 Subject(s): Credit \| Debt \| Crisis prevention \| Exchange risk \| Reserves adequacy Author's keyword(s): Credit ratings \| debt \| early warning \| risk \| sovereign \| vulnerability

Title: Transition and Regional Inequality in Russia: Reorganization or Procrastination? Author/Editor: Tytell, Irina Series: Working Paper No. 02/169 Date: October 1, 2002 Subject(s): Economic growth \| Russian Federation \| Transition economies \| Income distribution Author's keyword(s): Growth \| transition \| inequality

Title: Recentralization in China? Author/Editor: Ahmad, Ehtisham ; Keping, Li ; Richardson, Thomas J. ; Singh, Raju Series: Working Paper No. 02/168 Date: October 1, 2002 Subject(s): Centrally planned economies \| China \| Economic reform \| China, People's Republic of Author's keyword(s): Intergovernmental Relations

Title: Statistical Treatment of 'Build-Own-Operate-Transfer' Schemes Author/Editor: Donaghue, Brian Series: Working Paper No. 02/167 Date: October 1, 2002 Subject(s): Statistics \| National accounts Author's keyword(s): Build-Own-Operate-Transfer \| BOOT

Title: Exchange Rate Responses to Inflation in Bangladesh Author/Editor: Hossain, Md. Akhtar Series: Working Paper No. 02/166 Date: October 1, 2002 Subject(s): Exchange rates \| Bangladesh \| Inflation \| Monetary policy \| Devaluation \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Bangladesh \| devaluation \| inflation \| monetary policy

September 2002

Title: An Empirical Investigation of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in South Africa Author/Editor: Bhundia, Ashok Series: Working Paper No. 02/165 Date: September 1, 2002 Subject(s): Exchange rates \| South Africa \| Producer prices \| Exchange rate instability Author's keyword(s): Pass-through \| exchange rate \| producer prices \| structural VAR

Title: On Sand and the Role of Grease in Labor Markets: How Does Germany Compare? Author/Editor: Decressin, Anja ; Decressin, Jörg Series: Working Paper No. 02/164 Date: September 1, 2002 Subject(s): Labor markets \| Germany \| Wages \| Inflation targeting Author's keyword(s): Wage setting \| wage rigidities \| inflation targets

Title: Crisis Prevention and Crisis Management: The Role of Regulatory Governance Author/Editor: Das, Udaibir S. ; Quintyn, Marc Series: Working Paper No. 02/163 Date: September 1, 2002 Subject(s): Governance \| Financial sector \| Bank supervision \| Transparency \| Financial crisis \| Crisis prevention Author's keyword(s): Regulatory governance \| financial sector supervision \| agency independence \| accountability \| transparency \| integrity

Title: Politics, Government Size, and Fiscal Adjustment in Industrial Countries Author/Editor: Annett, Anthony Series: Working Paper No. 02/162 Date: September 1, 2002 Subject(s): Fiscal policy \| Developed countries Author's keyword(s): Fiscal Policy; Political Economy

Title: The Role of Private Sector Annuities Markets in an Individual Accounts Reform of a Public Pension Plan Author/Editor: Mackenzie, G. A. Series: Working Paper No. 02/161 Date: September 1, 2002 Subject(s): Pensions Author's keyword(s): Public pension reform \| individual accounts \| annuities market

Title: How Competitive is Irish Manufacturing? Author/Editor: Cerra, Valerie ; Soikkeli, Jarkko Series: Working Paper No. 02/160 Date: September 1, 2002 Subject(s): Manufacturing \| Ireland \| Labor costs \| Real effective exchange rates \| Employment Author's keyword(s): Ireland \| competitiveness \| unit labor costs \| real exchange rate \| employment

Title: Microfinance Institutions and Public Policy Author/Editor: Hardy, Daniel C. L. ; Holden, Paul ; Prokopenko, Vassili Series: Working Paper No. 02/159 Date: September 1, 2002 Subject(s): Public finance \| Bank regulations \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): microfinance \| microcredit \| bank regulation

Title: The Africa Growth and Opportunity Act and Its Rules of Origin: Generosity Undermined? Author/Editor: Mattoo, Aaditya ; Roy, Devesh ; Subramanian, Arvind Series: Working Paper No. 02/158 Date: September 1, 2002 Subject(s): Trade restrictions \| Africa \| Access to foreign markets Author's keyword(s): Trade \| preference \| market access \| Africa

Title: Internal Models, Subordinated Debt, and Regulatory Capital Requirements for Bank Credit Risk Author/Editor: Kupiec, Paul H. Series: Working Paper No. 02/157 Date: September 1, 2002 Subject(s): Capital controls \| Bond issues \| Debt management \| Investment \| Credit risk \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Regulatory capital requirements \| credit VaR \| subordinated debt \| internal risk models

Title: The Determinants of On-the-Job Search: An Empirical Exploration Author/Editor: Fuentes, Andrés Series: Working Paper No. 02/156 Date: September 1, 2002 Subject(s): Unemployment \| Labor markets \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Matching models \| job search

Title: The Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes Since 1990: Evidence From De Facto Policies Author/Editor: Bubula, Andrea ; Ötker, Inci Series: Working Paper No. 02/155 Date: September 1, 2002 Subject(s): Exchange rate regimes \| Exchange rate policy \| Flexible exchange rates \| Floating exchange rates \| Currency pegs Author's keyword(s): Exchange rates \| de facto regimes \| bipolar view \| pegs \| floats \| intermediate regimes

Title: Asian Flu or Wall Street Virus? Price and Volatility Spillovers of the Tech and Non-Tech Sectors in the United States and Asia Author/Editor: Chan-Lau, Jorge A. ; Ivaschenko, Iryna V. Series: Working Paper No. 02/154 Date: September 1, 2002 Subject(s): Prices \| United States \| Hong Kong SAR \| Japan \| Malaysia \| Singapore \| Stock markets \| Economic models \| Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China Author's keyword(s): Price spillovers \| volatility spillovers \| asymmetric GARCH models \| stock markets \| United States \| Asia

Title: Growth in Switzerland: Can Better Performance be Sustained? Author/Editor: Gagales, Anastassios Series: Working Paper No. 02/153 Date: September 1, 2002 Subject(s): Economic growth \| Switzerland Author's keyword(s): Switzerland \| economic growth

Title: Corporate Performance and Governance in Malaysia Author/Editor: Khatri, Yougesh ; Leruth, Luc ; Piesse, J. Series: Working Paper No. 02/152 Date: September 1, 2002 Subject(s): Corporate governance \| Malaysia \| Economic models \| Financial crisis Author's keyword(s): corporate governance \| stochastic frontier \| southeast Asian crisis

Title: Wage Moderation in France Author/Editor: Estevão, Marcello M. ; Nargis, Nigar Series: Working Paper No. 02/151 Date: September 1, 2002 Subject(s): Employment \| France \| Wages \| Wage adjustments \| Labor markets \| Wage moderation Author's keyword(s): employment \| wages \| bargaining \| structural change \| labor market

Title: Are Mexican Business Cycles Asymmetrical? Author/Editor: Santos, Andre Series: Working Paper No. 02/150 Date: September 1, 2002 Subject(s): Business cycles \| Mexico \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Regime-switching models \| Mexican business cycles \| Markov models

Title: Sovereign Defaults: The Role of Volatility Author/Editor: Catão, Luis ; Sutton, Bennett Series: Working Paper No. 02/149 Date: September 1, 2002 Subject(s): Debt problems \| Exchange rate instability \| Emerging markets \| Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism Author's keyword(s): Sovereign debt \| macroeconomic volatility \| emerging markets

