Fiscal Expectations Under the Stability and Growth Pact: Evidence from Survey Data

By Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, Jan-Christoph Rülke

March 1, 2011

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Format: Chicago

Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, and Jan-Christoph Rülke. Fiscal Expectations Under the Stability and Growth Pact: Evidence from Survey Data, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2011) accessed September 26, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

The paper uses survey data to analyze whether financial market expectations on government budget deficits changed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). Our findings indicate that accuracy of financial expert deficit forecasts increased in France. Convergence between the European Commission's and market experts’ deficit forecasts also increased in France, Italy, and the United Kingdom, particularly during the period after SGP’s reform in 2005. Yet, convergence between markets’ forecasts and those of the French, German, and Italian national fiscal authorities seems not to have increased significantly during the SGP.

Subject: Budget planning and preparation, Fiscal policy, GDP forecasting, Government debt management, Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts

Keywords: WP

Publication Details

Pages:

40
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2011/048
Stock No:

WPIEA2011048
ISBN:

9781455218943
ISSN:

1018-5941

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