Title: Trade and Integration in the Caribbean Author/Editor: Egoumé-Bossogo, Philippe ; Mendis, Chandima Series: Working Paper No. 02/148 Date: September 1, 2002 Subject(s): Trade \| Caribbean \| Antigua and Barbuda \| Bahamas, The \| Barbados \| Belize \| Dominica \| Grenada \| Guyana \| Haiti \| Jamaica \| Montserrat \| St. Kitts and Nevis \| St. Lucia \| St. Vincent and the Grenadines \| Suriname \| Trinidad and Tobago \| Economic models \| Economic cooperation \| Trade integration \| Saint Kitts and Nevis \| Saint Vincent and the Grenadines \| Saint Lucia Author's keyword(s): Trade \| integration \| Caribbean \| gravity model

Title: The Rise in Comovement Across National Stock Markets: Market Integration or Global Bubble? Author/Editor: Brooks, Robin ; Del Negro, Marco Series: Working Paper No. 02/147 Date: September 1, 2002 Subject(s): Stock markets \| Exchange risk \| Industrialization \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Diversification \| risk \| international financial markets \| industrial structure

Title: Determinants of Commercial Bank Performance in Transition: An Application of Data Envelopment Analysis Author/Editor: Grigorian, David A. ; Manole, Vlad Series: Working Paper No. 02/146 Date: September 1, 2002 Subject(s): Commercial banks \| Banking systems \| Transition economies Author's keyword(s): Banking sector development \| economies in transition

August 2002

Title: International Financial Integration and Economic Growth Author/Editor: Edison, Hali J. ; Levine, Ross ; Ricci, Luca Antonio ; Sløk, Torsten Series: Working Paper No. 02/145 Date: August 1, 2002 Subject(s): International financial system \| Economic growth \| Foreign investment \| Private investment \| Developing countries \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): International finance \| economic growth \| foreign direct investment \| portfolio investment and developing countries

Title: Spreading Currency Crises: The Role of Economic Interdependence Author/Editor: Berger, Wolfram ; Wagner, Helmut Series: Working Paper No. 02/144 Date: August 1, 2002 Subject(s): Currencies \| Financial crisis \| Exchange rate policy \| International trade \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): currency crisis \| trade links \| fixed exchange rates \| multiple equilibria \| self-fulfilling expectations

Title: Wage Centralization, Union Bargaining, and Macroeconomic Performance Author/Editor: McHugh, James Series: Working Paper No. 02/143 Date: August 1, 2002 Subject(s): Labor markets \| Employment \| Wages \| Wage bargaining \| Inflation \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): labor markets \| trade unions \| wage centralization

Title: Fiscal Consequences of Armed Conflict and Terrorism in Low- and Middle-Income Countries Author/Editor: Gupta, Sanjeev ; Clements, Benedict J. ; Bhattacharya, Rina ; Chakravarti, Shamit Series: Working Paper No. 02/142 Date: August 1, 2002 Subject(s): Fiscal policy \| Terrorism \| Military expenditures \| Low income developing countries Author's keyword(s): Fiscal policy \| growth \| armed conflict \| terrorism

Title: Liability Dollarization and the Bank Balance Sheet Channel Author/Editor: Choi, Woon Gyu ; Cook, David Series: Working Paper No. 02/141 Date: August 1, 2002 Subject(s): Dollarization \| External debt \| Exchange rate depreciation \| Flexible exchange rates \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Bank balance sheet channel \| foreign currency debt \| sticky prices \| depreciation

Title: Issues in Domestic Petroleum Pricing in Oil-Producing Countries Author/Editor: Gupta, Sanjeev ; Clements, Benedict J. ; Fletcher, Kevin ; Inchauste, Gabriela Series: Working Paper No. 02/140 Date: August 1, 2002 Subject(s): Oil prices \| Oil producing countries \| Oil pricing policy \| Subsidies Author's keyword(s): Oil petroleum subsidies \| domestic prices \| excises \| fiscal policy \| incidence

Title: Liberalization of Trade in Financial Services and Financial Sector Stability (Empirical Approach) Author/Editor: Kireyev, Alexei Series: Working Paper No. 02/139 Date: August 1, 2002 Subject(s): Trade liberalization \| Financial sector \| Financial stability Author's keyword(s): Financial services \| financial sector stability \| trade liberalization

Title: Liberalization of Trade in Financial Services and Financial Sector Stability (Analytical Approach) Author/Editor: Kireyev, Alexei Series: Working Paper No. 02/138 Date: August 1, 2002 Subject(s): Trade liberalization \| Financial sector \| Financial stability Author's keyword(s): Financial services \| financial sector stability \| trade liberalization

Title: Central Bank Financial Strength, Transparency, and Policy Credibility Author/Editor: Stella, Peter Series: Working Paper No. 02/137 Date: August 1, 2002 Subject(s): Central banks \| Transparency \| Central bank policy \| Economic models

Title: Indonesia: Managing Decentralization Author/Editor: Ahmad, Ehtisham ; Mansoor, Ali M. Series: Working Paper No. 02/136 Date: August 1, 2002 Subject(s): Indonesia \| Fiscal management \| Governance Author's keyword(s): Intergovernmental Relations

Title: Changes in the Structure of Earnings During the Polish Transition Author/Editor: Keane, Michael P. ; Prasad, Eswar Series: Working Paper No. 02/135 Date: August 1, 2002 Subject(s): Wages \| Poland \| Labor Author's keyword(s): Wage inequality \| between-and within-group inequality \| education and experience premia \| labor reallocation \| transition

Title: Regional Labor Market Disparities in Belgium Author/Editor: Estevão, Marcello M. Series: Working Paper No. 02/134 Date: August 1, 2002 Subject(s): Labor markets \| Belgium \| Wages \| Unemployment Author's keyword(s): Geography \| labor \| dynamics \| divergences

Title: Bankruptcy Procedures for Sovereigns: A History of Ideas, 1976--2001 Author/Editor: Rogoff, Kenneth ; Zettelmeyer, Jeromin Series: Working Paper No. 02/133 Date: August 1, 2002 Subject(s): Debt \| Financial crisis \| Debt restructuring \| Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism \| Bankruptcy Author's keyword(s): Sovereign bankruptcy \| debt crises \| international bankruptcy court \| Chapter 11

Title: The Speed of Adjustment and the Sequencing of Economic Reforms: Issues and Guidelines for Policymakers Author/Editor: Nsouli, Saleh M. ; Rached, Mounir ; Funke, Norbert Series: Working Paper No. 02/132 Date: August 1, 2002 Subject(s): Economic reform \| Adjustment policy \| Trade liberalization \| Capital account liberalization \| Capital markets \| Price decontrols \| Privatization Author's keyword(s): Adjustment \| reforms \| speed of adjustment \| sequencing

Title: Will There be New Emerging-Market Economies in Africa by the Year 2020? Author/Editor: Berthélemy, Jean-Claude ; Söderling, Ludvig Series: Working Paper No. 02/131 Date: August 1, 2002 Subject(s): Emerging markets \| Africa \| Economic growth \| Education \| Agricultural production \| Labor \| Manpower training Author's keyword(s): Africa \| growth \| productivity \| education \| labor reallocation \| diversification

Title: Current Account and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in the G-7 Countries Author/Editor: Chinn, Menzie David ; Lee, Jaewoo Series: Working Paper No. 02/130 Date: August 1, 2002 Subject(s): Current account \| Group of Seven \| Canada \| France \| Germany \| Italy \| Japan \| United Kingdom \| United States \| Real effective exchange rates \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Real exchange rate \| current account \| intertemporal models \| permanent and temporary shocks

Title: Treasury Reform in Kazakhstan: Lessons for Other Countries Author/Editor: Ramamurthy, S. ; Tandberg, E. Series: Working Paper No. 02/129 Date: August 1, 2002 Subject(s): Budgetary reforms \| Kazakhstan \| Transition economies Author's keyword(s): Treasury reform \| budget reform \| transition economies

Title: Intergovernmental Grants Systems and Management: Applications of a General Framework to Indonesia Author/Editor: Ahmad, Ehtisham ; Ma, Jun ; Searle, Bob ; Piperno, Stefano Series: Working Paper No. 02/128 Date: August 1, 2002 Subject(s): Fiscal policy \| Indonesia \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Indonesia \| Fiscal Decentralization \| Equalization Grants

Title: Lithuania: History and Future of the Currency Board Arrangement: Author/Editor: Alonso-Gamo, Patricia ; Fabrizio, Stefania ; Kramarenko, V. ; Wang, Qing Series: Working Paper No. 02/127 Date: August 1, 2002 Subject(s): Currency boards \| Lithuania \| Real effective exchange rates Author's keyword(s): Real effective exchange rate \| competitiveness \| currency board arrangement

July 2002

Title: Seductions of an Underdevelopment Trap: Systemic Impediments to Agricultural Reform in Russia Author/Editor: Amelina, Maria ; Gershenson, Dmitry Series: Working Paper No. 02/126 Date: July 1, 2002 Subject(s): Agriculture \| Russian Federation \| Agricultural production \| Economic models \| Russia Author's keyword(s): Agriculture \| collective farms \| transition \| Russian Federation

Title: Internal Models-Based Capital Regulation and Bank Risk-Taking Incentives Author/Editor: Kupiec, Paul H. Series: Working Paper No. 02/125 Date: July 1, 2002 Subject(s): Bank supervision \| Credit \| Credit controls \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Regulatory capital requirements \| credit risk \| credit VaR \| internal models

Title: Some International Issues in Commodity Taxation Author/Editor: Keen, Michael Series: Working Paper No. 02/124 Date: July 1, 2002 Subject(s): Commodities \| Taxation \| Tax rates \| Revenues \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Commodity taxation \| cross-border shopping

Title: Migration and Human Capital Formation: Theory and Evidence from the U.S. High School Movement Author/Editor: Ramcharan, Rodney Series: Working Paper No. 02/123 Date: July 1, 2002 Subject(s): Migration \| United States \| Human capital \| Education \| Investment \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Factor movements \| human capital formation

Title: Collateral in Loan Classification and Provisioning Author/Editor: Song, Inwon Series: Working Paper No. 02/122 Date: July 1, 2002 Subject(s): Bank supervision \| Loan guarantees \| Provisioning Author's keyword(s): Banking supervision \| loan classification \| provisioning \| financial regulation

Title: Labor Market Pooling Author/Editor: De Blasio, Guido ; Di Addario, Sabrina Series: Working Paper No. 02/121 Date: July 1, 2002 Subject(s): Labor markets \| Wages \| Employment \| Labor mobility Author's keyword(s): Agglomeration \| labor market \| wages \| human capital \| labor mobility

Title: Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance: Survey and Synthesis Author/Editor: Edison, Hali J. ; Klein, Michael ; Ricci, Luca Antonio ; Sløk, Torsten Series: Working Paper No. 02/120 Date: July 1, 2002 Subject(s): Capital account liberalization \| Capital controls \| Capital flows \| Economic growth \| Financial sector Author's keyword(s): Capital account liberalization \| capital flows \| capital controls \| growth \| and financial development

Title: Demutualization of Securities Exchanges: A Regulatory Perspective Author/Editor: Elliott, Jennifer A. Series: Working Paper No. 02/119 Date: July 1, 2002 Subject(s): Bonds \| Exchange markets \| Financial institutions \| Bank regulations Author's keyword(s): Securities regulation \| stock exchanges

Title: Is Growth Enough? Macroeconomic Policy and Poverty Reduction Author/Editor: Ghura, Dhaneshwar ; Leite, Carlos ; Tsangarides, Charalambos G. Series: Working Paper No. 02/118 Date: July 1, 2002 Subject(s): Economic growth \| Economic policy \| Poverty \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Economic Growth \| Poverty Alleviation \| Macroeconomic Policy \| Bayesian Analysis

Title: It's Not What You Make, It's How You Use IT: Measuring the Welfare Benefits of the IT Revolution Across Countries Author/Editor: Bayoumi, Tamim ; Haacker, Markus Series: Working Paper No. 02/117 Date: July 1, 2002 Subject(s): Terms of trade Author's keyword(s): Technological change \| information technology \| terms of trade \| welfare benefits

Title: Assessing Monthly Progress Towards Annual Fiscal Revenue Targets Author/Editor: Kanda, Daniel Series: Working Paper No. 02/116 Date: July 1, 2002 Subject(s): Fiscal management \| Sri Lanka \| United States \| Revenues \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Sri Lanka \| United States \| fiscal \| revenue \| hypothesis testing

Title: Limits of Conditionality in Poverty Reduction Programs Author/Editor: Cordella, Tito ; Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni Series: Working Paper No. 02/115 Date: July 1, 2002 Subject(s): Development assistance \| Conditionality \| Poverty \| Income distribution \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Aid \| Poverty Reduction \| Conditionality \| Asymmetric Information

Title: Poverty in a Wealthy Economy: The Case of Nigeria Author/Editor: Thomas, Saji ; Canagarajah, Sudharshan Series: Working Paper No. 02/114 Date: July 1, 2002 Subject(s): Economic growth \| Nigeria \| Poverty \| Income distribution Author's keyword(s): Economic growth \| poverty \| income distribution \| targeting \| Nigeria

June 2002

Title: In Finance, Size Matters Author/Editor: Bossone, Biaggio ; Lee, Jong-Kun Series: Working Paper No. 02/113 Date: June 1, 2002 Subject(s): Banks \| Financial institutions \| Financial intermediation \| Financial systems \| Capital markets \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Banks \| Financial infrastructure \| financial intermediation \| financial systems \| financial markets \| systemic scale economie

Title: Aid and Fiscal Management Author/Editor: Bulir, Ales ; Lane, Timothy D. Series: Working Paper No. 02/112 Date: June 1, 2002 Subject(s): Development assistance \| Fiscal management \| Economic growth \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Foreign aid \| fiscal management \| economic growth

Title: Forecasting Inflation in Indonesia Author/Editor: Ramakrishnan, Uma ; Vamvakidis, Athanasios Series: Working Paper No. 02/111 Date: June 1, 2002 Subject(s): Inflation \| Indonesia \| Forecasting models Author's keyword(s): Indonesia \| inflation forecasting

Title: Suggestions for Alternative Measures of Budget Balance for South Africa Author/Editor: Jacobs, Davina F. Series: Working Paper No. 02/110 Date: June 1, 2002 Subject(s): Budget deficits \| South Africa \| Fiscal management Author's keyword(s): Budget deficit \| fiscal indicators \| fiscal stance

Title: Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Monetary Policy in Croatia Author/Editor: Billmeier, Andreas ; Bonato, Leo Series: Working Paper No. 02/109 Date: June 1, 2002 Subject(s): Exchange rate management \| Croatia \| Monetary policy \| Inflation Author's keyword(s): Croatia \| pass-through \| AR \| inflation \| distribution chain \| cointegration

Title: Experience with Budgetary Convergence in the WAEMU Author/Editor: Dore, Ousmane ; Masson, Paul R. Series: Working Paper No. 02/108 Date: June 1, 2002 Subject(s): Fiscal policy \| West African Economic and Monetary Union \| Investment \| Wages Author's keyword(s): Fiscal policy \| convergence \| integration

Title: On the Origins of the Fleming-Mundell Model Author/Editor: Boughton, James M. Series: Working Paper No. 02/107 Date: June 1, 2002 Subject(s): Economic models Author's keyword(s): Fleming \| Mundell \| open-economy macroeconomic models

Title: The Potential Role for Securitizing Public Sector Revenue Flows: An Application to the Phillipines Author/Editor: Chalk, Nigel Andrew Series: Working Paper No. 02/106 Date: June 1, 2002 Subject(s): Fiscal policy \| Philippines \| Public sector \| Bonds \| International capital markets Author's keyword(s): Fiscal Policy \| international finance \| securitization

Title: The Micro Basis of Budget System Reform: The Case of Transitional Economies Author/Editor: Diamond, Jack Series: Working Paper No. 02/105 Date: June 1, 2002 Subject(s): Budgetary reforms \| Government expenditures \| Employment policy \| Government accounting \| Transition economies Author's keyword(s): Budget reform \| government procurement \| human resource management \| internal controls

Title: Long-Run Determinants of Exchange Rate Regimes: A Simple Sensitivity Analysis Author/Editor: Juhn, Grace ; Mauro, Paolo Series: Working Paper No. 02/104 Date: June 1, 2002 Subject(s): Exchange rate regimes Author's keyword(s): Exchange rate regimes \| sensitivity analysis

Title: The Challenge of Fiscal Decentralization in Transition Countries Author/Editor: Dabla-Norris, Era ; Wade, Paul Series: Working Paper No. 02/103 Date: June 1, 2002 Subject(s): Fiscal reforms \| Transition economies Author's keyword(s): Fiscal decentralization \| fiscal reform \| transition

Title: Establishing Initial Conditions in Support of Inflation Targeting Author/Editor: Carare, Alina ; Schaechter, Andrea ; Stone, Mark R. ; Zelmer, Marc Series: Working Paper No. 02/102 Date: June 1, 2002 Subject(s): Inflation targeting \| Monetary policy \| Central banks Author's keyword(s): monetary policy \| monetary policy framework \| inflation targeting \| central bank

Title: Structural Balances and All That: Which Indicators to Use in Assessing Fiscal Policy Author/Editor: Chalk, Nigel Andrew Series: Working Paper No. 02/101 Date: June 1, 2002 Subject(s): Fiscal policy \| Economic models \| Japan \| Germany Author's keyword(s): Structural balances \| fiscal stimulus \| weighted budget balance

Title: Financial Liberalization and Real Investment: Evidence from Turkish Firms Author/Editor: Sancak, Cemile Series: Working Paper No. 02/100 Date: June 1, 2002 Subject(s): Investment \| Turkey \| Capital markets Author's keyword(s): Investment \| capital market imperfections \| financial liberalization \| Turkey

May 2002

Title: Calibrating Your Intuition: Capital Allocation for Market and Credit Risk Author/Editor: Kupiec, Paul H. Series: Working Paper No. 02/99 Date: May 1, 2002 Subject(s): Capital markets \| Credit risk \| Capital Author's keyword(s): value at risk \| market risk \| credit risk \| capital allocation

Title: Extreme Contagion in Equity Markets Author/Editor: Chan-Lau, Jorge A. ; Mathieson, Donald J. ; Yao, James Y. Series: Working Paper No. 02/98 Date: May 1, 2002 Subject(s): Financial crisis \| Capital markets Author's keyword(s): Contagion \| equity markets \| extreme value theory

Title: An Interim Assessment of Ukrainian Output Developments, 2000-01 Author/Editor: Berengaut, Julian ; de Vrijer, J. E. J. ; Elborgh-Woytek, Katrin ; Lewis, Mark ; Lissovolik, Bogdan Series: Working Paper No. 02/97 Date: May 1, 2002 Subject(s): Economic growth \| Ukraine \| Transition economies \| Production Author's keyword(s): Ukraine \| transition \| growth

Title: The Estonian Currency Board: Its Introduction and Role in the Early Success of Estonia's Transition to a Market Economy Author/Editor: Knöbl, Adalbert ; Sutt, Andres ; Zavoiceo, Basil B. Series: Working Paper No. 02/96 Date: May 1, 2002 Subject(s): Currency boards \| Estonia \| Exchange arrangements \| Transition economies

Title: Why is it so Hard to Finance Budget Deficits? Problems of a Developing Country Author/Editor: Feltenstein, Andrew ; Iwata, Shigeru Series: Working Paper No. 02/95 Date: May 1, 2002 Subject(s): Budget deficits \| Pakistan \| Savings \| Interest rates \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Pakistan \| Savings \| Interest Rates

Title: The Role of Internal Audit in Government Financial Management: An International Perspective Author/Editor: Diamond, Jack Series: Working Paper No. 02/94 Date: May 1, 2002 Subject(s): Government accounting \| Budgeting \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Internal audit \| budget systems \| capacity building

Title: Escaping the Curse of Oil? The Case of Gabon Author/Editor: Söderling, Ludvig Series: Working Paper No. 02/93 Date: May 1, 2002 Subject(s): Economic growth \| Gabon \| Oil \| Savings \| Investment \| Incomes policy \| Stabilization funds \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Gabon \| growth \| oil \| diversification \| savings \| investment \| income stabilization fund

Title: Macroeconomic Adjustment in a Highly Dollarized Economy: The Case of Cambodia Author/Editor: de Zamaróczy, Mario ; Sa, Sopanha Series: Working Paper No. 02/92 Date: May 1, 2002 Subject(s): Adjustment policy \| Cambodia \| Dollarization \| Currency substitution \| Exchange rates \| Currency boards Author's keyword(s): Dollarization \| Currency Substitution \| Co-Currency Circulation \| Kalman Filter \| Exchange Rates \| Currency Board Arrangement

Title: Yield Spread as a Leading Indicator of Real Economic Activity-- An Empirical Exercise on the Indian Economy Author/Editor: Kanagasabapathy, K. ; Goyal, Rajan Series: Working Paper No. 02/91 Date: May 1, 2002 Subject(s): Market interest rates \| India \| Industrial production \| Capital markets \| Bonds Author's keyword(s): Yield curve \| yield spread \| lead indicators

Title: More on the Effectiveness of Public Spending on Health Care and Education: A Covariance Structure Model Author/Editor: Baldacci, Emanuele ; Guin-Siu, Maria Teresa ; de Mello, Luiz Series: Working Paper No. 02/90 Date: May 1, 2002 Subject(s): Government expenditures \| Social policy \| Education \| Health care \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Covariance structure models \| social spending \| social indicators

Title: Export Orientation and Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa Author/Editor: Mengistae, Taye ; Pattillo, Catherine A. Series: Working Paper No. 02/89 Date: May 1, 2002 Subject(s): Exports \| Sub-Saharan Africa \| Productivity \| Education Author's keyword(s): Exports \| productivity \| Africa \| learning-by-exporting

Title: Caribbean Offshore Financial Centers: Past, Present, and Possibilities for the Future Author/Editor: Suss, Esther C. ; Williams, Oral ; Mendis, Chandima Series: Working Paper No. 02/88 Date: May 1, 2002 Subject(s): Offshore financial centers \| Caribbean \| Anguilla \| Antigua and Barbuda \| Bahamas, The \| Barbados \| Bermuda \| British Virgin Islands \| Cayman Islands \| Dominica \| Grenada \| St. Kitts and Nevis \| St. Lucia \| St. Vincent and the Grenadines \| Money laundering \| Bank supervision \| Development \| Saint Kitts and Nevis \| Saint Vincent and the Grenadines \| Saint Lucia Author's keyword(s): Offshore financial sectors \| Financial action task force \| money laundering \| development strategies

Title: Fiscal Policy and Economic Activity During Recessions in Advanced Economies Author/Editor: Hemming, Richard ; Mahfouz, Selma ; Schimmelpfennig, Axel Series: Working Paper No. 02/87 Date: May 1, 2002 Subject(s): Economic recession \| Developed countries \| Fiscal policy Author's keyword(s): Recessions \| fiscal response \| economic activity \| fiscal multipliers

Title: Determinants and Repercussions of the Composition of Capital Inflows Author/Editor: Carlson, Mark S. ; Hernández, Leonardo Series: Working Paper No. 02/86 Date: May 1, 2002 Subject(s): Capital flows \| Financial crisis \| Debt Author's keyword(s): Capital flows \| crisis \| contagion

Title: When Is Economic Growth Pro-Poor? Experiences in Malaysia and Pakistan Author/Editor: Khan, Mahmood Hasan Series: Working Paper No. 02/85 Date: May 1, 2002 Subject(s): Economic growth \| Malaysia \| Pakistan \| Poverty Author's keyword(s): Economic growth \| poverty \| Malaysia \| Pakistan

Title: Money, Meat, and Inflation: Using Price Data to Understand an Export Shock in Sudan Author/Editor: Ramcharan, Rodney Series: Working Paper No. 02/84 Date: May 1, 2002 Subject(s): Inflation \| Sudan \| Exchange rates \| Livestock \| Money \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Inflation \| exchange rate \| livestock \| money

Title: Family Attachment and the Decision to Move by Race Author/Editor: Spilimbergo, Antonio ; Ubeda, Luis Series: Working Paper No. 02/83 Date: May 1, 2002 Subject(s): Labor mobility \| Income distribution Author's keyword(s): Internal migration \| panel data \| family

Title: Do "Flexible" Exchange Rates of Developing Countries Behave Like the Floating Exchange Rates of Industrialized Countries? Author/Editor: Wickham, Peter Series: Working Paper No. 02/82 Date: May 1, 2002 Subject(s): Flexible exchange rates \| Floating exchange rates \| Developing countries \| Developed countries Author's keyword(s): Flexible and floating exchange rates

Title: Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms and Inflation in Slovakia Author/Editor: Kuijs, Louis Series: Working Paper No. 02/80 Date: May 1, 2002 Subject(s): Monetary policy \| Slovak Republic \| Inflation \| Transition economies \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Monetary policy \| inflation \| transmission mechanisms \| transition

Title: The Choice Between External and Domestic Debt in Financing Budget Deficits: The Case of Central and West African Countries Author/Editor: Beaugrand, Philippe ; Loko, Boileau ; Mlachila, Montfort Series: Working Paper No. 02/79 Date: May 1, 2002 Subject(s): External debt \| Africa \| Domestic debt \| Budget deficits Author's keyword(s): Budget deficit financing \| external debt \| domestic debt \| Central Africa \| West Africa

Title: Composition of Government Expenditures and Demand for Education in Developing Countries Author/Editor: Dabla-Norris, Era ; Matovu, John Series: Working Paper No. 02/78 Date: May 1, 2002 Subject(s): Government expenditures \| Education \| Economic growth \| Developing countries Author's keyword(s): Government expenditures \| education \| growth

April 2002

Title: Statistical Inference as a Bargaining Game Author/Editor: Ley, Eduardo Series: Working Paper No. 02/81 Date: April 1, 2002 Subject(s): Social policy \| Statistics \| Data analysis Author's keyword(s): Social Welfare Function \| Social Information Function \| Contract Curve \| Nash bargaining solution \| Bayesian Inference \|

Title: Expenditure Composition, Fiscal Adjustment, and Growth in Low-Income Countries Author/Editor: Gupta, Sanjeev ; Clements, Benedict J. ; Baldacci, Emanuele ; Mulas-Granados, Carlos Series: Working Paper No. 02/77 Date: April 1, 2002 Subject(s): Fiscal policy \| Economic growth \| Government expenditures \| Low income developing countries Author's keyword(s): Fiscal policy \| economic growth \| public expenditure composition \| duration of fiscal consolidations

Title: Macroeconomic Management and the Devolution of Fiscal Powers Author/Editor: Drummond, Paulo Flavio Nacif ; Mansoor, Ali M. Series: Working Paper No. 02/76 Date: April 1, 2002 Subject(s): Governance \| Economic policy \| Budgetary policy \| Taxes \| Government expenditures \| Borrowing Author's keyword(s): Fiscal policies \| state and local government \| intergovernmental relations

Title: Growing Up With Capital Flows Author/Editor: Mody, Ashoka ; Murshid, Antu Panini Series: Working Paper No. 02/75 Date: April 1, 2002 Subject(s): Capital flows \| Domestic investment Author's keyword(s): Capital inflows \| domestic investment \| financial integration

Title: International Contagion Effects from the Russian Crisis and the LTCM Near-Collapse Author/Editor: Dungey, Mardi ; Fry, Renee ; González-Hermosillo, Brenda ; Martin, Vance Series: Working Paper No. 02/74 Date: April 1, 2002 Subject(s): Financial crisis \| Russian Federation \| Capital Author's keyword(s): financial crises \| contagion effects \| international spillovers \| Russia \| LTCM

Title: Vested Interests in a Positive Theory of IFI Conditionality Author/Editor: Mayer, Wolfgang ; Mourmouras, Alex Series: Working Paper No. 02/73 Date: April 1, 2002 Subject(s): Conditionality \| Fund Author's keyword(s): Conditionality \| ownership \| IMF \| common agency \| political economy of international financial institutions

Title: Is Policy Ownership An Operational Concept? Author/Editor: Boughton, James M. ; Mourmouras, Alex Series: Working Paper No. 02/72 Date: April 1, 2002 Subject(s): Conditionality \| Fund \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Ownership \| IMF \| conditionality \| common agency models

Title: The Costs and Benefits of Various Wage Bargaining Structures: An Empirical Exploration Author/Editor: Thomas, Alun H. Series: Working Paper No. 02/71 Date: April 1, 2002 Subject(s): Wages \| Unemployment \| Wage bargaining Author's keyword(s): Wage bargaining \| unemployment \| internal factors

Title: You Say You Want A Revolution: Information Technology and Growth Author/Editor: Haacker, Markus ; Morsink, James Series: Working Paper No. 02/70 Date: April 1, 2002 Subject(s): Economic growth \| Information technology Author's keyword(s): Information technology \| technological change \| growth

Title: External Debt and Growth Author/Editor: Pattillo, Catherine A. ; Poirson, Hélène ; Ricci, Luca Antonio Series: Working Paper No. 02/69 Date: April 1, 2002 Subject(s): External debt \| Economic growth \| Debt relief \| HIPC Initiative Author's keyword(s): Growth \| external debt \| debt relief \| HIPC Initiative

Title: The Aging of the Population and the Size of the Welfare State Author/Editor: Razin, Assaf ; Sadka, Efraim ; Swagel, Phillip Series: Working Paper No. 02/68 Date: April 1, 2002 Subject(s): Pensioners \| Economic policy \| Labor \| Tax rates \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Aging \| dependency ratio \| political economy \| labor tax

Title: Fiscal Revenues in South Mediterranean Arab Countries: Vulnerabilities and Growth Potential Author/Editor: Nashashibi, Karim A. Series: Working Paper No. 02/67 Date: April 1, 2002 Subject(s): Tax revenues \| Algeria \| Egypt \| Jordan \| Lebanon \| Morocco \| Syrian Arab Republic \| Tunisia \| West Bank and Gaza Strip \| Exchange rates \| Oil pricing policy \| Value added tax Author's keyword(s): Southern Mediterranean Arab countries \| tax revenue \| VAT petroleum pricing \| exchange rate

Title: The Boom, Bust and Restructuring of Indonesian Banks Author/Editor: Pangestu, Mari ; Habir, Manggi Series: Working Paper No. 02/66 Date: April 1, 2002 Subject(s): Financial crisis \| Indonesia \| Bank reforms \| Bank restructuring Author's keyword(s): Indonesia \| Asian financial crisis \| banking reforms

Title: Reserve Requirements on Foreign Currency Deposits in Sub-Saharan Africa--Main Features and Policy Implications Author/Editor: Kovanen, Arto Series: Working Paper No. 02/65 Date: April 1, 2002 Subject(s): Reserve requirements \| Sub-Saharan Africa \| Foreign currency deposit accounts \| Liquidity Author's keyword(s): Reserve requirements \| foreign currency deposits \| liquidity management

Title: What Moves Capital to Transition Economies? Author/Editor: Garibaldi, Pietro ; Mora, Nada ; Sahay, Ratna ; Zettelmeyer, Jeromin Series: Working Paper No. 02/64 Date: April 1, 2002 Subject(s): Transition economies \| Capital flows \| Foreign investment Author's keyword(s): Transition economies \| capital flows \| foreign direct investment \| portfolio investment

Title: Dread of Depreciation: Measuring Real Exchange Rate Interventions Author/Editor: Dutta, Jayasri Series: Working Paper No. 02/63 Date: April 1, 2002 Subject(s): Exchange rates \| Exchange rate depreciation \| Intervention \| Purchasing power parity Author's keyword(s): Real exchange rates \| interventions \| parity conditions

Title: Holding International Reserves in an Era of High Capital Mobility Author/Editor: Flood, Robert P. ; Marion, Nancy P. Series: Working Paper No. 02/62 Date: April 1, 2002 Subject(s): Reserves \| Capital flows \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): International reserves \| capital mobility

Title: Foreign Direct Investment in Africa--Some Case Studies Author/Editor: Basu, Anupam ; Srinivasan, Krishna Series: Working Paper No. 02/61 Date: April 1, 2002 Subject(s): Foreign direct investment \| Sub-saharan Africa \| Botswana \| Lesotho \| Mauritius \| Mozambique \| Namibia \| Swaziland \| Uganda \| Economic reforms \| Stabilization measures Author's keyword(s): Africa \| foreign direct investment \| stability \| economic reforms

March 2002

Title: Energy Sector Quasi-Fiscal Activities in the Countries of the Former Soviet Union Author/Editor: Petri, Martin ; Taube, Günther ; Tsyvinski, Aleh Series: Working Paper No. 02/60 Date: March 1, 2002 Subject(s): Energy sector \| Former Soviet Union \| Azerbaijan \| Ukraine \| Transition economies \| Fiscal policy \| Energy prices \| Subsidies \| Taxation \| Payments arrears Author's keyword(s): Former soviet union \| transition countries \| fiscal policy \| quasi-fiscal activities \| energy sector \| energy prices

Title: The Role of Corporate, Legal and Macroeconomic Balance Sheet Indicators in Crisis Detection and Prevention Author/Editor: Mulder, Christian B. ; Perrelli, Roberto ; De la Rocha, Manuel Series: Working Paper No. 02/59 Date: March 1, 2002 Subject(s): Financial crisis \| Accounts \| Emerging markets \| External financing \| Crisis prevention \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): External vulnerability \| currency crises \| balance sheet effects \| corporate indicators \| emerging market economies

Title: How Do Treasury Systems Operate in Sub-Saharan Francophone Africa? Author/Editor: Bouley, Dominique ; Fournel, J. ; Leruth, Luc Series: Working Paper No. 02/58 Date: March 1, 2002 Subject(s): Government expenditures \| Sub-Saharan Africa Author's keyword(s): Treasury \| arrears \| monitoring \| expenditure process

Title: Early Ideas on Sovereign Bankruptcy Reorganization: A Survey Author/Editor: Rogoff, Kenneth ; Zettelmeyer, Jeromin Series: Working Paper No. 02/57 Date: March 1, 2002 Subject(s): Debt \| Debt restructuring \| Debt problems \| Bankruptcy Author's keyword(s): Sovereign Bankruptcy \| debt crises \| International Bankruptcy court \| chapter 11

Title: Banking Crises and Bank Resolution: Experiences in Some Transition Economies Author/Editor: Enoch, Charles ; Gulde, Anne Marie ; Hardy, Daniel C. L. Series: Working Paper No. 02/56 Date: March 1, 2002 Subject(s): Financial crisis \| Bank resolution \| Transition economies \| Bulgaria \| Lithuania \| Mongolia \| Bank reforms

Title: Systemic Risk and Financial Consolidation: Are they Related? Author/Editor: De Nicoló, Gianni ; Kwast, Myron L. Series: Working Paper No. 02/55 Date: March 1, 2002 Subject(s): Financial sector \| Banking systems \| Financial risk \| Stock markets Author's keyword(s): Systemic risk \| bank consolidation

Title: The Transmission Mechanism of European Monetary Policy: Is There Heterogeneity? Is it Changing over Time? Author/Editor: Ciccarelli, Matteo ; Rebucci, Alessandro Series: Working Paper No. 02/54 Date: March 1, 2002 Subject(s): Monetary policy \| France \| Germany \| Italy \| Spain \| European Economic and Monetary Union \| Economic policy \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Bayesian esstimation \| european monetary policy \| Gibbs sampling \| Heterogeneity \| Transmission mechanism

Title: Credit Stagnation in Latin America Author/Editor: Barajas, Adolfo ; Steiner, Roberto Series: Working Paper No. 02/53 Date: March 1, 2002 Subject(s): Credit \| Latin America \| Banking systems Author's keyword(s): credit \| banking system \| Latin America

Title: Why White, Not Keynes? Inventing the Post-War International Monetary System Author/Editor: Boughton, James M. Series: Working Paper No. 02/52 Date: March 1, 2002 Subject(s): International monetary system \| Fund Author's keyword(s): IMF \| Harry Dexter White \| Keynes \| open economy models

Title: External Wealth, the Trade Balance, and the Real Exchange Rate Author/Editor: Lane, Philip R. ; Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria Series: Working Paper No. 02/51 Date: March 1, 2002 Subject(s): Financial assets \| Balance of trade \| Exchange rates Author's keyword(s): Net foreign assets \| trade balance \| real exchange rate

Title: Primer on Reforms in a Second-Best Ambiguous Environment: A Case for Gradualism Author/Editor: Erbas, S. Nuri Series: Working Paper No. 02/50 Date: March 1, 2002 Subject(s): Economic reform \| Environment \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Reform \| sequencing \| gradualism \| big bang \| uncertainity \| ambiguity \| flexibility

Title: The Rule of Law and the Pattern of Environment Protection Author/Editor: Fredriksson, Per G. ; Mani, Muthukumara Series: Working Paper No. 02/49 Date: March 1, 2002 Subject(s): Environment \| Corruption \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Property Rights \| Corruption \| Rule of Law \| and Environmental Policy

Title: Candidate Entry, Screening, and the Political Budget Cycle Author/Editor: Le Borgne, Eric ; Lockwood, Ben Series: Working Paper No. 02/48 Date: March 1, 2002 Subject(s): Public sector \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Asymmetric Information \| citizen-candidate \| representative democracy \| signaling games \| and political budget cycles

Title: Foreign Direct Investment in Emerging Markets: Income, Repatriations and Financial Vulnerabillities Author/Editor: Lehmann, Alexander Series: Working Paper No. 02/47 Date: March 1, 2002 Subject(s): Foreign direct investment \| Emerging markets \| Financial crisis \| Outward remittances \| Income Author's keyword(s): Profitability of Foreign Direct Investment \| Cashflows in Multinational Corporations

Title: Regulatory and Supervisory Independence and Financial Stability Author/Editor: Quintyn, Marc ; Taylor, Michael Series: Working Paper No. 02/46 Date: March 1, 2002 Subject(s): Bank regulations \| Bank supervision \| Central bank legislation \| Financial stability Author's keyword(s): Financial Regulation \| Banking Supervision \| Regulatory Agencies \| Agency Independence \| Central Bank Independence

Title: The Impact of Cyclical Factors on the U.S. Balance of Payments Author/Editor: Kandil, Magda E. ; Greene, Joshua E. Series: Working Paper No. 02/45 Date: March 1, 2002 Subject(s): Balance of payments \| United States \| Capital account \| Current account \| Financial sector Author's keyword(s): United States \| Balance of Payments \| current account \| capital and financial account

Title: Optimal Central Bank Conservatism and Monopoly Trade Unions Author/Editor: Berger, Helge ; Hefeker, Carsten ; Schlöb, Ronnie Series: Working Paper No. 02/44 Date: March 1, 2002 Subject(s): Central banks \| Monetary policy \| Labor market policy \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Central bank \| monetary policy \| trade unions \| conservative central banker

February 2002

Title: International Capital Crunches: The Time-Varying Role of Informational Asymmetries Author/Editor: Mody, Ashoka ; Taylor, Mark P. Series: Working Paper No. 02/43 Date: February 1, 2002 Subject(s): Capital flows \| Capital controls \| Developing countries \| Brazil \| Mexico \| Korea, Republic of \| Thailand \| Economic models \| Republic of Korea Author's keyword(s): Capital flows \| disequilibrium \| rationining \| asymmetric information

Title: Wage Inequality in the United Kingdom, 1975-99 Author/Editor: Prasad, Eswar Series: Working Paper No. 02/42 Date: February 1, 2002 Subject(s): Wages \| United Kingdom \| Data analysis Author's keyword(s): Wage and earnings distribution \| micro survey data \| between- and within-group inequality \| composition effects

Title: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Framework of Investment with Financing Constraint Author/Editor: Xie, Danyang ; Yuen, Chi-Wa Series: Working Paper No. 02/41 Date: February 1, 2002 Subject(s): Investment policy \| Capital markets \| Financial crisis \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Investment contraint \| value of the firm

Title: Issues in Global Natural Gas: A Primer and Analysis Author/Editor: Okogu, Bright Erakpoweri Series: Working Paper No. 02/40 Date: February 1, 2002 Subject(s): Natural gas \| Energy sector \| Markets \| Investment \| Pricing policy \| Transport Author's keyword(s): Natural Gas \| LNG \| pipeline \| investment \| gas pricing \| economic rent \| user cost \| transportation constraint

Title: Dornbusch's Overshooting Model After Twenty-Five Years Author/Editor: Rogoff, Kenneth Series: Working Paper No. 02/39 Date: February 1, 2002 Subject(s): Exchange rates \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Overshooting \| exchange rates

Title: The Economic Consequences of HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa Author/Editor: Haacker, Markus Series: Working Paper No. 02/38 Date: February 1, 2002 Subject(s): Health care \| Botswana \| Lesotho \| Malawi \| Mozambique \| Namibia \| South Africa \| Swaziland \| Zambia \| Zimbabwe \| Economic growth \| Education \| Government expenditures

Title: On-the-Job Search and the Beveridge Curve Author/Editor: Fuentes, Andrés Series: Working Paper No. 02/37 Date: February 1, 2002 Subject(s): Labor markets \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Matching models \| job search \| vacancies

Title: Columbia or High School? Understanding the Roles of Education in Development Author/Editor: Ramcharan, Rodney Series: Working Paper No. 02/36 Date: February 1, 2002 Subject(s): Education \| Development \| Economic growth \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): education \| development \| growth

Title: Social Sector Spending in a Panel of Countries Author/Editor: Baqir, Reza Series: Working Paper No. 02/35 Date: February 1, 2002 Subject(s): Government expenditures \| Social policy \| Education \| Health care Author's keyword(s): Government spending \| social sectors \| democracy

Title: Monetary Rules for Emerging Market Economies Author/Editor: Ghironi, Fabio ; Rebucci, Alessandro Series: Working Paper No. 02/34 Date: February 1, 2002 Subject(s): Monetary policy \| Argentina \| Emerging markets \| Business cycles \| Exchange risk \| Social policy \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Argentina \| business cycles \| emerging markets \| monetary rules \| risk premia \| welfare

Title: Trust as a Means of Improving Corporate Governance and Efficiency Author/Editor: Chami, Ralph ; Fullenkamp, Connel Series: Working Paper No. 02/33 Date: February 1, 2002 Subject(s): Corporate governance \| Economic models \| Profits Author's keyword(s): asymmetric information \| efficiency \| trust \| moral hazard \| corporate goverance

Title: Purchasing Power Parity and New Trade Theory Author/Editor: MacDonald, Ronald ; Ricci, Luca Antonio Series: Working Paper No. 02/32 Date: February 1, 2002 Subject(s): Purchasing power parity \| Exchange rates \| Trade \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): New trade theory \| real exchange rates \| purchasing power parity \| productivity differentials \| the PPP puzzle

Title: A Model of Multiple Equilibria in Geographic Labor Mobility Author/Editor: Spilimbergo, Antonio ; Ubeda, Luis Series: Working Paper No. 02/31 Date: February 1, 2002 Subject(s): Labor mobility \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Migration \| multiple equilibria

Title: Nominal Exchange Rate Anchoring Under Inflation Inertia Author/Editor: Calvo, Guillermo ; Celasun, Oya ; Kumhof, Michael Series: Working Paper No. 02/30 Date: February 1, 2002 Subject(s): Exchange rate policy \| Inflation \| Pricing policy \| Stabilization measures \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Inflation inertia \| staggered pricing \| exchange rate based stabilization

Title: A Fiscal Theory of the Currency Risk Premium and of Sterilized Intervention Author/Editor: Kumhof, Michael ; van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn Series: Working Paper No. 02/29 Date: February 1, 2002 Subject(s): Fiscal policy \| Bond markets \| Stock markets \| Exchange risk \| Risk premium \| Intervention \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Sterilized intervention \| fiscal non-neutrality \| currency risk premium \| portfolio balance theory

Title: The Forward Premium Puzzle Revisited Author/Editor: Meredith, Guy ; Ma, Yue Series: Working Paper No. 02/28 Date: February 1, 2002 Subject(s): Exchange rates \| Exchange premiums \| Interest rates \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Exchange rates \| forward premium puzzle \| uncovered interest parity

Title: Commodity Currencies and Empirical Exchange Rate Puzzles Author/Editor: Chen, Yu-chin ; Rogoff, Kenneth Series: Working Paper No. 02/27 Date: February 1, 2002 Subject(s): Commodity prices \| Australia \| Canada \| New Zealand \| Currencies \| Exchange rates \| Capital flows \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): commodity price stocks \| capital flows

Title: The Output Decline in Asian Crisis Countries: Investment Aspects Author/Editor: Greene, Joshua E. Series: Working Paper No. 02/25 Date: February 1, 2002 Subject(s): Production \| Hong Kong SAR \| Indonesia \| Korea, Republic of \| Malaysia \| Philippines \| Singapore \| Thailand \| Financial crisis \| Investment \| Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China \| Republic of Korea Author's keyword(s): Output \| output decline \| asian crisis \| investment \| balance sheet

Title: Assessing Accuracy and Reliability: A Note Based on Approaches Used in National Accounts and Balance of Payments Statistics Author/Editor: Carson, Carol S. ; Laliberté, Lucie Series: Working Paper No. 02/24 Date: February 1, 2002 Subject(s): National accounts \| Balance of payments statistics \| United States \| United Kingdom \| Australia \| Canada Author's keyword(s): Accuracy \| data quality assessment framework \| judgmental evaluation \| reliability \| revisions \| revision studies \| reliabilit

Title: Why is Unemployment High in the Philippines? Author/Editor: Brooks, Ray Series: Working Paper No. 02/23 Date: February 1, 2002 Subject(s): Unemployment \| Philippines \| Employment \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Phillipines \| unemployment \| employment

Title: Budget System Reform in Transitional Economies: The Experience of Russia Author/Editor: Diamond, Jack Series: Working Paper No. 02/22 Date: February 1, 2002 Subject(s): Budgets \| Russian Federation \| Transition economies \| Fiscal management \| Budgetary reforms Author's keyword(s): Budget system reform \| Russia

Title: The New Russian Budget System: A Critical Assessment and Future Reform Agenda Author/Editor: Diamond, Jack Series: Working Paper No. 02/21 Date: February 1, 2002 Subject(s): Budgets \| Russian Federation \| Budgetary policy \| Budgetary reforms \| Russia Author's keyword(s): Budget system law \| budget reform \| Russia

Title: Lending Booms, Real Estate Bubbles and The Asian Crisis Author/Editor: Collyns, Charles ; Senhadji Semlali, A. Series: Working Paper No. 02/20 Date: February 1, 2002 Subject(s): Financial systems \| Asia \| Financial crisis \| Asset prices \| Bank regulations \| Exchange markets Author's keyword(s): Lending Booms \| Real Estate Bubbles \| Asian Crisis

Title: Debt, Deficits, and Age-Specific Mortality Author/Editor: Faruqee, Hamid Series: Working Paper No. 02/19 Date: February 1, 2002 Subject(s): Debt \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Government Debt \| saving

Title: A New Rule: "The Swiss Debt Brake" Author/Editor: Danninger, Stephan Series: Working Paper No. 02/18 Date: February 1, 2002 Subject(s): Fiscal management \| Switzerland \| Budgets \| Public debt \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Fiscal rules \| fiscal sustainability

Title: The Role of Affordable Mortgages in Improving Living Standards and Stimulating Growth: A Survey of Selected MENA Countries Author/Editor: Erbas, S. Nuri ; Nothaft, Frank E. Series: Working Paper No. 02/17 Date: February 1, 2002 Subject(s): Economic growth \| Algeria \| Egypt \| Jordan \| Mexico \| Morocco \| Tunisia \| Turkey \| United States \| Poverty \| Social safety nets Author's keyword(s): housing supply \| mortgage finance availability \| growth \| poverty

Title: Population Aging and Its Macroeconomic Implications: A Framework for Analysis Author/Editor: Faruqee, Hamid Series: Working Paper No. 02/16 Date: February 1, 2002 Subject(s): Population \| Savings \| Current account Author's keyword(s): Population aging \| saving \| current account

January 2002

Title: Activation of a Modern Industry Author/Editor: Wang, Ping ; Xie, Danyang Series: Working Paper No. 02/15 Date: January 1, 2002 Subject(s): Industrialization \| Consumption \| Skilled labor \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Industrial transformation \| spillovers \| subsistence

Title: Exchange Market Pressure, Currency Crises, and Monetary Policy: Additional Evidence from Emerging Markets Author/Editor: Tanner, Evan Series: Working Paper No. 02/14 Date: January 1, 2002 Subject(s): Exchange markets \| Financial crisis \| Monetary policy \| Credit \| Exchange rates \| Reserves Author's keyword(s): Currency crisis \| monetary policy \| exchange market pressure \| domestic credit \| exchange rate \| reserves \|

Title: Sources of Economic Growth in East Asia: A Nonparametric Assessment Author/Editor: Iwata, Shigeru ; Khan, Mohsin S. ; Murao, Hiroshi Series: Working Paper No. 02/13 Date: January 1, 2002 Subject(s): Economic growth \| Asia Author's keyword(s): East Asia \| TFP growth \| nonparametric regression

Title: Mexico: Experiences with Pro-Poor Expenditure Policies Author/Editor: Corbacho, Ana ; Schwartz, Gerd Series: Working Paper No. 02/12 Date: January 1, 2002 Subject(s): Government expenditures \| Mexico \| Income distribution \| Poverty Author's keyword(s): Mexico \| Income distribution \| government expenditure

Title: Capital Flows to Transition Economies: Master or Servant Author/Editor: Lipschitz, Leslie ; Lane, Timothy D. ; Mourmouras, Alex Series: Working Paper No. 02/11 Date: January 1, 2002 Subject(s): Capital flows \| Transition economies Author's keyword(s): Central and Eastern Europe \| capital flows \| convergence \| macroeconomic policy

Title: Impact of Structural Reforms on Productivity Growth in Industrial Countries Author/Editor: Salgado, Ranil Series: Working Paper No. 02/10 Date: January 1, 2002 Subject(s): Productivity \| OECD \| Industrial production \| Structural adjustment \| Trade \| Markets Author's keyword(s): Productivity \| growth \| structural reforms \| trade \| product markets

Title: Structural Vulnerability and Currency Crises Author/Editor: Ghosh, Swart R. ; Ghosh, Atish R. Series: Working Paper No. 02/9 Date: January 1, 2002 Subject(s): Currencies \| Financial crisis \| Payments imbalances \| Governance Author's keyword(s): Currency crises \| structural indicators \| corporate governance \| binary recursive trees

Title: The Corporate Spread Curve and Industrial Production in the United States Author/Editor: Chan-Lau, Jorge A. ; Ivaschenko, Iryna V. Series: Working Paper No. 02/8 Date: January 1, 2002 Subject(s): Economic forecasting \| United States \| Industrial production \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Investment grade bonds \| corporate spreads \| term structure \| real activity \| forecasting \| GMM estimation \| United States

Title: Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes Author/Editor: Kumar, Manmohan S. ; Moorthy, Uma ; Perraudin, W. R. M. Series: Working Paper No. 02/7 Date: January 1, 2002 Subject(s): Exchange rates \| Emerging markets \| Trade \| Devaluation \| Economic models

Title: Financial Reforms and Interest Rate Spreads in the Commercial Banking System in Malawi Author/Editor: Mlachila, Montfort ; Chirwa, Ephraim W. Series: Working Paper No. 02/6 Date: January 1, 2002 Subject(s): Financial sector \| Malawi \| Commercial banks \| Interest rates \| Bank reforms Author's keyword(s): Commercial banks; Interest spreads \| Financial Liberalization \| Malawi

Title: Fiscal Sustainability and Monetary versus Fiscal Dominance: Evidence from Brazil, 1991-2000 Author/Editor: Tanner, Evan ; Ramos, Alberto M. Series: Working Paper No. 02/5 Date: January 1, 2002 Subject(s): Fiscal policy \| Monetary policy \| Brazil Author's keyword(s): Intertemporal solvency \| monetary and fiscal dominance \| fiscal theory of the price level \| vector autoregression

Title: Financial Crises, Poverty, and Income Distribution Author/Editor: Baldacci, Emanuele ; de Mello, Luiz ; Inchauste, Gabriela Series: Working Paper No. 02/4 Date: January 1, 2002 Subject(s): Financial crisis \| Poverty \| Income distribution \| Mexico \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Financial crisis \| poverty \| income distribution \| Mexico

Title: Currency Crises and Uncertainty About Fundamentals Author/Editor: Prati, Alessandro ; Sbracia, M. Series: Working Paper No. 02/3 Date: January 1, 2002 Subject(s): Currencies \| Exchange rates \| Economic policy \| Public information \| Economic models Author's keyword(s): Speculative attack \| exchange rate crisis \| public and private information

Title: The Austrian Theory of Business Cycles: Old Lessons for Modern Economic Policy? Author/Editor: Oppers, Stefan E. Series: Working Paper No. 02/2 Date: January 1, 2002 Subject(s): Business cycles \| Economic policy \| Monetary policy Author's keyword(s): Austrian School \| Hayek \| Friedrich (1899-1992); business cycles \| monetary policy

Title: The Impact of Changes in Stock Prices and House Prices on Consumption in OECD Countries Author/Editor: Ludwig, Alexander ; Sløk, Torsten Series: Working Paper No. 02/1 Date: January 1, 2002 Subject(s): Stock markets \| Consumption \| Asset price